initial data and results marcus stromeyer. first test - germany why germany? two major parties...

Initial Data and Results Marcus Stromeyer

First Test - Germany

• Why Germany? • Two Major Parties• Election Timing• Data Availability• Consistent Elections • Accountable Head of State

• Assumptions• CDU/CSU• Third Parties Insignificant

Data Analysis - Germany

• Results• No ROBUST correlation

• Possible Causes• German worries about inflation• Lack of enough data

• Next Step• Where is quarterly GDP growth important?

Data Analysis – Spain

• Result • Still no ROBUST correlation

• Possible Causes• Data very limited• Importance of Economic Vote• Political Scandals

Take Aways

• The theory

• The literature

• The data

Works Cited

• Hibbs, Douglas. "The 2012 US Presidential Election: Implications of the Bread and Peace Model." Douglas-hibbs.com. 28 May 2011. Web. 10 Oct. 2011. <http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/Election2012/2012Election-MainPage.htm>.

• Resources, Election. "Election Resources on the Internet: Elections to the Spanish Congress of Deputies." Election Resources on the Internet / Recursos Electorales En La Internet. 27 Sept. 2011. Web. 10 Oct. 2011. <http://electionresources.org/es/index_en.html>.

• OECD. "Quarterly National Accounts : Quarterly Growth Rates of Real GDP, Change over Previous Quarter." OECD StatExtracts. Web. 10 Oct. 2011. <Quarterly National Accounts : Quarterly Growth Rates of real GDP, change over previous quarter>.

Works Cited 2

• Political Business Cycles and Endogenous Elections Jac C. Heckelman and Hakan Berument Southern Economic Journal Vol. 64, No. 4 (Apr., 1998), pp. 987-1000 Published by: Southern Economic Association Article Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1061215

• Alan I. Abramowitz Online Publication date: 2008 Volume: 41 Start page:691 Publication: PS: Political Science & Politics DOI: 10.1017/S1049096508081249 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S1049096508081249

• Economics and elections in Western Europe: 1960–1997 Henry W. Chappell, Jr, Linda Gonçalves Veiga  Economics and elections in Western Europe: 1960–1997, Electoral Studies, Volume 19, Issues 2-3, June 2000, Pages 183-197, ISSN 0261-3794, 10.1016/ S0261-3794(99)00047-5. (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379499000475)

• Econometrics and Presidential Elections Ray C. Fair The Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol. 10, No. 3 (Summer, 1996), pp. 89-102 Published by: American Economic Association Article Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2138521

• Of Time and Presidential Election Forecasts Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien PS: Political Science and Politics Vol. 29, No. 1 (Mar., 1996), pp. 37-39 Published by: American Political Science Association Article Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/420189