international energy agency agence internationale de lenergie energy technology policy progress and...
Post on 27-Mar-2015
216 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Energy Technology Policy Progress and Way Forward
Fridtjof UnanderEnergy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency
ECCP II ConferenceBrussels
24 October 2005
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Presentation Overview
A look back on past trendsLooking ahead; scenarios to 2030 and
2050Technology policy messagesFuture work: G8 Plan of Action
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Looking backLooking back
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Energy Demand and Savings since 1973 Energy Demand and Savings since 1973 IEA -11IEA -11
Without energy savings achieved since 1973 energy demand in 1998 would have been 50% higher
Actual energy use
Additional energy use without
savings
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997
ex
ajo
ule
s
50%
OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES
Oil Crises &Climate
Challenges
Hypothetical energy use, without savings
IEA-11 Energy Use IEA-11 Energy Use Impact of Energy Savings Impact of Energy Savings
OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES
Oil Crises &Climate
Challenges
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
1973-1990 1990-1998
Ave
rag
e A
nn
ual
% G
row
th
Hypothetical Energy Use Hypothetical Energy Use without Energy Savingswithout Energy Savings
IEA-11 Energy Use IEA-11 Energy Use Impact of Energy Savings Impact of Energy Savings
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
1973-1990 1990-1998
Ave
rag
e A
nn
ual
% G
row
th
Energy Energy SavingsSavings
Actual Actual Energy UseEnergy Use
Hypothetical Energy Use Hypothetical Energy Use without Energy Savingswithout Energy Savings
Rates of energy savings have slowed significantly after 1990, leading to rapid demand growth
OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES
Oil Crises &Climate
Challenges
IEA COIEA CO22 Emissions 1973 - 2001 Emissions 1973 - 2001
Recent trends show steady increase
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
CO
2 E
mis
sio
ns
in
19
90
= 1
00
%
0.1%/year
1.1%/year
OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES
Oil Crises &Climate
Challenges
IEA COIEA CO22 Emissions per GDP Emissions per GDP 1973 - 20011973 - 2001
Rate of decline has slowed since 1990
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
CO
2/G
DP
(k
g C
O2
/US
D)
-2.6 %/year
-1.2 %/year
OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES
Oil Crises &Climate
Challenges
IEA-11 COIEA-11 CO22 Emissions Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy SavingsImpact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings
OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES
Oil Crises &Climate
Challenges
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
1973-1990 1990-1998
Ave
rag
e A
nn
ual
% G
row
th
Hypothetical CO2 Emissions@ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency
IEA-11 COIEA-11 CO22 Emissions Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy SavingsImpact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings
OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES
Oil Crises &Climate
Challenges
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
1973-1990 1990-1998
Ave
rag
e A
nn
ual
% G
row
th
Less carbon Less carbon in fuel mixin fuel mix
Hypothetical CO2 Emissions@ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency
IEA-11 COIEA-11 CO22 Emissions Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy SavingsImpact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings
Slowing energy savings rates primary reason for accelerated growth in emissions after 1990
OF ENERGY USEIN IEA COUNTRIES
Oil Crises &Climate
Challenges
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
1973-1990 1990-1998
Ave
rag
e A
nn
ual
% G
row
th
Less carbon Less carbon in fuel mixin fuel mix
Energy Energy SavingsSavings
ActualActualEmissionsEmissions
Hypothetical CO2 Emissions@ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Looking aheadLooking ahead
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Rapid Growth in CO2 Emissions Expected Ahead
CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s
0
4 000
8 000
12 000
16 000
20 000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt
of C
O2
OECD Transition economies Developing countries
Source: WEO 2004
Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios
CO2 emissions are 16% less in the Alternative scenario in 2030,
a reduction of about 6 Gt of CO2
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt o
f CO
2
Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mt o
f CO
2
Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario
Source: WEO 2004
Contributory Factors in CO2 Emission Reduction, 2002-2030
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use
for 20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
49%
10%
8%
12%
21%
OECD
63%
1%
21%
15%
Transition economies
67%
7%
17%
4%5%
Developing countries
58%
World
End-use efficiency gains
7%
Fuel switching in end uses
5%
Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation
10%
Increased nuclear in power generation
20%
Increased renewables in power generation
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
But this is not enough…But this is not enough…
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
[Gt C
O2/
yr]
50$/t CO2 w ith CCS
50$/t CO2 w ithout CCS
Example of IEA Technology Analysis : Role of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)
$50/tCO2: 2050 emissions would be 25%
higher in absence of CCS
+ 25%PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Long-term Technology OpportunitiesLong-term Technology Opportunities
No silver bullet, but some features are clear: Accelerating energy efficiency improvements can
make a difference in the short and long term CCS is a crucial technology in the medium term Renewables can steadily make an increasing impact
and is key for the long-term sustainability
Need to pursue a “portfolio” approach in developing policies for technology deployment and R&D
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Future workFuture work
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA Analysis of Long-term Technology IEA Analysis of Long-term Technology Opportunities planned for 2006Opportunities planned for 2006
Update of IEA World Energy Outlook Alternative Policy Scenario including analysis of new energy technologies that are expected to emerge from 2030 to 2050
New IEA publication “Global Energy Technology Perspectives” will address in detail how technologies may impact long-term energy markets (2050)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
IEA Roles in the G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action
Dialogue partner Advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies Transform the way we use energy
Energy indicators Buildings Appliances Surface transport Industry
Powering a clean energy future Cleaner fossil fuels Carbon capture and storage Develop renewable energy IEA Implementing Agreements Electricity grids
Promoting Networks for Research and Development Enhance the Implementing Agreements and reinforce links with
developing countries and industry
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Working with Others
The IEA technology networkNational governments
Major developing countries
Industry
Other international organisations
Existing international initiatives
top related