iroquois gas transmission system, lp - platts · iroquois gas transmission system, lp ... iroquois...

Post on 06-Nov-2018

227 Views

Category:

Documents

0 Downloads

Preview:

Click to see full reader

TRANSCRIPT

Iroquois Gas Transmission System, LP

Offering Market Diversity & Increased

Value to PA Marcellus Suppliers

Platts 5th Annual Pipeline Development & Expansion Conference

Houston, TX

September 23, 2010

Scott E. Rupff

Vice President - Marketing, Development & Commercial Operations

Forward-Looking Statement Disclaimer

This publication may contain various forward-looking statements. Suchforward-looking statements are based on current expectations, are notguarantees of future performance and include assumptions about future marketconditions, operations and results. Iroquois can give no assurance that suchexpectations will be achieved. Among the many factors that could causeactual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statementsherein are: future demand and prices for natural gas; availability of supplies ofCanadian natural gas; regulatory, political, legislative and judicialdevelopments, particularly with regard to regulation by the Federal EnergyRegulatory Commission; the timing and cost of Iroquois’ expansion projects;competitive conditions in the marketplace; changes in the receptivity of thefinancial markets to Iroquois or other oil and gas credits similar to Iroquoisand, accordingly, our strategy for financing any such change in businessstrategy or expansions.

Discussion Points

Iroquois 101: Marketplace Overview & Changing Supply Dynamics

Marcellus’ 4th Wave: Destination Iroquois – A Better Alternative for Producers than a Converging M3/Z6 NY Marketplace

Iroquois’ WTC Project: A New Market Outlet for TGP Capacity Holders

Iroquois’ NYMarc Project: Connecting Millennium and TGP Supplies to Iroquois’ Market

Iroquois 101

Marketplace Overview & Changing Supply

Dynamics

Iroquois Gas Transmission System

Commenced operations in 1991

416-mile single line (30” and 24”) pipeline system running from the Canadian border at Waddington, NY to Long Island and New York City, NY

106,400 HP of compression (7 stations)

1.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of peak deliverability

Physical Receipt Interconnects with TransCanada PipeLines and Algonquin

MAOP = 1,440 psig

Mainline Interzone Rate = $0.37/Dt (Max. Fuel = 1%)

Eastchester Rate = $0.635/Dt (Max. Fuel = 4.5%)

Iroquois’ Ownership Structure

A Delaware Limited Partnership

TransCanada Pipelines Limited 44.48%

Dominion Resources, Inc. 24.72%

National Grid U.S. 20.40%

New Jersey Resources 5.53%

Energy East Corp. 4.87%

100.0%

Iroquois’ Connected Market – New York

Apr 09 – Mar 10 (MMcf/d) Local Distribution Companies Max. Day Avg. Day

– National Grid (Long Island & Upstate NY) 363 168– Con Edison(Bronx, NYC) 305 125– Central Hudson 58 15– St. Lawrence 2 3– NYSEG 2 1

730 312

Power Plants– Northport Power Station 87 95– New Athens Generating 103 114

190 209

Pipelines– Dominion 26 33– Tennessee (200 Line) 239 111

265 144

Total NY 1,185 665

Iroquois’ Connected Market – Connecticut

Apr 09 – Mar 10 (MMcf/d) Local Distribution Companies Max. Day Avg. Day

– Southern CT Gas 13 15– Yankee Gas 28 11

41 26 Power Plants

– Milford Power Station 81 71– Bridgeport Power Station 71 52

152 123 Pipelines

– Algonquin 35 39– Tennessee (300 Line) 103 34

138 73

Total CT 331 222

Total NY + CT 1,516 887

Iroquois Scheduled Receipts

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Jan-

08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-08

Sep-0

8

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Mar

-09

May

-09

Jul-09

Sep-0

9

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Mar

-10

May

-10

Date

Dt/

Day

Waddington

Wright

Brookfield

Total

Aug 09 – Jul 10 = 887 MDt/d

TCPL Contract Expiry Profile at Iroquois(TCPL Index of Shippers as of 9/1/10)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Year

Dt/

d

Dawn Empress

Firm Contracts To Waddington – 11/1/10

TCPL = 651 MDt/d

IGTS = 1,003 MDt/d

Marcellus’ 4th Wave:

Destination Iroquois – A Better Alternative for

Producers than a Converging M3/Z6 NY

Marketplace

The Infrastructure Build-Out for Marcellus

1st Wave: Backhauls/Greater Liquidity Plays– TGP Backhauls (contracted 2008 - 2010) = 350 MDt/d

