housing and labor market trends: washington · 2013. 5. 26. · source: federal housing finance...

HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS: WASHINGTON

Community Development Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

June 2012

National Trends

Composition of distressed sales by geography

12% 13%

23%

12% 15% 9%

17% 10%

17%

6%

10% 15%

13%

14% 14%

21%

16%

12%

13%

11%

35% 26%

18%

24% 20% 18% 14%

17% 5%

16%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Short Sale

Move-In Ready REO

Damaged REO

Proportion of Distressed Property Transactions—April 2012

Perc

ent o

f To

tal T

rans

actio

ns

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2012

Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over investor purchases of distressed properties

18%

36% 32%

52% 22%

43%

36%

34% 61%

21%

33%

14%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Damaged REO

Move-In Ready REO

Short Sale Non-Distressed

Investor

First-Time Homebuyer

Current Homeowner

Perc

ent

of P

rope

rty T

ype

Who Is Buying Properties?─April 2012

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2012

Financing for home purchases

31%

10%

78% 19%

53%

3%

19%

13%

4%

5%

7%

26% 17% 15%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Current Homeowners First-Time Homebuyers Investors

All Other Financing

VA

Fannie/Freddie

FHA

Cash

Perc

ent

of B

uyer

-Sid

e Tr

ansa

ctio

ns

Financing for Homebuyers─April 2012

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions April 2012

Washington Trends

Unemployment rate in Washington continues to mirror national trend

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

0

4

8

12

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Recession

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

(%) United States

Washington

Washington’s house values at 2005 levels FH

FA H

ouse

Pric

e In

dex

2000

=10

0

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

90

110

130

150

170

190

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000=100, quarterly)

United States

Washington

House prices at metropolitan level

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)

FHFA

Hou

se P

rice

Inde

x 20

00=

100

90

130

170

210

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

FHFA House Price Index (formerly OFHEO) (2000=100, quarterly)

Tacoma

Seattle Spokane

Yakima

Numbers of WA delinquent mortgages fell in Q1 2012 while loans in foreclosure rose slightly

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey

0

40,000

80,000

120,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Num

ber o

f M

ortg

ages

Loans in Foreclosure All Mortgages Past Due

Washington’s consumer debt delinquency rate down from 2010 peak

0%

4%

8%

12%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumer Debt Delinquency Rate

U.S.

Washington

Note: Delinquency status of 90+ days past due or worse. Excludes first mortgage. Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel

Seattle rents up, vacancies down

0%

3%

6%

9%

$950

$1,000

$1,050

$1,100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Vacancy Rate A

skin

g Re

nt

Asking Rent and Vacancy Rate in Seattle Quarterly

Asking Rent Vacancy Rate

Source: Reis, Inc. Asking rent is calculated by first determining the average rent for each unit size, and then calculating a weighted average based on the number of units in each size category.

Washington Foreclosure Data Maps

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2012

Washington Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2012

Washington Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Seattle Area Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures April 2012

Seattle Area Data Maps

Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations

Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures April 2012

Conclusions

For More Information: FRBSF Community Development Website

Links to other resources and research on foreclosure trends and mitigation strategies

All publications, presentations available on our website

Conference materials also posted shortly after events

http://www.frbsf.org/community/