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JOBS MULTIPLIERS: EVIDENCE FROM A LARGE FISCAL STIMULUS IN SPAIN
Mario Alloza and Carlos Sanz
Documentos de Trabajo N.º 1922
2019
JOBS MULTIPLIERS: EVIDENCE FROM A LARGE FISCAL STIMULUS IN SPAIN
JOBS MULTIPLIERS: EVIDENCE FROM A LARGE FISCAL
STIMULUS IN SPAIN (*)
Mario Alloza and Carlos Sanz
BANCO DE ESPAÑA
Documentos de Trabajo. N.º 1922
2019
(*) We thank Henrique Basso, Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Enrique Moral-Benito, Omar Rachedi, Roberto Ramos, Tano Santos, Jan Stuhler, Javier Vallés, Ernesto Villanueva, and seminar participants at the Banco de España for helpful comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily coincide with the views of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem. Alloza: Banco de España, Calle Alcalá 48, 28014 Madrid (Spain), m.alloza@bde.es. Sanz: Banco de España, Calle Alcalá 48, 28014 Madrid (Spain), carlossanz@bde.es.
The Working Paper Series seeks to disseminate original research in economics and fi nance. All papers have been anonymously refereed. By publishing these papers, the Banco de España aims to contribute to economic analysis and, in particular, to knowledge of the Spanish economy and its international environment.
The opinions and analyses in the Working Paper Series are the responsibility of the authors and, therefore, do not necessarily coincide with those of the Banco de España or the Eurosystem.
The Banco de España disseminates its main reports and most of its publications via the Internet at the following website: http://www.bde.es.
Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged.
© BANCO DE ESPAÑA, Madrid, 2019
ISSN: 1579-8666 (on line)
Abstract
We estimate the employment effect of a large fi scal stimulus in Spain (PlanE), in which
the national government transferred funds to municipalities to carry out local investment
projects. Using a difference-in-difference approach by exploiting variation in the timing of the
execution of projects across municipalities, we fi nd that 100,000 euros of stimulus reduced
unemployment by 0.62 jobs per year. We allow for possible spatial effects, i.e. the propagation
of the stimulus to neighboring municipalities, and fi nd that these are sizable, representing
8.4% of the “local” effect. We also present evidence on the transmission mechanism, fi nding
that the effect was: (i) initially concentrated in the construction and industrial sectors, but
later spilled over to the broader economy, (ii) larger for males than females, (iii) larger when
the shock represented a higher share of the budget, and (iv) not larger for municipalities
headed by more educated mayors. Our estimate of the multiplier falls in the lower range of
previous work.
Keywords: fi scal policy, local fi scal multipliers, spillovers.
JEL classifi cation: E24, E62, H30, H72.
Resumen
En este trabajo, estimamos los efectos en el empleo de un gran estímulo fi scal en España
(conocido como «Plan E»), por el cual el Gobierno central transfi rió fondos a los municipios
para llevar a cabo proyectos de inversión. Explotando la variación temporal en la ejecución de
los proyectos en los distintos municipios mediante un análisis de diferencias en diferencias,
encontramos que 100.000 euros de estímulo redujeron el desempleo en 0,62 empleos-año.
Consideramos la posibilidad de que existan efectos espaciales, esto es, la propagación
del estímulo a municipios vecinos, y encontramos que son considerables: suponen un
8,4 % del efecto «local». También presentamos evidencia sobre la transmisión del estímulo, y
vemos que el efecto: i) estuvo inicialmente concentrado en la construcción y en la industria,
pero se extendió luego al resto de la economía; ii) fue mayor para los hombres que para
las mujeres; iii) fue mayor cuando el estímulo fue más grande en proporción al presupuesto
municipal, y iv) no fue mayor en municipios con alcaldes de un mayor nivel educativo.
Nuestra estimación del multiplicador se encuentra en el rango inferior de lo hallado por
estudios anteriores.
Palabras clave: política fi scal, multiplicadores fi scales locales, efectos de desbordamiento.
Códigos JEL: E24, E62, H30, H72.
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 7 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
i
i i
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 8 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 9 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 10 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 11 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
xi,t
i t
yi,t
i t
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 12 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
yi,t+h i t+h h ∈ [−24, 24]xi,t−j i t−j αi
γt ξi,t
ρ βh,j
M = 12
M
h h = 0 β0,0 h > 0 βh,0
h
yi,t+h = ρyi,t−1 +M∑
j=0
βh,jxi,t−j + αi + γt + ξi,t+h,
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 13 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
T−(1 + ρ)/(T − 1) ρ = 0.8
h < 0 βh,0 h
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 14 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
h < 0
h < −12 h < −12
h ∈ (−12, 0)
h
βh,0 h < 0
h > 0
h ∈ [6, 12]
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 15 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 16 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
R i t zRi,t
σh,j
R = 20
2%
yi,t+h = ρ∗yi,t−1 +M∑
j=0
β∗h,jxi,t−j +M∑
j=0
σh,jzRi,t−j + α∗i + γ∗t + ξ∗i,t+h,
σh,j
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 17 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
βh,j β∗h,j
R = 20
R = 10
1%
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 18 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 19 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 20 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 21 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
< 25
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 22 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 23 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 24 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 25 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 26 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
0.0
02.0
04.0
06.0
08.0
1D
ensi
ty
01jan2009 01jul2009 01jan2010 01jul2010 01jan201Starting date of project
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 27 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
010
0020
0030
0040
00Fi
scal
stim
ulus
(milli
ons
euro
s)
2000
3000
4000
5000
Une
mpl
oym
ent (
thou
sand
per
sons
)
2006m1 2008m1 2010m1 2012m1 2014m1 2016m1Date
unemployment (left) fiscal stimulus (right)
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 28 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
015
−.00
01−.