– TGP Backhauls (contracted 2011 - 2012) = 586 MDt/d

– DTI Marcellus Northeast Project (Various) = 150 MDt/d

– Spectra TEAM Project (Range Resources) = 150 MDt/d

– TGP 300 Line Expansion (Equitable Resources) = 350 MDt/d

2nd Wave: Targeting NYC/NJ– TGP Northeast Upgrade Project (CHK/Statoil) = 636 MDt/d

– Spectra NJ/NY Project (CHK/Statoil/Con Edison) = 800 MDt/d

– Transco Northeast Supply Link (Suez/Various) = 420 MDt/d

3rd Wave: Supplying Canada– National Fuel Northern Access Expansion (Statoil) = 320 MDt/d

– National Fuel Tioga Expansion (East Resources) = 350 MDt/d

– TGP NSD Project (Anadarko, Seneca, Cabot) = 150 MDt/d

Marcellus Outlet Infrastructure = > 3.3 Bcf/d

Northeast Gas Demand Outlook (Source: PIRA)

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

BC

F/D

(C

han

ge)

12 vs. 08 -0.01 0.01 -0.25 -0.06 -0.32

15 vs. 12 0.16 0.13 0.68 0.04 1.02

20 vs. 15 0.26 0.39 -0.14 0.08 0.58

Residential Commercial Electric Industrial Total

Northeast includes: Mid-Atlantic & New England

20 vs. 08 = 1.3 BCF/D

Canadian Gas Demand Outlook, Up 3.4%/Year(Source: Ziff Energy Group)

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Bcf/dAlberta 41% Market Share

Tcf/yr

Growing 4.0%/Yr

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Bcf/dQuebec 6% Tcf/yr

Down 0.3%/Yr

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Bcf/dSaskatchewan 7%

Tcf/yr

Growing 3.4%/Yr

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Bcf/dManitoba 2%

Tcf/yr

Growing 1.4%/Yr

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Bcf/dOntario 34%

Tcf/yr

Residential

Commercial

Electrical

Oil Sands

Residential

Commercial

Electrical

Industrial

Maritimes 1%

0.0

0.5

1.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Bcf/d

0.0

0.2

0.4

Tcf/yr

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Bcf/dBritish Columbia 9%

Tcf/yr

Growing 1.0%/Yr

TCPL/Iroquois Interconnect @ Waddington

Projected Annual LNG Imports (Source: Wood Mackenzie)

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

Mm

cfd

Lake Charles Everett Cove Elba

Freeport Golden Pass Sabine Cheniere Gulf (Pascagoula)

Cameron Baja Canaport Energy Bridge

Altamira Manzanillo New England Gateway Neptune

Northeast LNG Facilities

Northeast Gas Supply Key Points

Marcellus, Rockies & LNG displacing Canadian and

Gulf supplies

– Marcellus: 4-7 Bcf/d by 2017

– REX: 1-2 Bcf/d available

– Canadian imports losing market share

LNG remains a big wildcard – Will Northeast

terminals be an attractive destination?

– NBP vs. Henry Hub

– Continued strength in Asian and European demand

Too Bearish?

Marcellus Production Forecast (Source: Wood Mackenzie – 4/10)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

Bcf

/d

Projected 2015 = 3.2 Bcf/d

Projected 2020 = 6.2 Bcf/d

Need for 4th Wave of Infrastructure to

Market?

Market Opportunities: Ontario, New England,

and the NYF System “Back Door” –

Long Island, Astoria/Queens, Bronx/NYC

Too Bearish on Production?

Northeast Market Basis Forecast(Source: Wood Mackenzie)

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2009$/m

mbtu

Transco Z6 NY TX Eastern M-3 Algonquin Tenn. Z6

Forecasted Convergence of Z6NY & M3

East of the Hudson River –Are the Forward Curves Under-Valuing the Proposition?

