hurricane sandy the tenth hurricane and first superstorm of 2012 october 22– november ?, 2012...

HURRICANE SANDYTHE TENTH HURRICANE AND FIRST

SUPERSTORM OF 2012 October 22– November ?, 2012

Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of

North Carolina, USA

TROPICAL STORM SANDY AKA “FRANKENSTORM” FORMED ON

OCT. 22ND

Sandy quickly became a CAT 1 hurricane that left 58 dead and devastation in the

Caribbean and the Bahamas before making landfall in New Jersey and transforming into a Super Storm

TROPICAL STORM SANDY: OCTOBER 22

CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24

FORECAST FOR SANDY: OCTOBER 24

OCTOBER 24: CAT I HURRRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL NEAR KINGSTON, THE

CAPITOL OF JAMACIA

Schools and businesses were closed and people in low-lying areas at risk

from flooding were evacuated

SANDY: OCTOBER 24

Sandy, the season’s tenth hurricane, became a huge storm with wind and rain bands reaching out 500 km or more from the storm center, producing 15-50 cm of

rain in Jamaica, Bermuda, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Cuba

SANDY: HOPE RIVER RISING; KINGSTON, JAMAICA

KINGSTON, JAMACIA: FIRE FROM FAULTY GENERATOR

SANDY: PREPARATION IN PORT AU PRINCE, HAITI

SANDY: RAIN IN HAITI

SANDY: RAIN IN PORT AU PRINCE, HAITI

SANDY: BRIDGE WASHED AWAY; PORT AU PRINCE, HAITI

SANDY: HUGE WAVES IN SANTA DOMINGO, DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

SANDY: FLOODING IN LA JAVILLA, SANTA DOMINGO

SANDY: WIND DAMAGE IN SANTIAGO DE CUBA

SANDY: WAVES IN HAVANA. CUBA: OCTOBER 25

SANDY: RAIN BEGINS IN FORT LAUDERDALE, FLORIDA; OCT. 26

SANDY: FRIDAY; OCT, 26

SANDY’S FORECAST: OCT 26

A STATE OF EMERGENCY DECLARED FOR USA’s EASTERN SEABOARD

STATES

OCTOBER 26

LIKELY IMPACTS OF SANDY ON “FLORIDA SATURDAY”-- OCTOBER 27

• Miami, Florida, which was already water-logged from 1 ½ meters of rain this summer, is expected to experience more rain, gusty winds, huge waves, and dangerous rip tides as a temporarily weakened Sandy continues to move northward in Florida’s warmer waters.

POSSIBILE DISASTER SCENARIOS AFTER SATURDAY, OCTOBER 27

• Sandy could veer northeastward and eventually die in the Atlantic, OR, MORE LIKELY …

POSSIBILE DISASTER SCENARIOS (continued)

• As Sandy moves northward, it could combine with a cold front weather system and become a powerful, long- duration “SUPERSTORM (AKA NOR’EASTER) causing potential losses in excess of $1 billion dollars, bringing heavy rain, high winds, 2 ½ m storm surge, and 10 million power outages.

OCTOBER 27

As of 11 a.m., the center was located about 355 miles (590 km)

southeast of Charleston, SC, moving at 75 mph (125 kph),

with a pressure of 958 mb

FEMA’S IMMEDIATE ACTIONS

• FEMA is working with state and local governments and pointing the public to the Ready. gov website

• NASA is providing live tracking of the storm online

• The National Hurricane Center is providing an ongoing public advisory

URILITY COMPANIES IMMEDIATE ACTIONS

• Anticipating a long-duration storm with many downed trees and 10 million associated power outages, utility companies are preparing back-up crews and positioning assets in advance to cope with the potential impacts.

