how the oil and gas industry effects norwegian politics?

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Energy shaping your government How does energy effect the Political System in Norway?

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Agenda

• Understanding of the political system (from the inside)– The political situation

• Understanding of the political logic– The reflexivity of politics

• How the Norwegian energy sector in different ways influence the political situation in Norway?

• Conclusions

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THE POLITICAL SYSTEMEvery political strategy need to start with a deep understanding of

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The fundamental basics

• Always more need than recourses

• Battle between interest for the limited resources available

• Economics is the fundament for politics

• The more money you get, the more political you become

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Income

Employer- and sosial security tax

VAT

Income from the Petroleumum sector

Taxes on income and wealth

Other income

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Expenses

Transfers to municipalities and counties

Health sector

Payroll and operating expenses to the state

Payments to social security

Other expenses

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The challenge for Norwegian economy the next years

• Government debt is increasing rapidly in Europe and USA

• Reductions in public spending

• Possibility for reduced economic growth

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Demographics and future income from the petroleum fund

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Majority of the population has been outside the private sector since 1980

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Voting behavior in relation to private and public sector

47,144,6

27,8

11,513,5

28

13,7

8,6

23,4

5,47,8

3,9 5,5

8,7

5,6

10,2 10,5

4,3 4,64,5

4,8

05

1015

20253035

404550

Ap FrP H KrF SP SV V

Stat

Kommune

Privat

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Series1 64 11 11

30 10 2 40

Ap SV SP H KrF V FrP

Polarization of Norwegian politics

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THE REFLEXIVITY OF POLITICS

”We need to do something, this is something, therefore we must do it”(Yes Primeminister, BBC)

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What is the reflexivity politics?• Democratic politics has always been a reflection of the public majority's perception

• Media has in the information age the power to interpret the perception of reality, and trough that the power to steer the policy development. Media replaces class, family and culture as reference for interpretation.

• The reflexive effects between media, public and politics becomes deciding for the policy development.

Public

Politics

Media

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• Politics is developed in a reflexive space – involving the public, the economy and execution of authority:

– The public governs policy development• Public focus on weak/wrongful execution of power results in

demands for a new policy – demands for action• Politics becomes a reflection of how economic, legal,

bureaucratic and political power is executed and interpreted among the public

• The higher the symbolic value, the stronger the political repercussions

Politics is shaped in a room of reflexivity

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Sir Humphrey: Something must be done!

* syllogism (Greek), A type of logical argument first studied by Aristotle, in which one proposition (the conclusion) is inferred from two others (the premises) of a certain form. In a valid syllogism, the proposition follows as a logical conclusion from the premises.

Sir Humphreys political syllogism*:

1. Something must be done2. This is something3. Therefore we must do it

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Consequence:

– There are only 22 percent of the members of Parliament who think it is the political system who sets the political agenda. 71 percent think it is the journalists and media who control the public debate.

– As much as 67 percent of the representatives answers that the media has great or some influence when they are going to decide in a political case.

– Four percent of the representatives think it is economic interests which often set the agenda, one present think it is NGOs

(Survey by Respons April 2009)

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Political messaging is about…

RELEVANCE

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Has the last 40 years generated over 9000 billion to our GNP

4576 billion in income to the state since 1971.

Today sector stands for 28 percent of the yearly income to the state – 313 billion in 2011

It is invested over 3000 billion in this sector the last 40 years.

Over 200 000 persons in 424 of 430 communes is directly or indirectly employed by the sector.

The value of the petroleumfund is now over 3000 billion

Remaining resources is calculated to 8,6 billion Sm3 o.e. or 2/3 of the total resources on the Norwegian shelf. Representing values of over 4000 billion.

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Strategic communications: Define the debate

What separates good communicators from the mediocre is a conscious awareness of their own linguistic universe which enables them to define debates

Cognitive linguistics seeks to understand the nature of language, how we use it, and why we are convinced, by exploring the unconscious.

“Framing is about getting a language that fits your worldview. It is not just language. The ideas are primary – and the language carries those ideas, evokes those ideas.” (George Lakoff )

George LakoffProfessor i lingvistikk UC Berkeley

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Etho

s

Pathos

Logos

Values: How do I feel about it?

Subjective advantages: What does this mean

for me?

Functional meaning: How does it work?

Function: What is it?

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ENERGY AND POLITICSHow the Norwegian energy sector is influencing Norwegian politics

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First question:

Name one big political issue the Norwegian petroleum sector has lost

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The ethos of the Energy sector”We finance the welfare state”

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The pathos of the Energy sector”We have created the welfare you enjoy in the best country to live in”

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We deliver energy to the world