Iroquois Zone 2/Columbia Gas Appalachia Spread

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

No

v-0

7

Jan

-08

Mar-

08

May

-08

Jul-

08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8

Jan

-09

Mar-

09

May

-09

Jul-

09

Sep

-09

No

v-0

9

Jan

-10

Mar-

10

May

-10

Jul-

10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0

Jan

-11

Mar-

11

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1

Jan

-12

Mar-

12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Mar-

13

May

-13

Jul-

13

Sep

-13

Date

$/D

t

Historical/GD Midpoint Projected/Platts M2M Forward Curve

36-Month Avg = $0.58

Col. Gas Appal. Basis = $0.08

34-Month Avg = $0.89

Col. Gas Appal. Basis = $0.24

Iroquois’ WTC Project

A New Market Outlet for TGP Capacity Holders

Iroquois’ WTC Project

WTC Project

In-Service = 8/1/12

CAPEX = $55 MM

MDQ = 375,000 Dt

Facilities = 15,400 Hp

Rate = $0.07/Dt

Fuel = 0.5%

Wright Transfer Compressor Configuration

TGP 200 Line

ZONE 1

ZONE 2

WRIGHT SMS

WRIGHT “B” SMS

Proposed

Wright

Transfer

Compressor

Existing

Wright

Mainline

Compressors

WTC Project

Current interconnect is delivery only– Transfer gas from TGP (500 psig) to IGTS (1200 psig)

– 15,400 HP, Two Solar T-60 turbines

– Length of lateral line to be determined

– Adjacent to existing compressor site

Open Season: August 30 – October 15, 2010

Utilize traditional FERC 7c filing process

Establish new Lateral Only rate schedule

FERC Certificate Filing: Q1 2011

Construction: Fall 2011

In-service: Summer 2012

Iroquois’ NYMarc ProjectConnecting Millennium & TGP Supplies

to Iroquois’ Market

Iroquois’ NYMarc Project

NYMarc Project

In-Service = 11/1/15

CAPEX = $475 MM

MDQ = 700,000 Dt

Facilities = 66 miles 36” pipe & Compression

15-Year Rate = $0.40/Dt

Fuel = 0.5%

Iroquois’ NYMarc Project

Template Source: Ray Sterner, John Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory

NYMarc Project Facts

In-Service Date: 11/1/2015

CAPEX: $450-500 MM

Initial Capacity: 500 MDt/d (expandable to 2 Bcf/d)

15-year Fixed Rates: $0.40/Dt

– Fuel < 0.5%

– Tertiary access to forward haul Mainline Delivery Points

Discounted firm Mainline backhaul rates

– To TGP 200 Line/Wright: $0.10/Dt

– To TCPL/Waddington: $0.15/Dt

Ability to expand Mainline into New York Facilities

System

– Long Island, Astoria/Queens, Bronx

$-

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.45

$0.50

500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000

Quantity (MDt/d)

Ra

te (

$/D

t)

Recourse Rate 15-Year Fixed Rate

Fuel < 0.5%

NYMarc Economic Expandability

Potential Incremental Loads – IGTS Mainline

Upstream of Pleasant Valley

– New England markets via TGP 200 Line (Wright)

– Upstate NY markets via DTI (Canajoharie)

– Eastern Canadian markets via TCPL (Waddington)

Downstream of Pleasant Valley

– Advance Power - Dover, NY (1000 MW)

– Northport Re-powering Project (1582 MW)

– Astoria Energy Phase II (740 MW)

– ConEdison LDC @ Hunts Point

– National Grid-LI LDC @ South Commack

– Connecticut LDCs

Working with Iroquois/The Benefits

Access to premium basis markets

Access to under-supplied firm transportation capacity holders (LDCs)

Access to high load-factor merchant generating facilities

Access to the “back door” of the New York Facilities System

– National Grid/LIPA on Long Island (South Commack)

– Con Edison/NYPA in the Bronx (Hunts Point)

Competitively priced backhauls to Eastern Canadian markets (TCPL/Waddington)

– Ontario power generation

– GMi and Consumers Gas

Iroquois Contacts

Name Title Phone Email

Scott Rupff Vice President -

Marketing, Development &

Commercial Operations

203-925-7291 scott_rupff@iroquois.com

Todd White Director -

Market Development & Customer

Service

203-925-7284 todd_white@iroquois.com

Rob Perless Project Development Manager 203-944-7016 robert_perless@iroquois.com

Bill Hansen Market Development Manager 203-925-7256 bill_hansen@iroquois.com

Maria Nemchek Capacity Marketing Manager 203-944-7004 maria_nemchek@iroquois.com

Lisa Krohne Manager -

Transportation Services

203-925-7283 lisa_krohne@iroquois.com

Gina Ferreri Contracting & Credit Services

Representative

203-925-7229 gina_ferreri@iroquois.com

top related