jacksonville 2015

Emerging Market Strategies

Game Theory

• Relation Based System• Rule Based System

Medici Jewish Diamond Merchants of New York

South East Asia Overseas Chinese

Game Theory Models

• Each System is mix of relation based and rule based system

• US one end of spectrum• Most Emerging Markets at other End• Direct correlation between level of legal risk

and level of relationship based system

Hallmarks Relationship System

• Family Businesses

Hallmarks Relationship System

• State Owned Companies

Market Concentration State & Family Owned Businesses

Hallmarks Relationship System

• Crony Capitalism and Corruption

Hallmarks Relationship System

•Underground Economies

Information

• Family Owned Corporations• State Owned Corporations• Connections• Underground Economies

China

• Misallocation of Capital• Debt• Booms

Followed by Long Busts

Local Government Debt

Roads to Nowhere and Empty Cities

Jiaozhou Bay Bridge

Ordos, Inner Mongolia

Chinese Real Estate

Bubble with Chinese Characteristics?

Downside

Decline has metastasize

Slowdown in Construction

Growth of Shadow Banking

Shadow Banking Growth

Limiting Shadow Banking Size

Extend and Pretend

Shadow Banking Money Substitute

Li Keqiang Index

This Morning’s Indicators

China Growth

China Taps International Markets

China Wins the Debt Race

Margin Debt

BRIC Dollar Debt

EM Dollar Debt

Hard Currency EM Corporate Debt

EM Maturities

EM Currency Decline

Emerging Market Slowdown

Theory and Practice

• Direct Investors– Market and Product define the strategy

• Indirect Investors– Booms and Busts – Momentum and foreign

investors• Analysis– Asymmetries of information

Japan Slows

Germany Slows

US Debt Market

US Debt Market

US Debt Market

US Debt

Growth through Stimulus?

• Tharman Shanmugaratnam, chairman of the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee, said: “We’re clearly in recovery, globally as well as in most parts of the world.”