how to build killer betting systems matt bisogno

How To Build Killer Betting Systems

Matt Bisogno

Introduction: Matt Who?!Online since 2006• www.Geegeez.co.uk • www.HorseRacingExperts.co.uk • www.Horse-Racing.ie • www.OnlineBettingExposed.com • www.FootballBettingSystem.com • www.Laying-System.com (sold out currently)• www.MattBisogno.com • Sponsored the Listed geegeez.co.uk Alleged Stakes

last weekend (St Nicholas Abbey's race)• I love betting systems!

What is a Betting System?

16 definitions of ‘system’ on Dictionary.com!

So a betting system is an ordered assemblage of facts and principles in the field of betting.

Where do I start?- An existing product or service became TTS- Smartersig or other similar publications- A ‘hunch’ (see my example at the end of this webinar)- Read racing books (Tip: try to find overseas books, as

their ideas are different and often equally relevant)- Form analysis- A website like raceadvisor or geegeez- Watching racing, and listening to smart racing

presenters (i.e. Racing UK, not Channel 4!)- Your own existing figures (speed, pace, handicap

ratings, etc)

Free or 'nearly free' options

www.RacingPost.com (e.g. trainers)http://adrianmassey.com (free, no data updates from mid-March 2011)www.HorseRaceBase.com (donation)www.pjmracing.co.uk (very cheap tools)www.football-data.co.uk (free)

A word (or three) on 'back-fitting'

- ALL systems are back fitted (including weather forecasting, share trading, forex brokers, and insurance quote systems!) - It's NOT a bad thing (in or of itself) - This has incorrectly been called 'back fitting‘ by a lot of people - Wikipedia has this explanation of 'back fitting' - pick the bones out of that! ;-)

- What IS bad is when people use totally illogical parameters in their systems (remember our definition?)

Rules of Thumb for betting systems - Start with a strong premise and a big enough sample size (the data WILL get whittled down) - Be able to justify why each rule has been included in your system (sound logic please!) - Don't be put off if it takes a little while to get some ‘traction’ (if at first you don’t succeed etc)

- Test on recent years (excluding the most recent complete season)

- Don’t be afraid to be contrarian (that’s where the money is!)

What is a good return from a betting system?

It depends... ! - First, how do we measure return? ROI? Profit? - Based on level of risk, number of bets, effort to

identify selections, and so on - In other words, it depends on YOU - Ask yourself what kind of system best suits your

make up (psychologically, financially, time-wise, etc).

Theory into Practical…

An example...

The premise: under-rated (over-priced) favourites … we know that overall 30% of favourites win, so

let’s try to find a system which is profitable and has short losing runs due to playing at the top end of the market…

Let’s head on over to Adrian Massey’s site…

The ‘Forgotten Favourites’ System

- Favourite or Joint Favourite (UK flat racing only) - Sellers, Claimers and Amateur Rider races only - Class 5 and 6 races only

1,038 winners from 2,780 runners (37.3% SR), and a profit of 288 points (110.4% ROI)

[also a profit of 81.9 points at Industry SP]

AND… A LOT OF FUN!

Questions?

Thanks a lot for ‘tuning in’ to my very first webinar.

I’d be happy to try to answer your questions now…

{I think I’m supposed to sell you something here, but rather embarrassingly I don’t have anything on offer! How about you just head on over to check out

my website instead?}

Matt Bisognowww.geegeez.co.uk