in defense of ambiguity

blog: jabe.co

FAILINGprinciples and practices of

Vanity Validation a Paradox of Passionate Commitment

WELL

@cyetain

In Defense ofAmbiguity

@cyetain

blog http://jabe.co

Send Anonymous Feedback

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Joshua (Jabe) BloomCTO : The Library Corporation

& TLC Labs

#lkce12

@cyetain

To envision the the types technology TLC may

reasonably be expected produce in 5-10 years and to prepare the staff of TLC to envision, create, produce, and support that software.

@cyetain

Neurosis is the inability to tolerate ambiguity.

-Sigmund Freud

@cyetain

Psychological or spiritual development always requires

a greater capacity for anxiety and ambiguity.

-Carl Jung

@cyetain

What Do You Mean By Ambiguity

Disambiguating Ambiguity

@cyetain

there is a sort of meaning (of ambiguity), the sort that

people are thinking of when they say ‘this poet will mean more to you when you have

had more experiences of life’...-William Empson

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Clarity of Ambiguity

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Ignorance Preserving Statements

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Minimalist, clear, informed, ignorance preserving statements, allowing

multiple concurrent plausible explanations or solutions.

@cyetain

“Management literature is virtually unanimous about the value of goal setting,

although implementations of it are often quite terrible. Goals are necessary for expressing directives.”

-Jurgen Appelo

@cyetain

If any one idea about leadership has inspired

organizations for thousands of years, it's the capacity to hold a shared picture of the

future we seek to create-Peter Senge

@cyetain

“When you seek it, you cannot find it”

-Zen Proverb

@cyetain

“Most systems thinking approaches focus on

defining an ideal future state, then seek to close

the gap.”-David Snowden

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Although our intellect always longs for clarity

and certainty, our nature often finds uncertainty

fascinating.-Karl Von Clausewitz

@cyetain

The most important figures that one needs for

management are unknown or unknowable, but

successful management must nevertheless take

account of them.-Deming

@cyetain

Is It Possible to Design Systems That Tolerate Uncertainty?

Can We Use Ambiguity Tolerance as an Advantage?

cognitive edge

@cyetain

GOALCurrent

StateUNCERTAINTY? ?

of

How

Ambiguous Methods

@cyetain

Current

State

GOAL

GOALGOAL

GOAL

UNCERTAINTY

?

?

of

What

? ??

?

Ambiguous Goals

@cyetain

Visual Ambiguity

@cyetain

EXERCISE REMOVEDplease contact me if you would like a copy of the

exercise

@cyetain

•Direction can Collapse Ambiguity•Ambiguity Makes it difficult to create a shared vision•Just because you Know something doesn’t mean you can experience it•Specificity can be dangerous

@cyetain

Zeckhauser's Problem

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EXERCISE REMOVEDif you would like a copy of the exerciseplease contact me: jabe@cyetain.com

@cyetain

Risk Aversionvs

Ambiguity Aversion

@cyetain

An Abstract NarrativeThe Story of Many

Projects

@cyetain

Time

Attention

@cyetain

Time

Atte

ntio

n

Idea

l Fut

ure

Stat

e

@cyetain

Time

Atte

ntio

n

Idea

l Fut

ure

Stat

e

Zone

Of P

lann

ing

@cyetain

Authoritative

Finalized

Rigid

Leaders are “the ones who are supposed to know.”

Goal is positioned as the final answer to the most important question: “how do we succeed”?

~Thomas Wendthttp://www.slideshare.net/ThomasMWendt/context-in-mobile-ux-strategy-the-importance-of-being-fickle

Parameters defined by the plan to close the gap are the lines separating success and failure

@cyetain

Simplified

Simple

Complicated Complex

Chaotic

@cyetain

Time

Atte

ntio

n

Idea

l Fut

ure

Stat

e

Zone

Of P

lann

ing

Interval of Expectation

Official Start of Project

@cyetain

Time

Atte

ntio

n

Idea

l Fut

ure

Stat

e

Zone

Of P

lann

ing

Interval of Expectation

Official Start of Project ~15% of Project Left

@cyetain

Time

Atte

ntio

n

Idea

l Fut

ure

Stat

e

Zone

Of P

lann

ing

Interval of Expectation

Official Start of Project

Zone

Of S

URPR

ISE!

~15% of Project Left

@cyetain

Time

Atte

ntio

n

Idea

l Fut

ure

Stat

e

Zone

Of P

lann

ing

Interval of Expectation

Official Start of Project

Zone

Of S

URPR

ISE!

~15% of Project Left

Management Interaction Gap

Time

Atte

ntio

n

Idea

l Fut

ure

Stat

e

Zone

Of P

lann

ing

Interval of Expectation

Official Start of Project

Zone

Of S

URPR

ISE!

