instituto nacional de pesquisas espaciais - inpe ...pablo reynes josé pesquero besm science team...
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Paulo Nobre, I. F. A. Cavalcanti, A. P. Aguiar, S. C. Chou, V. B. Capistrano, P. Kubota, M. Baptista Jr., E. Giarolla, M. Bottino, D. S. Moreira, S. Nilo, D. Alvin, J. Pendharkar, J. P. Bonatti, A. Silva, E. Ramirez, T.
Tarasova, F. Pesquero, M. H. Costa, G. Sampaio, M. Cardoso, C. Augusto Jr, H. C. Soares, F. Casagrande, F. Odorizi, A. A. de Castro, A. D. Nobre, A. Cuartas, A. Lanfer, C. A. Nobre
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais - INPE
Conferência INCT-MC, FAPESP, 30 de Setembro de 2016
The Challenge:• To build an Earth System Model in Brazil, from state of
the art component models in the nation and abroad:
1. To incorporate expert knowledge (e.g. the LBA program) about ocean-ice-atmosphere-biosphere interactions of relevance to Brazil;
2. To provide the scientific foundations of global climate change scenarios for mitigation and adaptation policies to climate change in Brazil;
3. To contribute to form a new generation of modeling-capable earth system scientists in the nation.
Our Goal for INCT-MC Earth System Modeling Project
BESM-LuccME-EtaClimate Forecast System
MOM5
OGCM
IC
Coupled Forecast
GFDL’S
FMScoupler
GFDL’s
MOM5OGCM
CPTEC’s
AGCMF90 mpi
GFDL’s
SISMarine Ice
CCST’s
INLANDSfc Model
TOPAZbiogeochemistryCO2
N, P, K
SST
U, VIce &
Albedo
Sfc Fluxes
Prec
Temp,
Winds
HeatF
P-E
Winds
HeatF
Lprec, Snow,
SolarRad, T, U, V
Prec,
Temp,
HeatFSST
Albedo
Chemistry
Aerosol
THMB
Hydrology
AGRO
Agriculture
FIRE
Forest Fire
Initialization
Winds
Solar
NCEP’S
Analises
CPTEC’s
AGCMF90 mpi
T, S
MOM5
OGCM
Atmos
Obs
Coupled
Initialization
hourly
Coupled
Timestep
Eta
Regional
Atmos
Regional Products
LuccME
Land Use
LuccME Schematic
INLAND Schematic
BESM
LuccME
Eta
LuccME-INLAND Results
LuccME ScenarioINLAND Simulation 2005-2050Land Use off, Fire off Land Use on, Fire on
RIVER ICE
BioChemistry Predictability
Fire
Hydrology Land Use
RIVERS
H2O
Heat
CO2
Trace Gases
Particles
2080-2099 A1B 2080-2099 A1B
LAND (INLAND – INPE/CCST)
ATMOSPHERE (INPE/CPTEC)
OCEAN (MOM5 – NOAA/GFDL)
ATMOS Chem-Aerosol (MOZART-MAM/NCAR)
FMS COUPLER
CO2
Co
urt
esy: P
au
lo N
ob
re
BESM Component Models
BESM DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
(i) full use of CPTEC’s experience and sub-models
(ii) collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad
– Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model as the structuring building-block
– Use GFDL/FMS coupler to add components: • Dynamic vegetation with carbon cycle;
• Continental hydrology-ocean coupling;
• Ocean carbon cycle;
• Sea ice;
• Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols.
