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Indaba Agricultural Policy Research Institute
INDABA AGRICULTURAL POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Presented by Antony Chapoto, PhD
At
Reconciling agricultural growth with the
reduction of poverty
Policy dialogue on “Food Security & Nutrition in Zambia:
Issues, Gaps and Opportunities”Raddison Blu Hotel, Lusaka
August 14, 2014
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Why this presentation
Highlight Zambia’s economic achievements and potential
Identify the opportunities arising from rising population (food demand) rapid urbanization rising urban incomes diverse and changing consumption patterns
Data on Zambia’s smallholder sector Potential value chains Conclusion
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Zambia’s Economic AchievementsZambia’s Economic Achievements
Zambia Classified as low-middle
income by World Bank GDP growing at 6% per annum Agricultural growth rate at 7%
- above 6% CAADP Goal Three consecutive maize
bumper harvest years
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BUT Persistently high rural poverty: ≈80%
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Behind this backdrop Behind this backdrop
Zambia is characterized by Rapid population growth – 13 million High poverty rates ~ 80% of rural people poor High food and income inequality in urban areas High malnutrition rates of children under 5 years Rapid urbanization and increasing demand for
food Stagnant agricultural production
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Under exploited potentialUnder exploited potential
Zambia is in a unique position Abundance of fertile land Water Generally, favorable climate for agricultural
production Growing population, rapid urbanization and rising
incomes creating more opportunities for smallholder farmers
Can easily become a ‘Breadbasket’ for Southern Africa
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Rainfed AgricultureRainfed Agriculture
Zambian smallholders highly vulnerable to weather shocks
Ability to respond has improved Irrigation, winter maize Ag. policies stagnant
% of maize area planted to be harvested
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Poverty in ZambiaPoverty in Zambia
• Urban pop growing but rural population still high 64%
• Rural poverty rates stubbornly high
• Urban poverty declining • rising income• rising demand for a
variety of ag processed commodities
Source: GRZ’s Central Statistical Office and RALS 2012
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Under nutrition a national problemUnder nutrition a national problem
53% of under 5 children exhibit signs of growth stunting in Zambia
Incidences of stunting are higher in rural Zambia than in urban: 56.6 % compared to 47.8% in urban.
Eastern and Northern Provinces have the highest number of children who are stunted provinces with the highest high levels of poverty and
relatively higher population densities
Source: LCMS 2006
Under 5 children exhibiting signs of growth stunting
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Population growth and urbanization
Rising population and rapid urbanization Urban consumers income is growing but high
inequality Changing consumption patterns Diverse market opportunities
Are Zambia’s agricultural policies amenable to these opportunities?
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Urban Food Budget Shares For Key Products, 2007
Food Item ----------% expenditure share ----------
Lusaka Kitwe Mansa Kasama
Cereals & Staples 24.1 27.4 28.0 27.2
Dairy items 5.2 3.6 1.7 2.0
Meat & eggs 16.8 15.6 12.7 14.5
Fish 7.6 8.4 12.4 12.5
Vegetables 13.7 15.0 11.4 14.2
Fruits 3.6 4 3.7 4.0
Other Foods 16.4 17.1 16.9 18.4
Tobacco & alcohol 5.3 4.6 6.3 4.0
Food away from home
7.3 4.3 6.9 3.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Combined importance of meat, eggs, fish & dairy has surpassed the role of cereals/staples.
For poorest, cereals still dominate
Vegetables also important group, especially for poorest
Poultry & eggs have become very important & dominate the meats group outside Lusaka
Potential market: Potential market: Urban Food Consumption PatternsUrban Food Consumption Patterns
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Share of different staples within total expenditureon staples by urban centre
Staple
---% Percent share by urban centre---
Lusaka Kitwe Mansa Kasama
Maize 39.8 45.3 43.6 45.4
Wheat 40.7 36.1 17.9 17.6
Rice 8.7 8.8 8.2 12.1
Cassava 0.8 1.8 20.4 13.6
Other staples 10.0 8.0 10.0 11.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
• maize still dominates for lower income consumers, but wheat has become very important for all urban consumers.
