how can we make better decisions?

How can we make better decisions?

Question # 1

To what extent do you have healthy habits?

If you make a habit of eating salad for lunch every day, you can save your decision-making energy for other things.

https://hbr.org/2015/11/3-timeless-rules-for-making-tough-decisions

Example

Question # 2

When do you make a decision?

Over the course of a regular day, we become increasingly tired. Thereby, the quality of our decisions is reduced.

In other words, do not make important decisions late in the day.

https://hbr.org/2016/02/dont-make-important-decisions-late-in-the-day

Question # 3

How often do youset a deadline?

Exercise for you

Pick a decision you have been postponing.

Give yourself 3 minutes. Then make the decision.

https://hbr.org/2015/11/3-timeless-rules-for-making-tough-decisions

Question # 4

How often do youuse the if-then rule?

Let’s say someone constantly interrupts you, andyou are not sure how to respond.

Try the if-then ruleif the person interrupts me 2 times in a conversation,then I will say something.

https://hbr.org/2015/11/3-timeless-rules-for-making-tough-decisions

Question # 5

How good are you atusing statistical facts?

“I don't think smoking is that bad because my Uncle Arthur smoked 20 cigarettes a day and he lived till he was 92.”

The story of Uncle Arthur is available and memorable – but it

is highly unrepresentative of smokers as a whole.

http://voices.yahoo.com/the-availability-error-trap-6892686.html?cat=3

Example # 1

http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rationalhttp://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/31/how-scared-should-we-be/http://www.livescience.com/3780-odds-dying.htmlLifetime risk is calculated by dividing population by the number of deaths per year, divided by the life expectancy in years of a person.

Lifetime risk of dying in a car accident1:84.

Lifetime risk of dying in a plane crashBetween 1:5,000 and 1:20,000.

Example # 2

Question # 6

When you know you should stop, why do you continue?

When you know you should not eat product # 2, how often do you eat it because you bought 2 products for the price of 1?

http://www.lifehack.org/articles/communication/how-the-sunk-cost-fallacy-makes-you-act-stupid.html

Example

Try to force yourself to live with the consequences of your habit for a whole week.

ExampleIf you know you're going to eat chocolate every day for a week as opposed to eating chocolate only on weekends, it's harder to say “it's not so bad just this once.”

http://io9.com/current-moment-bias-is-my-worst-one-im-a-terrible-proc-264008358

Question # 7

Although you know you should change, why don’t you?

Example

Although you know you want to vote for someone else than the person you voted for last time, why do you vote for the same?

http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rational

Further inspiration

https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Reasons-why-people-resist-change-1453736

Question # 8

How often do you get information from

independent sources?

When people hear each other make estimates, the 1st person influences the 2nd person who influences the 3rd person etc.

However, when people estimate independently, for example how many coins there are in a jar, the accuracy of the judgment rises with the number of estimates, when they are averaged.

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/strategic_decisions_when_can_you_trust_your_gut

Question # 9

How often do you listen to people you do not agree with?

http://io9.com/5974468/the-most-common-cognitive-biases-that-prevent-you-from-being-rationalhttp://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/are-you-ready-to-decide

We love to agree with people who agree with us.

When you need to make a decision, how often do you listen to / learn from people who disagree with you / have a different opinion than you have?

Degree to which decisionproposals have been challenged against over-optimism by people who do not agree with each other

Use brainstorming techniques to create

more ideas.Make decision.

Use 6 thinking hats method.

Number of differentpoints of view considered

http://www.mckinsey.com/Insights/Strategy/Are_you_ready_to_decide

Further inspiration

https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Six-thinking-hats-1455136

Question # 10

How often do you listento people you do not know?

Human ethnocentrism, the tendency to view one's group as very important and better than other groups,

creates intergroup bias that fuels prejudice, xenophobia, and intergroup violence.

http://www.pnas.org/content/108/4/1262

Further inspiration

https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/Listening-tips-1485898

Question # 11

How often do youask a leader to decide?

Leader’s choice is usually the fastest approach, so it is the most appropriate in a crisis.

https://hbr.org/2015/03/a-checklist-for-planning-your-next-big-meeting

Question # 12

How often do youthink ahead and look back?

We are now at the start of our project. Please imagine that we are at the end of the project, and that we took the wrong decisions on the way.

During the next 2 minutes, please write down, each one of you, which decisions were wrong, and why you think we took these wrong decisions.

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/strategy/strategic_decisions_when_can_you_trust_your_guthttp://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/are-you-ready-to-decide

The premortem exercise

Further inspiration

https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product/How-can-we-understand-the-problem-1531110

Question # 13

How often do you ask people to vote?

A majority vote allows every voice to be heard and is generally viewed as fair.

https://hbr.org/2015/03/a-checklist-for-planning-your-next-big-meeting

Be aware that it may be difficult for some people to declare their opinion publicly.

https://hbr.org/2015/03/a-checklist-for-planning-your-next-big-meeting

Question # 14

How often do you move, when people silently agree?

Consent based decision making can be made when team members, who are present, do not object.

http://www.reinventingorganizationswiki.com/Decision_Making

In a blog posting or in a tweet, lay out your best

plan and write “unless I hear differentlyby close of play tomorrow I will go ahead with this.”

http://www.destination-innovation.com/articles/?p=1766

Example # 1

A person in a couple / team / group summarizes a dialogue and concludes.

When the other person / persons show consent by saying nothing and/or nodding, the couple / team / group has made a decision.

http://fac-vid.squarespace.com/bedre-moeder/Ravn%20-%20Bedre%20mder%20gennem%20facilitering.pdf p. 9.

Example # 2

Question # 15

How often do you seek advice before you make a decision?

How does the advice-process work?

Step # 1A person notices a problem or opportunity and thinks about a decision to take to solve the problem / pursue the opportunity.

Step # 2The person seeks advice from1. people who will be meaningfully affected by the decision, and/or2. people with expertise in the matter.

Step # 3Taking all advice he / she has received into consideration, the decision maker makes a decision and informs the people who have given advice.

http://www.reinventingorganizationswiki.com/Decision_Making

5 benefits of the advice process

# 1: CommunityPeople, who are asked for advice, are involved / included. They learn and feel needed.

# 2: HumilityThe decision maker, who asks for advice, and the adviser are pushed into a closer relationship.

# 3: LearningMaking decisions is on the job education. No other form of education or training can match this real-time experience.

# 4: Better decisionsBecause the decision maker has to live with the consequences oft the decision, the quality of the decision will be high.

# 5: FunThe advice process stimulates initiative and creativity, which are enhanced by the wisdom from knowledgeable people elsewhere in the organization.

http://www.reinventingorganizationswiki.com/Decision_Making