improving sem results through multi-channel conversion attribution - kenshoo webinar
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Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information |
Improving SEM Results through Multi-Channel Conversion Attribution
November 2012
Sponsored by
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 2
Webinar information
Audio instructions• Listen via computer speakers or dial into the conference call using numbers in email
from gotowebinar@citrixonline.com
Still can’t hear audio? Tell us please!
Webinar Information
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 3
Presenters
[Daniel Morgan]Head of SearchAccor
[Ariel Rosenstein]Director of MarketingResearchKenshoo
[Yossi Synett]Research AnalyticsTeam Lead Kenshoo
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 4
Agenda
Importance of Multi-Channel Approach
History of Attribution
Reinvestment = Attribution
Types of Attribution Models
Viewing Data Via Different Models
Accor Case Study
Choosing the Right Model
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 5
About Kenshoo
Controlled Automation Algorithmic Optimization
Holistic Attribution Infrastructure Integration
✔ ✔ ✔
✔
✔
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 6
Kenshoo.com/ForresterWave
The Forrester Wave is copyrighted by Forrester Research, Inc. Forrester and Forrester Wave are trademarks of Forrester Research, Inc. The Forrester Wave is a graphical representation of Forrester's call on a market and is plotted using a detailed spreadsheet with exposed scores, weightings, and comments. Forrester does not endorse any vendor, product, or service depicted in the Forrester Wave. Information is based on best available resources. Opinions reflect judgment at the time and are subject to change.
Forrester Wave™: Bid Management Software Providers, Q4 '12
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Importance ofMulti-Channel Approach
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 8
More important now, more than ever
1996 2011245 millions U.S. internet users Average usage: 27 hours/month
Top rated TV show Sunday Night Football 10.7% of household per average
week
92% of surfers use a search engine
Average Facebook user 15.5 hours/month on site
Video game usage matures Average gamer is 32 years old 2 out of 5 gamers are female
20 millions U.S. internet users Average usage: 30 minutes/month
Top rated TV show ER 35% of household per average week
Source: OnlineUniversity.net
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Increased mobile activity but results differ by device
Kenshoo Aggregate U.S. Client Metrics Q3 2012
TABLETPHONECOMPUTER
CLICKS 79% 11% 10%
AD SPEND 87% 6% 7%
CPC $0.48 $0.23 $0.31
CONVERSIONS 91.72% .061% 8.67%
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Search engines performance varies
QUARTERLY U.S. SEARCH ENGINEAVERAGE CLICK-THROUGH RATES
Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 20120.00%
0.20%
0.40%
0.60%
0.80%
1.00%
1.20%
1.40%
1.60%
1.80%
1.03%1.08% 1.10%
0.89%
1.01%
1.25%
1.09%1.18%
1.49% 1.49%1.56%
1.61%
Google Yahoo Bing Network
Source: Kenshoo Global Search Advertising Trends, © 2012, Kenshoo, Inc.
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 11
Search engines’ performance varies
QUARTERLY U.S. SEARCH ADVERTISINGRETURN ON AD SPEND BY SEARCH ENGINE
Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012
1.00
1.14
0.991.04 1.05
0.96
1.271.20
1.241.30 1.29
1.23
Google Yahoo Bing Network
Source: Kenshoo Global Search Advertising Trends, © 2012, Kenshoo, Inc.
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 12
Facebook makes customers reachableat all times of day
CONVERSIONS BY TIME OF DAY (FACEBOOK)
12:0
0 AM
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:0
0 AM
11:0
0 AM
12:0
0 PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
10:0
0 PM
11:0
0 PM
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
Source: Kenshoo Social DSP partners
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History of Conversion Attribution
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The early days of PPC
2003 Yahoo!buys Overture
a company
2002 AdWordsgoes to PPC Model
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The assumption: One Conversion = One Click
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Keyword 1
Green T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Blue T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Keyword 2
Red T-ShirtXL Size
AvailableT-shirt.com
Keyword 3
Last-Click Attribution Model:• Solves conversion duplication issue• Assumes last click is most important
Discovering the need for conversion attribution
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Reinvestment = Conversion Attribution
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Reinvestment based on data
Mutli-Source Data Reconciliation
Mutli-Channel Data Connections
Attribution Model
Keyword Selection
Ad Copy & Testing
Campaign Structure
Sites and Content
Devices
Geographies
Algorithm Selection
Algorithm Configuration
Forecasting & Scenarios
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 19
GroovyTravel.com investment strategy(with Last-Click attribution)
Investment£600
Revenue
£500
cheap flights to Mexico
Revenue£1000
Investment
£200
GroovyTravel.com
£800.00
£1,500.