One-Model: From extreme weather to Global Climate Change Scenarios
Extreme Events Hit Brazil
T666L96
T213L64
T126L42
T062L28
Surface Temperature Trend in Brazil
BESM2.5 CMIP5 Runs 1850-2100Air Temperature at 2m
Courtesy: V. Capistrano, INPE/BESM
RCP8.5
RCP4.5
HISTORICAL
Atlantic Meridional Mode
SST, Taux, Tauy Joint EOF1
BESM2.5 historical run (11.4%)ERSSTv4 (9.3%)
Courtesy: S. Veiga, INPE/PGMET
BESM Historical Run
BESM RCP Runs
RCP8.5 RCP4.5
BESM SCENARIOS via ESGF
BESM CMIP5 Scenarios on theEarth System Grid Federation - ESGF
Brazil
Courtesy: W. Mendes, INPE/BESM
BESM-OA2.5 Global Average SST
300 year run
Abrupt4xCO2 - piControl
INPE/BESM 2.5 NCAR/CCSM 4
GFDL/CM 2.1 MOHC/HadGEM2-ES
Sou
rce:
Cap
istr
ano
et
al (
20
15
) in
pre
par
atio
n
BESM abrupt4xCO4 Temperature
BESM abrupt4xCO4 Precipitation
ERA interim REANALISYS BESM 2.3 BESM 2.3.1
BESM UPPER LEVEL FLOW
Cloud Cover Parameterization in BESM & Amazon Rainfall-Circulation
GPCP BESM 2.3 BESM 2.3.1
Bottino and Nobre (2015), Submitted to Climate Dynamics
BESM Atlantic ITCZ simulations
ERAI
NCCS (bias = -1.72; rmse = 2.95)
CTRL (bias = -4.38; rmse = 5.11)
V at 10 m (m/s): 5N 30W +/- 2
ITCZ Meridional Migration
Bottino and Nobre (2015), Submitted to Climate Dynamics
Super Typhoon Haiyan 2014
24 h FCST CPTEC-AGCM (T666L64)
CPTEC T666L64 24h FCST TRMM RAINFALL OBS
Courtesy: Silvio N. Figueroa, INPE/CPTEC
MOM5
CPTEC AGCM4.1
T10m, v10m q10m
SST & albedo
BESM2.6
FMS
SST Control
Rainfall Control
BESM2.7 (2016-17) – under construction
VEGETATION: IBIS <INLAND>
HIDROLOGY: THMB <HAND>
MOM5: KPP <GISSVM>
MOM5: TOPAZ, SIS
SPECTRAL DYNAMICS: Semi_Lagrangian (<=25km) Eulerian (>25km)
S-L RADIATION: RRTMG
Cloud MICROPHYSICS: Ferreir-1MDeep CONVECTION Grell
CHEMIMSTRY: <MOZART> AEROSSOLS: <MAM>
PBL: dry MY2.0; moist Park
ATMOSPHERE
LAND OCEAN
FMS COUPLER
International Cooperation
BESMINPE, UFV, USP, UFSM
NASA/GISSUSA
IAPChina
CSIRSouth Africa
NOAA/GFDLUSA
IITMIndia
WHRCUSA
IISCIndia
NCARUSA
FUNDING AGENCIES
BESM
MCTIC/CNPq/Rede CLIMA
MCTIC/PNUD
MCTIC/INPE
MCTIC/FINEP
MCTIC/CNPq/INCT-MC
CAPES/ANA
MCTIC/CNPq/IBAS
FAPESP/PFPMCG
BESM PRODUCTS
ENSO FCST
M.Sc.Thesis
CMIP6 Scenarios
CMIP5 Scenarios
Seasonal Climate FCSTs
Ph. D. Dissertations
Dynamical Extended FCST
ESM capabilities for
Universities
BESM
Concluding Remarks
• BESM-OA fully coupled global model has been completed, allowing Brazil to inaugurate its participation in the CMIP5 global climate change model intercomparison project.
• Next steps: Developing BESM into a Full ESM, with dynamical vegetation, continental hydrology and atmospheric chemistry-aerosol, toward CMIP6.
Atmosphere Ocean Surface
Aerosols & Chemistry
Silvio N. FigueroaJosé P. BonattiPaulo KubotaEnver RamirezPablo ReynesJosé Pesquero
BESM Science Team
Débora AlvimJayant Pendharkar
Paulo NobreEmanuel Giarolla
Andre LanferHelena Soares
Raquel L. MelloVinícius B. Capistrano
Gilvan SampaioManoel CardosoMarcos SanchesAdriana LuzAntono. D. NobreCarlos Guimarães Jr.Marcos Costa (UFV)
ProjectManagement
Paulo Nobre (PI)Manuel BaptistaBianca AntunesFelipe Odorizi
Graduate Students
Mabel C. CostaSandro Veiga
Fernanda CasagrandeWendel Max
Foto
: co
rtes
ia d
e A
nto
nio
No
bre Thank you!
Muito Obrigado!
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