how will the northeast atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change?

image:AGU 2003

How will the Northeast Atlanticand its living resources

respond to global climate change?

NordicSeas

Greenland

IcelandNorway

Faroes

Scot-land

Northeast AtlanticBetter predictions for better adaptation

Bogi Hansen, Faroe Marine Research Institute

The Earth

Global climate changeWarming = Energy in – Energy outRegional climate changeWinds and currents move energy

What if theychange ?

NOAA

Mean sea surface temperature

5ºC

60º

60º

5ºC

Iceland

Scot- land

NordicSeas

ArcticOcean

Faroes

CoolingGreenland

North Atlantic

Greenland-Scotland Ridge

Overflow

Cold water from the Arctic sinks and spreads throughout the World Ocean

500 – 1000 years

Labrador Sea

The ”Great Conveyor Belt” (MOC, THC)

Antarctic

Cooling

Increasingsalinity

Freshwater

IPCC-2007:it is very likely that the North Atlantic MOC will slow down during the 21st century

Measurements

image:AGU 2003

Volume transport of Atlantic inflow Inflowing Atlantic water

(millions m3/second)

No significant trend

Iceland-Faroe inflow since 1992

Greenland-Iceland inflow since 1994

Faroe-Shetland inflow since 1992

Labrador Seaconvection

Overflow and Atlantic inflow did probably NOT weaken 1948-2005

But, Labrador Sea convection has been weak since mid-1990s

Projected surface warming 2080-2099for A2 scenario (IPCC 2007)

2 – 3 ºC warming

ºC

Warming 2091-2100 at 200-500 m depth

according to AR4climate models

(Yin et al., 2011)

Average of 19 climate models

Cooling

One model> 3°C warming

Another model> 2°C warming

“No” change MOC model uncertainty remains high in CMIP5 climate models

With warming, fish stocks tend to move towards colder areas

But, changing currents may be more important

Whither the fish

?

Artist:Glynn GorickThe marine ecosystem

King Cod

What will happen to King Cod ?

Temperatureand currents

Phytoplankton

Air temperature

RainWind

Light

Clouds

Ocean acidification

CO2

H2CO3 HCO3 + H+-

CO3 + 2H+--

H+ + CO3 HCO3 ---

The living conditions for fish in the Northeast Atlantic

will, no doubt,change dramatically

But, HOW?