• In Lusaka, wheat products dominate among staples except for the lowest expenditure groups
• Cassava important in Mansa & Kasama, esp. among low expenditure quintile of consumers
Potential market: Potential market: Urban Food Consumption PatternsUrban Food Consumption Patterns
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Wheat Product Consumption Trends - Zambia
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Urban Food Budget Shares Staples
Food Items
--------------------------% Expenditure Share -----------------------
Lusaka Kitwe Mansa Kasama
low med high low med high low med high low med high
Staples 28.4 24.2 18.7 31.8 26.6 22 32.1 27.2 23 32.3 26.2 23.2
Maize 14.6 8.5 4.6 17.5 11.3 6.2 14.9 12.4 8.3 16.0 12.3 8.8
Rice 1.9 2.4 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.5 1.9 2.6 2.4 3.5 3.3 2.9
Wheat 9.2 10.7 9.6 9.1 10.0 10.8 2.0 5.6 8.4 1.7 4.7 7.9
Cassava .2 .2 .2 .6 .6 .3 9.9 4.0 1.9 7.4 2.8 1.1
Other staples 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.2 3.4 2.6 2.0 3.7 3.1 2.5
Meat and Eggs 14.1 18.0 18.6 11.9 17.0 19.2 7.9 15.0 16.5 10.2 14.7 18.6
Vegetables 17.6 12.9 9.8 18.6 14.4 10.5 13.1 11.2 9.5 17.2 14.1 11.4
All other expenditure 39.9 44.9 52.9 37.7 42.0 48.3 46.9 46.6 51.0 40.3 45.0 46.8
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
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Urban Food Budget Shares-Meat & Eggs
--------------------------------% Expenditure Share -----------------------------------
Lusaka Kitwe Mansa Food Items
low med high low med high low med high
Meat & eggs 14.0 18.0 18.6 11.8 16.8 19.1 7.9 14.9 16.5
Read Meat 5.2 7.4 8.1 3.7 5.6 7.2 1.5 4.4 6.0
Pork 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.5
Chicken/poultry 5.7 6.6 7.4 5.9 8.2 9.7 4.6 7.2 7.1
Eggs 1.7 2.7 2.2 1.8 2.4 2.3 0.8 2.4 2.9
Dairy items 3.4 5.8 6.7 2.0 3.7 5.7 0.6 1.8 3.5
Staples 28.4 24.2 18.7 31.8 26.6 22.0 32.1 27.2 23.0
Vegetables 17.6 12.9 9.8 18.6 14.4 10.5 13.1 11.2 9.5
All other expenditure 36.6 39.1 46.2 35.8 38.5 42.7 46.3 44.9 47.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
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Principal Crop Zones
Maize-led economy
Surplus Maize – Central and South
Surplus Cassava – North
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Livelihood Zones
Zambia has potential for diversity
For most recent livelihood zone report see http://www.fews.net/sites/default/files/documents/reports/ZM_LZ_descriptions_2014.pdf
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Evidence that many smallholder households are land constrained
-- 25% have less than 0.5 ha of land
-- 58% indicate there is no unallocated land in their village
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Smallholder farmers land constrained Smallholder farmers land constrained
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Percent of smallholder that say “There is NO land available”
<20%20-40%41-60%61-80%>81%
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Source: FSRP (2009). Agricultural Surveys – Voice of smallholder farmers
Population Density and Distribution in Zambia, 2007
Settlements concentrated on
areas with infrastructure
Considerable land is covered by water, national parks, GMA
Hence the paradox of land constraints in
midst of plenty
Land Utilization Follows Land Utilization Follows Infrastructure DevelopmentInfrastructure Development
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Land constraints
Rural settlement follows public investment in rural infrastructure
Land constraints in a land-abundant country is not a paradox economically viable arable land requires access
to basic services, water, schools, roads, and markets.
The basic public investments to make settlement economically viable have yet been made in many areas of Zambia
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Food crops production trends21
Maize and Cassava production
Source: CFS, various years
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Food crops production trends22
Groundnuts, Sweet potato and Beans production
Source: CFS, various years
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Negatively affecting Crop DiversificationNegatively affecting Crop Diversification23
Source: CFS, various years
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Average yields of key commodities compared to global average
Source: CFS datasets, various years with Global figures obtained from COMESA
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Livestock Ownership among Smallholder farmers
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Source: RALS (2012): Note HH=household
Of 1,417,992 smallholder farmers 21.2% own cattle25.3% own goats14.7% own pigs 0.6% own sheep76% own village chicken
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Average Number of livestock Owned among Smallholder Livestock Households
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Source: RALS (2012)
National average of livestock owned among smallholder households
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Cassava
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Zambia Cassava Production
most important crop grown after maize produced by small-scale farmers
Current production >1million tons/year >80% of households in the cassava belt rely on
cassava as a staple especially the poorest Great potential
Two initiatives started to enhance cassava production and utilization Root and Tuber Improvement Programme Acceleration of Cassava Utilization Task Force Cassava Strategy Plan for the sector
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Zambia Cassava Production
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Urban Food Budget Shares For Key Products, 2007
Food Item ----------% expenditure share ----------
Lusaka Kitwe
Mansa Kasama
Cereals & Staples 24.1 27.4 28.0 27.2
Dairy items 5.2 3.6 1.7 2.0
Meat & eggs 16.8 15.6 12.7 14.5
Fish 7.6 8.4 12.4 12.5
Vegetables 13.7 15.0 11.4 14.2
Fruits 3.6 4 3.7 4.0
Other Foods 16.4 17.1 16.9 18.4
Tobacco & alcohol 5.3 4.6 6.3 4.0
Food away from home
7.3 4.3 6.9 3.2
Total 100.0 100.0
100.0 100.0
• Cheap effective source of vitamins, minerals & calories.
• Positive impact on other agro production systems (re investment potential).
• Potential avenue for poverty reduction through ag for land-constrained farmers
• BUT, land constrained farmers tend to be poor in income and assets (including education)
• And hort. production requires high use of inputs such as cash inputs and knowledge
Horticulture: An option for smallscale producers?
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Horticulture not yet playing a major role for most land-constrained farmers
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
1 2 3 4 5
Quintile of land holding
Sh
are
selli
ng
Share of hhs selling ffv and maize, by quintile of land holding
FFV
Maize
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Share selling ffv and maize, by quintile of land holdingKENYA
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1 2 3 4 5
Quintile of land holding
Sh
are
sellin
g
FFV
Maize
Playing a much larger role in Kenya
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Conclusion
Zambia has: potential to have broad-based economic growth; potential to address the stubbornly high rural
poverty rates and high malnutrition; potential to be the ‘breadbasket for the region’; But: Policies should evolve and take advantage
of the many agricultural opportunities arising from the rising food demand, rising urban incomes and the changing consumption patterns.
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