inflation of expectations

Inflation of ExpectationsA new approach to change management

Ali Anani

A B

One route from A to B

A

B

A 2nd route from A to B

A

B

A 2nd route from A to B

Tarzan jump is invariably unlikely

A

B

A 2nd route from A to B

A will go downhill to C before eventually moving up to B

C

A

B

A 2nd route from A to B

A will go downhill to C before eventually moving up to B

C

The journey from A to C and then C to B is full with emotional changes

The Emotional Journey of Change

Shock

Denial

Anger

Guilt

Depression

Excitement

Hope

Understanding

Acceptance

EmotionsEmotions

The Emotional Journey of Change

Shock

Denial

Anger

Guilt

Depression

Excitement

Hope

Understanding

Acceptance

EmotionsEmotions

Inspect the trough of the curve. What do you notice?

You notice that a very strong negative emotion (depression) is adjacent to a mild positive emotion (understanding on a trough

This proximity leads to high unpredictability for any change in one emotion will affect the other in a highly complex way. This leads to chaos.

Depression Understanding

Change is linked to

expectations

This inspires the borrowing an idea from

long-run Phillips Curve

http://tutor2u.net/economics/presentations/a2economics/macro/PhillipsCurveNAIRU/default.html

Without getting into details, when opposites are adjacent to each other a stabilizing line will encounter chaos

NegativePositive

Stabilizing Line

Sensitive to minor changes

The fixed line is extensible to many systems that are affected by expectation. This line is NOT limited to the Phillips Curve only

NegativePositive

Stabilizing LineNegative

feedback loop

Positive feedback loop

Negative expectation

Positive expectation

Negative attitude to Change

Positive attitude to Change

Changes are linked to expectations. This is same as expectations of inflation

InflationUnemployment

Highest -ve Lowest

+ve

Expectation Curve

http://doug-johnson.squarespace.com/blue-skunk-blog/2008/4/26/disillusionment-curve.html

The theory is pretty simple: the higher your expectations of a thing, the deeper your dissatisfaction/disillusionment when experiencing the thing itself

A story to illustrate this point further

I accepted under pressure a part-time job as a lecturer in a private university ¨ I gave the first open book exam. I still remember how students reacted in disbelief of the new reality that they could harmlessly open a book during an exam ¨ All students, except for two, finished the two-hour exam in one hour ¨ The two remaining students complained that time was not enough

The students reported to other teaching staff how they had two hours to solve such an easy exam and were allowed to open books on top of that ¨ The staff accused me of giving an easy exam so that students would enroll in my class ¨ I corrected the exam and the class average was 16 out of 30 ¨ The staff who complained about me alluring the students to enroll in my classes had a different view (guess it)

This time they warned me of the forthcoming trouble that students had high expectation and that they pay high fees and therefore would revolt against me ¨ I challenged them if one student would complain. The trick was to manage the students’ expectations ¨ As I went in the class I asked each student to estimate his mark. The class average was 23 out 30

I went on to tell the students that I was going to solve the exam first ¨ The realization of the students that the exam was within their domain and that they did not give enough serious thinking to the exam grew as I went on solving it ¨ Having finished solving the exam, I asked to students to reevaluate their possible grades ¨ The average dropped to 12 out of 30

I distributed the exam papers and not a single complaint was made ¨ The students expected an average of 12 and they got 16. That exceeded their expectations. Had I distributed the papers when their average expectation was 23 I would have run into trouble

The dissatisfaction/disillusionment curve explains my story very well

http://www.siia.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1003:vision-from-the-top-2012-david-lloyd-intelliresponse&catid=161:software-articles&Itemid=1073

My students example falls into this shapeLow expectation, that raised the bar to the top of the curve

Exam trigger

End of exam

Declining expectations post exam

Waked up to the tricks of exams

Improved results in subsequent exams

Chaos

Today’s expectation

s

Tomorrow’s expectations

Stabilizing LineOf expectations

Sensitive to minor changes

Greed escalates. Taming the expectations of students tamed also their greed for even higher grades in future exams.

Tomorrow’s expectations are based on today's resultsLower the results of today so that you may tame the results of tomorrow

We need to add the stability line

This way we may manage change leaning upon the

experiences we gained from trying to

manage/mismanage inflation