john marcy december 18, 2012 gl bal last-line of defense (gold)
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John MarcyDecember 18, 2012
Gl bal Last-Line of Defense (GOLD)
Gl bal Last-Line of Defense (GOLD)
Barringer Crater, AZ
150 m (Toutatis 4 km)
1.2 km
Impact Damage: 1000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs = 1000 x 15 kt = 15 Mt
History
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John T. MarcyJohn.Marcy@gmail.com
1908 – Tunguska Event – A 50 m asteroid exploded over Siberia with the equivalent damage of 600 Hiroshima nuclear bombs
1967 – A group of MIT students look to develop first asteroid interceptor with Project Icarus
January 1967 – Outer Space Treaty signed between the U.S., Russia, and the U.KJuly 1991 – STrategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) signed
1998 – Congress mandates for discovery of 90% of asteroids greater than 1 km2005 – Congress mandates for discovery of 90% of asteroids greater than 140 m by the year 2020, funds pendingApril 2010 – New START treaty signed between the U.S. and Russia
October 2012– Hurricane Sandy hit New Jersey, total damages reaching ~ $60b2029 – The 300 m asteroid 99942 Apophis will miss Earth by approximately one tenth the distance from the Earth to Moon
August 2005– Hurricane Katrina hits New Orleans, total damages reaching ~ $81b
Context
Too impractical
Need more power
for short timeline
Too risky – too close
Nuclear fallout
and reformation
possible
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John T. MarcyJohn.Marcy@gmail.com
• There currently exists no mitigation plan against eventual Earth impact with these smaller, yet still powerful asteroids
The GOLDen ScenarioAssumptions
1. Incoming asteroid trajectory2. Very dense incoming asteroid3. Poor albedo4. Subsurface detonation is 100
times more effective5. Correct midcourse and terminal
guidance methods in place
No nuclear fallout!
2nd
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John T. MarcyJohn.Marcy@gmail.com
Timeline
> 30 day launch window needed
Launch
~3 min into flightseparation
Initial maneuver and Guide autonomously
Sensors on with~24 hours to go
EKV separates and detonates
Nuclear warhead detonateson area impacted by EKV
Simulation
Inputs (Apophis intercept 2029):• M = 2.7E+20 kg• a = 0.92241 AU• e = 0.19121• Enuc = 1.0E+17 J (20 X EB83 = 5 PJ)• Lead Time = 30 days
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EarthApophis BeforeApophis After
Simulation Close-up
Inputs (Apophis intercept 2029):• M = 2.7E+20 kg• a = 0.92241 AU• e = 0.19121• Enuc = 1.0E+17 J (20 X EB83)• Lead Time = 30 days
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John T. MarcyJohn.Marcy@gmail.com
EarthApophis BeforeApophis After
Trajectories
Heliocentric Coordinate X (AU) Heliocentric Coordinate X (AU)
Hel
ioce
ntric
Coo
rdin
ate
Y (A
U)
Hel
ioce
ntric
Coo
rdin
ate
Y (A
U)
Heliocentric Coordinate X (AU) Heliocentric Coordinate X (AU)
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John T. MarcyJohn.Marcy@gmail.com
EarthApophis BeforeApophis After
Impact
Simulation OutputsLead Time
Alt. at Intercept
Alt at Intercept
Impact Angle
ΔVast Safe Distance
ToF Transfer Angle
ΔV Prop. Mass
days Re AU deg km/s Re days deg km/s kg
15 988.5 0.042 0 0.136 178.5 14 19.4 1.402 496.9
30 1.77E+03 0.072 0 0.140 165.5 24 34.3 3.858 1796.3
“ “ “ 15 0.135 161.7 “ “ “ “
“ “ “ 30 0.121 146.6 “ “ “ “
“ “ “ 45 0.099 127.3 “ “ “ “
“ “ “ 60 0.070 100.2 “ “ “ “
45 2.30E+03 0.098 0 0.143 157.2 36 49.3 7.073 4853.0
60 2.59E+03 0.110 0 0.144 153.5 45 64.4 12.145 16286.3
75 2.61E+-3 0.111 0 0.144 154.8 52 79.6 19.047 71657.0
Note: Distance to Moon ~ 60 Re
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GOLD
John T. MarcyJohn.Marcy@gmail.com
The GOLD Spacecraft
Nuclear Device
Heat Shield
Fuzing Mast
55 in
23 in
Mass = 65.3 kg
Nuc Mass = 1100 kgEst. Total Dry Mass = 1500 kg
Cooling System
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John T. MarcyJohn.Marcy@gmail.com
• The Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle (EKV) is a missile that has been in service since 2004 and widely tested against an array of targets
12 ft
4.5 ft
The Global Planetary Defensive Agency (GPDA)
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GOLD
John T. MarcyJohn.Marcy@gmail.com
• Tasks:• Maintain the three stations across the Equator• Monitor the skies for incoming threats• Reallocate of the global nuclear arsenal• Analyze the scenario for the last line of defense
• Location of impact vs. destruction
Limitations;COSMIC SYNERGY Government
Infrastructure :GOLD
John T. MarcyJohn.Marcy@gmail.com
Trade Studies will be performed to follow up on the following questions:– How does GOLD’s effectiveness compare with Dr. Bong
Wei’s proposition– Probability of collision with Earth, necessary?– Currently using just the IR sensor of the EKV, sensitive
enough?– Ability to maneuver a 1000 kg payload?– Possible explosion vs actual push?– How to shape a subsurface nuclear explosion to
maximize resultant ΔV and change asteroid trajectory?