~15% of Project Left

Management Interaction Gap

Time

Atte

ntio

n

Idea

l Fut

ure

Stat

e

Zone

Of P

lann

ing

Interval of Expectation

Official Start of Project

Zone

Of S

URPR

ISE!

~15% of Project Left

Management Interaction Gap

@cyetain

Simplified

Simple

Complicated Complex

Chaotic

@cyetain

Collapse

Imposition

@cyetain

The Manager’s Challenge

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What is the Cost of Consensus?

@cyetain

Volitionthe Basis for Action

@cyetain

@cyetain

@cyetain

@cyetain

@cyetain

Simple

Complicated Complex

Chaotic

@cyetain

It is VERY Hard to Create Shared Communal

Knowledge About Novel Behavior and Information

@cyetain

It is VERY Easy to Cause a Collapse of

Novel Behavior

@cyetain

Negative Capability, that is, when a man is capable of

being in uncertainties, mysteries, doubts, without any irritable reaching after

fact and reason-John Keats

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What We Are Trying at TLC Labs

Things you might try at home

@cyetain

when we stand in the zendo we have some rules. But the purpose of these rules is not to make everyone the same, but to allow each to express

his own self most freely-Shunryu Suzuki

@cyetain

Re-Invest Efficiency Gains in Exploration &

Innovation

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Short Cycle Times are a Capability

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Iterative Learningvs

Incremental Development

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Start Here

Flow Towards Customer

@cyetain Start Here

Flow Towards Customer

Kill Queues & Minimize Cycle Time This Way

Variability Lowers As We Move Towards Delivery

@cyetain

It isn’t Unfair or

Anti-Humanist to treat Machines like Machines

(look for opportunities to automate)

@cyetain

Distributed Thinkingvs

Diverse Thinking

@cyetain

Directed

Constrained

Self - Direction

Goal Driven

Self - Organization

Authoritative

Simple

Complicated Complex

Chaotic

@cyetain

What & HowLeader:

Why & WhatLeader:

How

Experts:

WhyLeader:

What & How

Team Members:

What & NOWLeader:

Directed

ConstrainedSelf - Direction

Goal DrivenSelf - Organization

AuthoritativeSimple

Complicated Complex

Chaotic

@cyetain

People who operate under their own autonomy are more likely to care

about their work, notice and react to changes in context and be innovative

@cyetain

When innovation is required to solve novel problems, diverse

perspectives allow the organization to “see around corners”

@cyetain

The shorter the distance between relevant information and people making decisions, the better likelihood there is

that good decisions will be made

@cyetain

Faster cycle times are driven by distributed decision making. Faster cycle

times mean less “big bet” risks. Combined with customer interaction,

faster cycle times result in higher quality software and higher customer

satisfaction

@cyetain

Just Say No to Xenophobia

Utilize Abduction&

Scientific Method

@cyetain

Multi-Hypothesis Research

!=

@cyetain

BRAINSTORM

@cyetain

TheoriesOpinions

Hypothesizes

The Facts and Just the Facts

@cyetain

TheoriesOpinions

Hypothesizes

ConstraintsCriteria

@cyetain

TheoriesOpinions

Hypothesizes

QuestionFacts

@cyetain

TheoriesOpinions

Hypothesizes Request More Information

@cyetain

How Would I Validate my

understanding of this

problem?How Would I

solve this

Problem?

•Based on your experiences, what would you do to solve this problem? This is your Hypothesis.•Identify What Needs to Be True if your Hypothesis is true.•Assert, Presume, Assume Truth•Imagine Experiments that would justify the Assumptions

@cyetain

I Assert that this I know this

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

n

Pretty Sure

theory is wrong

Pretty Sure

theory is right

Interesting Ideas

I Presume Somebody knows this

I am going to Assume

this is true for my

Hypothesis to be true

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

n

Pretty Sure

theory is wrong

Pretty Sure

theory is right

Interesting Ideas

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

n

Pretty Sure

theory is wrong

Pretty Sure

theory is right

Interesting Ideas

@cyetain

This is my Hypothesis,

Assumptions and

Experiments

ChallengeAssumptions & Experiments

Rotate Pairs 2-3 TimesAllow Time for Revision Between Rounds

@cyetain

This is my Hypothesis,

Assumptions and

Experiments

@cyetain

Multiple Smaller Experimentsagainst

Multiple Abductive Hypotheses

instead of

Single Large Experimentagainst

Single Hypotheses

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Using Kanban To EnableAmbiguity & Innovation

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Rules Are Waste

@cyetain

Know Where You AreDispositionality

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Visual Ambiguity

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Optionality

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Focus on Customer

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Influences &

Sources of More Information

if we are honest about how our knowing reveals our unknowing… we encourage others to know in diverse ways

-jabe bloom

@cyetain

Joshua (Jabe) BloomCTO : The Library Corporation

& TLC Labs

blog http://jabe.coSend Anonymous Feedback

http://sayat.me/jabebloom