humber bridge review results from the humber estuary transport model
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Humber Bridge Review
Results from the HUMBER ESTUARY TRANSPORT MODEL
This presentation
• The model• Results of option tests• Traffic impacts • Economic appraisal
Purpose of the model
• To allow the assessment of the impact of different tolling scenarios for the Humber Bridge on both:• traffic flows• the Humber area economy
• Designed to be consistent with the DfT’s Transport Analysis Guidance (WebTAG)
• Designed to forecast the demand response to changes in the tolls in terms of the number & destination of trips made, as well as route choice
Model area
Full extent: area bounded by Thirsk, Scarborough, Grantham, Boston.
Western boundary: A1
>200 traffic origin/ destination zones plus externals
Model area
Network where all traffic movement actively simulated (links and junctions shown):
west of Scunthorpe to east of Hull
150 traffic O/D zones
Model capability
• 3 time periods: am peak, interpeak, pm peak • 5 vehicle types: private car, 4x goods vehicle classes• 5 passenger journey purposes: • home-based: journey to work, employer’s business, other• non home-based: employer’s business, other
• 3 income classes (low, medium, high) for commuting & other• each has its own demand elasticity w/ respect to trip cost
• 3 model years: 2010, 2021, 2033• Does not model public transport
Model source data
• Update & extension of pre-existing north bank model• 41,000 roadside interviews on trip origin/destination,
journey purpose at 38 sites (5,000 interviews at 5 sites bespoke for this study);
• >100 traffic count sites
• Growth in trips 2010-2033 from DfT National Trip End Model (NTEM) forecast, version 6.2 incorporating the effects of the 2008/09 recession
Toll option tests
• Base case (Do Nothing) = existing toll level in real terms (£2.70 per car in 2010 prices)
• Toll levels tested: • No toll• Maintenance-only level toll, £1 per car (63%
reduction, other vehicle classes pro rata) • £2 per car toll (26% reduction)• £2.43 per car toll (10% reduction)
Traffic in the base model (2010)
Bridge traffic northbound, am peak
Bridge traffic southbound, am peak
Base case, growth in traffic 2010-2033
Base case, growth in congestion delays 2010-2033
Traffic impact of removing tolls (2010)
Impact of reducing tolls by 63%
Impact of reducing tolls by 10%
Change in congestion delays in zero tolls option (2033 am peak)
Modelled effect of toll level on traffic Effect of toll level on bridge traffic (base year), am peak
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00
Toll (£ at 2010 prices)
Vehi
cles
per
hou
r, bo
th d
irect
ions
, am
pea
k
H Bridge (noVDM)
H Bridge(with VDM)
M62 Goole(no VDM)
M62 Goole(with VDM)
Modelled effect of toll level on traffic
Effect of toll level on bridge traffic (base year), interpeak
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
0.000.501.001.502.002.503.00
Toll (£ at 2010 prices)
Vehi
cles
per
hou
r, bo
th d
irect
ions
, am
pea
k
H Bridge (noVDM)
H Bridge(with VDM)
M62 Goole(no VDM)
M62 Goole(with VDM)
Effect of toll level on traffic, base year (with full demand response)
Toll at 2010 prices
Change in toll
Change in traffic am peak
Change in traffic interpeak
2.70 Humber Bg
M62 Goole
Humber Bg
M62 Goole
2.43 -10% 3% 0% 3% 0%2.00 -26% 10% -1% 10% -1%1.35 -50% 25% -1% 26% -1%1.00 -63% 32% -2% 35% -1%0.00 -100% 54% -2% 67% -5%
Economic appraisal
• Economic efficiency of the transport system analysis:• For commuters, other consumers, businesses
(passenger and road freight), impact on: • travel time• vehicle operating cost• user charges
• For the public sector, direct revenues and indirect tax revenues
Economic appraisal
• Wider impacts analysis:• Agglomeration benefits • Welfare benefits
• Broadly speaking, the benefits to employers and employees of a broader, deeper labour pool in a sub-regional labour market
Economic appraisal – transport economic efficiency
TUBA benefits by toll level: road freight
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
00.511.522.53
Toll in 2010 (£)
PVB
£m
Road freight - time
Road freight -VOCRoad freight - tolls
Economic appraisal – transport economic efficiency
Reducing tolls: benefits to users -v- losses to public sector
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
00.511.522.53
Toll in 2010 (£)
Pres
ent v
alue
£m
Commuters- tolls
Other csrs -tolls
Businesspsgr - tolls
Road freight- tolls
Lostrevenue
Economic appraisal – transport economic efficiency
Travel time and vehicle operating costs benefits by toll level
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
500.511.522.53
Toll in 2010 (£)
PVB
£m
Commuters - travel time
Other csrs - travel time
Business psgr - traveltimeCommuters - VOC
Other csrs - VOC
Business psgr - VOC
Present value of benefits and costsbefore wider impacts
Present value of costs & benefits by toll level
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
£0.00£0.50£1.00£1.50£2.00£2.50
Toll
Pres
ent v
alue
(£m
)
PVB pre WITA
PVC
Present value of benefits and costsbefore wider impacts
Breakdown of WITA benefits by toll level
050100150200250300350400450500
00.511.522.53
Toll in 2010 (£)
PVB
£m
Agglomeration
Welfare
Present value of benefits and costswith wider impacts
Present value of costs & benefits by toll level
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
£0.00£0.50£1.00£1.50£2.00£2.50
Toll
Pres
ent v
alue
(£m
)
PVB pre WITA
PVC
PVB w ith WITA
BCR by toll level
BCR by toll level
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
£0.00£0.50£1.00£1.50£2.00£2.50
Toll
BC
R Pre WITA
With WITA
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