introduction to africa wolfram latsch henry m. jackson school of international studies university of...

Introduction Introduction toto Africa Africa

Wolfram LatschWolfram LatschHenry M. Jackson School of International Studies

University of Washington

EARC Workshop | China-Africa Relations | 14 May 2011

Where is Africa?

Africa Precolonial Polities

Africa Africa Precolonial Polities Precolonial Polities c.1880c.1880

Africa Partition at Berlin 1885

Africa After Independence 1958-91

Africa’s Performance since Independence

Snapshot: Development Disparities

Africa after Independence: Three Different Periods of Economic Growth

Africa after Independence: Three Different Periods of Economic Growth

Africa after Independence: Three Different Periods of Economic Growth

Africa’s Africa’s Four Anti-Growth SyndromesFour Anti-Growth Syndromes

1.1. Aggressive control and regulatory Aggressive control and regulatory policies distort the economy and policies distort the economy and create poor environment for create poor environment for markets and business markets and business

(exchange rates, inflation, tariffs, (exchange rates, inflation, tariffs, corruption)corruption)

World Bank. Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa. 2008.

Africa’s Africa’s Anti-Growth SyndromesAnti-Growth Syndromes

2. 2. Ethnic and regional redistribution Ethnic and regional redistribution polarizes politics and economics, polarizes politics and economics, raises the stakes of politics, raises the stakes of politics, increases the likelihood that increases the likelihood that groups will fight for control of the groups will fight for control of the state.state.

World Bank Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa. 2008.

Africa’s Africa’s Anti-Growth SyndromesAnti-Growth Syndromes

3. Sacrificing the income of future generations by unsustainable borrowing and spending(trade deficits, debt)

World Bank Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa. 2008.

Africa’s Africa’s Anti-Growth SyndromesAnti-Growth Syndromes

4.4. State and government fragility and State and government fragility and breakdown during conflict breakdown during conflict

(breakdown in the delivery of public (breakdown in the delivery of public goods like law + order, defense, goods like law + order, defense, infrastructure etc.)infrastructure etc.)

World Bank Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa. 2008.

Polity IV. Global Report 2009.

Polity IV. Global Report 2009.

Steven Radelet. Emerging Africa. 2010.

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Cape Verde

Ethiopia

Ghana

Lesotho

Mali

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Rwanda

Sao Tome & Principe

Seychelles

South Africa

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Cape Verde

Ethiopia

Ghana

Lesotho

Mali

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Rwanda

Sao Tome & Principe

Seychelles

South Africa

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia

Steven Radelet. Emerging Africa. 2010.

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Cape Verde

Ethiopia

Ghana

Lesotho

Mali

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Rwanda

Sao Tome & Principe

Seychelles

South Africa

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia

Botswana

Burkina Faso

Cape Verde

Ethiopia

Ghana

Lesotho

Mali

Mauritius

Mozambique

Namibia

Rwanda

Sao Tome & Principe

Seychelles

South Africa

Tanzania

Uganda

Zambia

1996-20081996-2008

Average Income Growth per capita

3.2%3.2%

Cumulative Increase in Average Real Income

50%50%

Emerging Africa:Emerging Africa:Five Fundamental ChangesFive Fundamental Changes

1. Rise of more democratic and accountable governments | 3 in 1989 → 23 in 2008

2. More sensible and sustainable economic policies | reduction in anti-growth syndromes

3. End of the debt crisis after ~ 25 years | greater country ownership of reforms

4. New technologies | cell phones in markets and politics

5. New generations | policymakers, activists, business leaders

Steven Radelet. Emerging Africa. 2010.

Emerging Africa:Emerging Africa:Other ChangesOther Changes

1. Agricultural production is rising

2. Investment is increasing

3. Productivity and income are growing

4. Africa is more connected to international trade

5. Growth not based on commodity prices alone

6. Infant mortality is declining

7. Population growth rates have begun to decline

8. Political rights and liberties more respected

9. Reduction in political conflict

Challenges and Opportunities

Diffusion of ICT

The Economist. 6 January 2011.

The New York Times. 3 May 2011.

Foreign Policy July/August 2010

The Economist. 17 March 2011.

= Sub-Saharan African country

Polity IV. Global Report 2009.

Economist Intelligence Unit. Manning the Barricades. March 2009.

20092009

World Bank. Doing Business. rru.worldbank.org/businessplanet

Ease of Doing Business | 2009Ease of Doing Business | 2009

World Economic Forum. Global Competitiveness Report. 2010.

Competitiveness | 2009

The Economist. 29 January 2009.

Gapminder World

200 Years That Changed the World

http://bit.ly/evil5O

China and AfricaChina and Africa

The Economist. 20 April 2011.

Asia-Pacific Journal. 2009.