00
ROAS = 0.83 ROAS = 5
Total ROAS = 1.88
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GroovyTravel.com investment strategy(with Last-Click attribution)
Investment£200
Revenue
£180
cheap flights to Mexico
Revenue£800
Intended Investment
£600
Actual Investment
£400
GroovyTravel.com
£600.00
£980.00
ROAS = 0.9 ROAS = 2
Total ROAS = 1.63
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GroovyTravel.com path to conversion
£450cheap flights to Mexico
£100GroovyTravel.com
£900GroovyTravel.com
cheap flights to Mexico
£50cheap
flights to Mexico
GroovyTravel.com
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GroovyTravel.com investment strategy(with Distribute-Evenly attribution)
Revenue£925
Investment
£600
cheap flights to Mexico
Revenue£575
Investment
£200
GroovyTravel.com
£800.00
£1,500.
00
ROAS = 1.54 ROAS = 2.88
Total ROAS = 1.88
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 23
GroovyTravel.com investment strategy (with Distribute-Evenly attribution)
Revenue£1100
Investment
£800
cheap flights to Mexico
Revenue£700
Investment
£300
GroovyTravel.com
£1,100.
00
£1,800.
00
ROAS = 1.38 ROAS = 2.33
Total ROAS = 1.64
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Types of Attribution Models
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Keyword 1
Green T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Blue T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Keyword 2
Red T-ShirtXL Size
AvailableT-shirt.com
Keyword 3
Industry Default Model
Attribution Models: Last-Click
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Attribution Models: Linear
60%25%10%5%
Attribution Models
Linear
U-Shaped
Distribute-Evenly
Single Click Only (First or Last)
Keyword 1
Green T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Blue T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Keyword 2
Red T-ShirtXL Size
AvailableT-shirt.com
Keyword 3
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Attribution Models: Non-Linear
40%10%10%40%
Attribution Models
Linear
U-Shaped
Distribute-Evenly
Single Click Only (First or Last)
Keyword 1
Green T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Blue T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Keyword 2
Red T-ShirtXL Size
AvailableT-shirt.com
Keyword 3
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Attribution Models: Distribute-Evenly
25%25%25%25%
Attribution Models
Linear
U-Shaped
Distribute-Evenly
Single Click Only (First or Last)
Keyword 1
Green T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Blue T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Keyword 2
Red T-ShirtXL Size
AvailableT-shirt.com
Keyword 3
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Attribution Models: Single Click Only(First or Last)
100%0%0%0%
Attribution Models
Linear
U-Shaped
Distribute-Evenly
Single Click Only (First or Last)
Keyword 1
Green T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Blue T-ShirtGreat PricesT-shirt.com
Keyword 2
Red T-ShirtXL Size
AvailableT-shirt.com
Keyword 3
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 30
Last Click Attribution Undervalues FB Performance
Increase in Facebook ROI for RetailAdvertiser Based on Revenue Attribution
• Last Touch
FirstOnly
PreferFirst
DistributeEvenly
U-Shaped PreferLast
LastTouch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Last Click Attribution Undervalues FB Performance
Increase in Facebook ROI for RetailAdvertiser Based on Revenue Attribution
• Last Touch
• Prefer Last
FirstOnly
PreferFirst
DistributeEvenly
U-Shaped PreferLast
LastTouch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Last Click Attribution Undervalues FB Performance
Increase in Facebook ROI for RetailAdvertiser Based on Revenue Attribution
• Last Touch
• Prefer Last
• U-Shaped
FirstOnly
PreferFirst
DistributeEvenly
U-Shaped PreferLast
LastTouch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Last Click Attribution Undervalues FB Performance
Increase in Facebook ROI for RetailAdvertiser Based on Revenue Attribution
• Last Touch
• Prefer Last
• U-Shaped
• Distribute Evenly
FirstOnly
PreferFirst
DistributeEvenly
U-Shaped PreferLast
LastTouch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Last Click Attribution Undervalues FB Performance
Increase in Facebook ROI for RetailAdvertiser Based on Revenue Attribution
• Last Touch
• Prefer Last
• U-Shaped
• Distribute Evenly
• Prefer First
FirstOnly
PreferFirst
DistributeEvenly
U-Shaped PreferLast
LastTouch
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Last Click Attribution Undervalues FB Performance
Increase in Facebook ROI for RetailAdvertiser Based on Revenue Attribution
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
• Last Touch
• Prefer Last
• U-Shaped
• Distribute Evenly
• Prefer First
• First Only
FirstOnly
PreferFirst
DistributeEvenly
U-Shaped PreferLast
LastTouch
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Case Study: Major US RetailerInterplay between search & social channels
20% of all conversion paths showed ad clicks from more than one channel (search and social)• Over 1/3 had brand queries in the path to conversion• Consumers discover brand on FB and then search for it by name
Logarithmic Distribution of Keywords in Multi-Channel Conversion Paths
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 37
Viewing Data via Different Models
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 38
Considering multiple channels usingKenshoo Attribution Model Simulator
• Leading US pet supply cataloger using last-click attribution
• Brought data from various channels (email, CSE, display) into Kenshoo
• Using Kenshoo Attribution Model Simulator, saw best and worst case ROI for each channel under different models
• Determined which model was best fit by seeing how different channels would benefit or lose from changing models
Total
1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50
2.27
2.12
2.47
2.24
2.31
2.29
ROI – Display
U Shape Prefer First Prefer Last
First Only Last Only Divide Equal
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Case Study: Moving away from Last-Click
U.S. national service center chain increases ROI by changing attribution model following a multi-model attribution analysis
Key Lessons
Different regions have different behaviors
Last-Click model was holding back potential new to file customers
Prefer last model better allocated money
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information |
82% Increase in Revenues Year-on-Year using Kenshoo’s U-shaped Model (Generic Keywords Jan-Mar 2011 Vs 2012)
41
About Accor
Present in 92 countries, with more than 3,500 hotels and 440,000 rooms, Accor’s brands offer hotel stays tailored to the specific needs of each business and leisure customer.