Phase 1 – A Real End-to-End Mission Simulation – No Threat Sim (NTS)
;COSMIC SYNERGY Government Infrastructure :
GOLD
John T. MarcyJohn.Marcy@gmail.com
• Components identified – launcher, sim weapon, integration strategy, ops• Simulation start• Target identified• Integration• Launch• Midcourse Guidance• Target acquired• Terminal Guidance• Phasing and trajectory alignment• Close in sequence – includes precursory camera flyby ?• Charge Delivery and detonation• Reconnaissance and threat defused assurance/verification
Phase 2 – Monte Carlo Analysis;COSMIC SYNERGY Government
Infrastructure :GOLD
John T. MarcyJohn.Marcy@gmail.com
• Amount of lead time• Variability in nuclear weapon effectiveness• Mission planning• Possibility to change mission midflight?• Classification of incoming asteroid
References1. Houdu, Guillaume. “Hypervelocity Nuclear Interceptor Proposed for Asteroid Impactors”.
http://www.spacesafetymagazine.com/2012/09/25/innovative-hypervelocity-nuclear-interceptor-spacecraft-mitigating-impact-threat-asteroids/. 25 September 2012
2. Maccone, Caldio. “Planetary Defense From Space: Part I – Keplerian Theory”. Acta Astronautica. 4 May 2004. 3. Thangavelu, Madhu. “Putting Surplus Nukes to Good Use”. www.spacenews.com. 12 April 2010.4. Wei, Bong. “An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation
Mission Architecture Development”. NIAC Fall Symposium, November 14-15, 2012, Hampton, VA 5. Wei, Bong. “Hypervelocity Nuclear Interceptors for Asteroid Deflection or Disruption”. 2011 IAA Planetary Defense
Conference, 09-12 May 2011.6. Wei, Bong. “Optimal Fragmentation and Dispersion of Hazardous Near-Earth Objects”. NIAC Phase I Final Report.
25 September 2012.7. http://cosmoquest.org/forum/showthread.php/40725-How-to-Colonize-the-Moon-without-breaking-NASA-s-
budget8. http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/26/rush-on-to-find-fragments-of-california-meteor/9. http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/12/07/thousands-of-nearby-asteroids-are-big-enough-to-harm-earth-nasa/10. http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/programs/linear.html
http://spacewatch.lpl.arizona.edu/11. http://timeforchange.org/nuclear-energy-and-nuclear-weapons-per-country12. http://www.adrc.iastate.edu/13. http://www.defense.gov/news/briefingslide.aspx?briefingslideid=18214. http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/nasa-plans-armageddon-spacecraft-to-blast-asteroid-215924/15. http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-13816. http://www.missilethreat.com/missiledefensesystems/id.17/system_detail.asp17. http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=12842&page=118. http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/deepimpact/mission/index.html19. http://www.strath.ac.uk/space/research/missionsystems/asteroiddeflectiontechnologies/
Thank you!!
Back-up Slides
Stand-off Vs. Subsurface Shaped Nuclear Detonation
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John T. MarcyJohn.Marcy@gmail.com
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