NASA PHOTO OF HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24

OCEAN CITY, MD: PREPARATION FOR SANDY

CAPE MAY, NEW JERSEY: PREPARATION FOR SANDY

COLD SPRING, NEW JERSEY: PREPARATION FOR

SANDY

NEW YORK CITY: PREPARATION TO PREVENT SUBWAY FLOODING

NEW YORK CITY BEGINS TO PREPARE FOR

SANDY’S IMPACTS Mayor Michael Bloomberg activated the city's emergency management

situation room and had city agencies preparing for potential

evacuations and a possible shutdown of the transit system

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28

Sandy is expected to make history as it is transformed from a hurricane to a “Super Storm” on Tuesday, affecting 60 million

people with tropical force winds extending outward from the center for 700 miles (1,125 km) and historic 2 ½ m storm

surges

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28

• A 24-36 HOUR HIGH WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA STARTING ON MONDAY MORNING (OCT. 29)

• EVACUATIONS HAVE BEGUN IN THE TRI-STATE AREA OF NEW JERSEY, NEW YORK, AND CONNECTICUT IN ANTICIPATION OF LANDFALL IN NEW JERSEY ON TUESDAY (OCT. 30)

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28 (Continued)

• Coastal communities in Delaware ordered to evacuate by 8:00 pm today.

• Utility crews have started trimming trees to prevent some of the anticipated 10 million, long-duration power outages.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 28 (Continued)

• New York City closed bus and subway systems on Sunday evening because of the threat of subway flooding and announced that schools for 1.1 million children would be closed on Monday (Oct. 29).

• Over 1,000 airline flights were cancelled on Sunday; 1,200 on Monday.

SHORT SUMMARY OF RISK REDUCTION

STRATEGIES

SHORT SUMMARY OF RISK REDUCTION

STRATEGIES

E

WIND WIND DAMAGEDAMAGE

WIND WIND DAMAGEDAMAGE

UNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISKUNACCEPTABLE RISK

WATER DAMAGEWATER DAMAGEWATER DAMAGEWATER DAMAGE

LOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTIONLOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTION

ECONOMIC LOSS ECONOMIC LOSS DEATHSDEATHS

ECONOMIC LOSS ECONOMIC LOSS DEATHSDEATHS

RISKRISKRISKRISK

WIND PENETRATING BUILDING ENVELOPE

SEVERE WINDSTORMS

SEVERE WINDSTORMS

UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM

FLYING DEBRIS

STORM SURGE

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN

SITING PROBLEMS

FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

CAUSES OF DAMAGE

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

“DISASTER LABORATORIES”

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR REDUCING THE RISK

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR REDUCING THE RISK

• REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND PHYSICAL EFFECTS

• MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, WIND SPEEDS; PRESSURE, INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION)

• REAL TIME FORECASTS OF PATH AND PHYSICAL EFFECTS

• MEASUREMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., DOPPLER RADAR, WIND SPEEDS; PRESSURE, INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION)

• DATABASES• WIND ENGINEERING • MAPS: STORM SURGE• DISASTER SCENARIOS• STORM CHASER

PLANES/DRONES• WARNING SYSTEMS• RISK MODELING (E.G.,

HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

• DATABASES• WIND ENGINEERING • MAPS: STORM SURGE• DISASTER SCENARIOS• STORM CHASER

PLANES/DRONES• WARNING SYSTEMS• RISK MODELING (E.G.,

HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)

RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES

• PURPOSE

• MONITORING FOR COMPUTER MODELING

• PROTECTION

• PURPOSE

• MONITORING FOR COMPUTER MODELING

• PROTECTION

• TECHNIQUE

• DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION

• WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION; PLYWOOD; STORM SHUTTERS

• TECHNIQUE

• DOPPLER RADAR; PLANES; DRONES; SATTELITES; INTL SPACE STATION

• WIND-RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION; PLYWOOD; STORM SHUTTERS

PROTECTIONPROTECTION

• ACTIONS TO KEEP THE WIND AND RAIN OUT OF THE HOUSE CAN BE TAKEN IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM TO PREVENT LOSS.

• ACTIONS TO KEEP THE WIND AND RAIN OUT OF THE HOUSE CAN BE TAKEN IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM TO PREVENT LOSS.

NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICALEVACUATION IS TYPICAL

NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICALEVACUATION IS TYPICAL

FLOODS

HURRICANES

TYPHOONS

TSUNAMIS

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

WILDFIRES

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY

GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAYOF HARM’S WAY

GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAYOF HARM’S WAY

IF YOU CHOOSE NOT TO EVACUATE, YOU MUST

ADAPT TO THE IMPACTS OF THE WIND, RAIN, SNOW, FLOODING, MUDSLIDES,

AND HEALTH IMPACTS THAT ARE LIKELY TO HAPPEN