42
Introduction So Sofitel Bangkok
• Accor Group began working with Kenshoo in April 2011
• Accor run paid search campaigns across all 13 brands in over 80 countries on the Kenshoo Platform
• In combination with Kenshoo, Accor use 2 other tracking softwares – TARS & Xiti
• Campaigns are optimised using Kenshoo data but internal reports continue to use TARS
43
1. Accor’s Internal Tracking is based on Last Click Attribution
…Yet Search is so much more than an isolated
media channel
The Rest of Online Media
Above-the-Line Media
Search Engines
The Complex Challenge Ibis Leiden Netherlands
44
Search Engine
• The user clicks on an Accor Paid Search Ad
On-Site Search
• They arrive on the Accorhotels.com site and search for a hotel – No Reservation
Reservation on Sister
site
• They then access the Brand website directly AND Reserve No Internal Sales
Attribution
2. Cross-site conversions were untracked
The Complex Challenge Ibis Leiden Netherlands
45
Accor Turns to Kenshoo for a Solution...
What we found • Cross site conversion - SEA is directly affecting the direct access of all Accor’s websites• Maps , Affiliation, Email -The more we spend on SEA the higher our revenues
Direct SEA Sales; 66%
Cross-site Conver-sions at-
tributed as "Direct En-try" inter-nally; 18%
Other Search Cam-
paigns; 8%
Partners/Affil; 5%Maps; 4%
… Kenshoo showed that SEA is strongly linked
with all other channels
Total SEA Kenshoo Sales Broken Down by Accor’s Internal Tracking Attribution
46
No more conspiracy theories…
What we found:• Generic affects brand – 10% of Brand sales started searches on generics• Brand affects generic – Surprisingly 20% of brand searches generated generic clicks• Brand affects other brand – Multiple Accor Brand Searches e.g. ibis then etap,then accor• Generic affects generic – From broad searches to long tail e.g. “hotel paris” TO hotel “paris
with pool, excepts cats”
40%
40%
6.7%
6.7%
6.7%
U-Shaped Model - attributes greater value to the first and last clicks in the path with both the starting and the closing keywords getting the same credit regardless of the length of the conversion path.
Attribution Value
…Each Keyword’s Real Value Can Be Viewed & Acted Upon Automatically
47
Optimisation becomes easier…
…despite the complexity of the online purchasing funnel
But the next challenge is to see if those campaigns that don’t covert have a positive affect outside the cookie period?
Can Search Act as an Awareness tool?
No need to spend in hope - Accor can optimise campaigns by pausing any keywords or campaigns that do not contribute to any conversion.
48
Developing an online relationship is key…
Display,Offline,
PR
SEM,Natural Search,
Partners/Affil
Social,Natural Search
Success still heavily relies upon generating awareness, which at the moment Search does not do well!
…Accor still see strong evidence that the old funnel still exists
48
49
The Results
Accor’s Search Team can justify higher spend on paid search
Comparing the period from 1st January 2011 to 31st March 2011 when Kenshoo tracking had not been implemented, to the same period in the year 2012:
• 82% increase in revenues • Only 36% increase in spend• 14% increase in revenues across all other channels • 33% increase from brand terms
Pullman Bangkok
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 50
How to choose the right model
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 51
Attribution Model Simulation: Inform your investment decisions
Track activity across multiple channels
Gain target and keyword-level insight including contribution in the conversion path
Empower strategic decisions for budget allocation, bid management, and keyword selection
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 52
Get insights
• Any single model will only show a single viewpoint, compare different models for the most comprehensive view
• Lower costs by pruning ads/keywords that have no touch-points in any conversion attribution model
• Expand assisting keywords to find new traffic generators and widen you market reach• Don’t miss the forest for the trees, apply real world categories and use your own
business logic to make attribution model decisions
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 53
Download the full whitepaper
Kenshoo.com/ConversionAttributionWhitepaper
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 54
The Yahoo! Bing Network is a must-buy
Excerpt from Kenshoo GLOBAL SEARCH ADVERTISING TRENDS, October 2012 Edition
“…with YBN consistently delivering better ROAS… the new imperative for marketers is, at the very least, to be active on YBN, if not make it the first place resources are allocated and maximized.
Kenshoo: Proprietary and Confidential Information | 55
Thank you
webcast@kenshoo.com
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