0000
50
.000
05D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 29 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
015
−.00
01−.
0000
50
.000
05D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
benchmark 0 lags yt 6 lags yt
12 lags yt 6 lags xt 24 lags xt
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 30 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
015
−.00
01−.
0000
50
.000
05D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
benchmark with dep. var. outlierswith 2009 indep. var. outliers with 2010 indep. var. outliers
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 31 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
04−.
0002
0.0
002
.000
4D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months Relative to Shock
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 32 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−6−4
−20
Num
ber o
f job
s pe
r milli
on e
uros
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24Time (months)
local effect spatial effect
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 33 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
02−.
0001
0.0
001
.000
2D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent −
con
stru
ctio
n)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
050
.000
5D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent −
con
stru
ctio
n)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
03−.
0002
−.00
010
.000
1D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent i
ndus
try)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
06−.
0004
−.00
020
.000
2.0
004
Diff
eren
ce in
log(
unem
ploy
men
t ind
ustry
)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
015
−.00
01−.
0000
50
.000
05.0
001
Diff
eren
ce in
log(
unem
ploy
men
t ser
vice
s)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
04−.
0002
0.0
002
Diff
eren
ce in
log(
unem
ploy
men
t ser
vice
s)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
04−.
0002
0.0
002
.000
4D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent a
gric
ultu
re)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
2−.
001
0.0
01.0
02D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent a
gric
ultu
re)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 34 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
015
−.00
01−.
0000
50
.000
05.0
001
Diff
eren
ce in
log(
mal
e un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
06−.
0004
−.00
020
.000
2.0
004
Diff
eren
ce in
log(
mal
e un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
02−.
0001
0.0
001
Diff
eren
ce in
log(
fem
ale
unem
ploy
men
t)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
020
.000
2.0
004
.000
6D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(fe
mal
e un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 35 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
05.
0e−0
4.0
01.0
015
Den
sity
0 1000 2000 3000 4000Municipal expenditure (budget) per capita in 2009
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 36 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
02−.
0001
0.0
001
Diff
eren
ce in
log(
unem
ploy
men
t)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
low spending high spending
−.00
04−.
0002
0.0
002
.000
4D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
low spending high spending
−.00
02−.
0001
0.0
001
.000
2D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
without college with college
−.00
050
.000
5D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
without college with college
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 37 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 38 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
025
0050
0075
0010
000
tota
l cap
ital t
rans
fers
(milli
ons
euro
s)
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
initial budget actual budget
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 39 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 40 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
(19apr2009,30oct2009](01apr2009,19apr2009](15mar2009,01apr2009][10jan2009,15mar2009]No data
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 41 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
005
0.0
0005
.000
1D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(em
ploy
men
t)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 42 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
015
−.00
01−.
0000
50
.000
05D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
local effect (benchmark specification)direct effect (spatial specification)
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 43 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
04−.
0002
0.0
002
.000
4D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
R=20 R=10 R=30
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 44 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
04−.
0002
0.0
002
.000
4D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
benchmark 0 lags yt 6 lags yt
12 lags yt 6 lags xt 24 lags xt
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 45 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
04−.
0002
0.0
002
.000
4D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
benchmark with dep.var. outlierswith 2009 indep. var. outliers with 2010 indep. var. outliers
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 46 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
−.00
010
.000
1.0
002
Diff
eren
ce in
log(
empl
oym
ent)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 47 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
< 25 < 25
−.00
03−.
0002
−.00
010
.000
1.0
002
Diff
eren
ce in
log(
unem
ploy
men
t − y
oung
s)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
1−.
0005
0.0
005
.001
Diff
eren
ce in
log(
unem
ploy
men
t − y
oung
s)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
25− 45 25− 45
−.00
015
−.00
01−.
0000
50
.000
05.0
001
Diff
eren
ce in
log(
unem
ploy
men
t − a
dults
)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
04−.
0002
0.0
002
.000
4D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent −
adu
lts)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
> 45 > 45
−.00
015
−.00
01−.
0000
50
.000
05D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent −
old
)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
−.00
04−.
0002
0.0
002
.000
4D
iffer
ence
in lo
g(un
empl
oym
ent −
old
)
−24 −16 −8 0 8 16 24Months relative to shock
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 48 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
ΔYt+h = βYh ΔGt
ΔEt+h = βEh ΔGt,
Yt+h t + h Et+h
βYh
βEh
yt+h = ΔYt+h
Ytet+h = ΔEt+h
Et
gt = ΔGt
Yt
et+h = βEh
Yt
Et
gt.
Yt = A (HtEt)γ (KP
t
)α (KG
t
)ζ,
Lt = HtEt
t KPt KG
t
α = ζ = 0
t
BANCO DE ESPAÑA 49 DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO N.º 1922
ζ
ζ
γ
ht = ΔHt+h
Htχ = ht
et
βYh =
yt+h
gt=
yt+h
et+h
et+h
gt≈ (1− γ)(1 + χ)
Yy
Et
βEh .
(1−γ)(1+χ) ≈ 1
Yt/Et
γ χ (1− γ)(1 + χ)Yt
Et
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JUAN DE DIOS ROMERO PALOP, PEP RUIZ DE AGUIRRE, CAMILO A. ULLOA and HERIBERT VALERO LAPAZ:
Measuring retail trade using card transactional data.
1922 MARIO ALLOZA and CARLOS SANZ: Jobs multipliers: evidence from a large fi scal stimulus in Spain.
Unidad de Servicios AuxiliaresAlcalá, 48 - 28014 Madrid
E-mail: publicaciones@bde.eswww.bde.es
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