heat pumps in europe martin forsén president ehpa martin forsén sulpu 2015-12-01

HEAT PUMPS IN EUROPE

Martin ForsénPresident EHPA

Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01

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heat pump sales in Europeby energy source

Trend #1: air source

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sanitary hot water heat pumpsTrend #2: hot water

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heat pump sales 2014by category

5

market performance = sales per 1000 households

Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01

Ireland Time

Demand

Introduction Growth Profit Decline

UK

Sweden

FranceGermanyFinlandAustria

Product life cycle curve

Switzerland

Market introduction

• Few • Early adopters• Engineers• Expensive products• Poor awareness

Customers

• Few SMEs*• Few retailers/installers • Poor profit• Poor competition• Lack of technical know how

Manufacturers

*SME small and medium size enterprise

Required activities from industry

• Forming of industry association • Development of technical standards• Training of installers• R&D

Industry infrastrurcture

• Strategic allies (electric utilities) • Dissemination of information • Technology procurement program• Subsidy schemes

Marketing activites

Attack

Ireland Time

Demand

Introduction Growth Profit Decline

Trigger factor!

Market introduction

UK

• Subsidy scheme• Technology procurement program• Legislation

Growth

• Growing numbers of customers• Affordable to a wider group• Risk of poor quality• Improved awareness

Customers

• Large number• Growing number of retailers/installers • Improving profit• Competition moving from poor to high• R&D• Improving technical know how

Manufacturers

• Development of product quality schemes • Development of technical standards• Monitoring of legislation and policies• Lobbying

Industry infrastructure

• Advertisement• Enhancing the sales channels• Dissemination of information

Marketing activites

Required activities from industry

Expansion

Time

Demand

Introduction Growth Profit Decline

France

Growth• Subsidy scheme in existence• Strong support from electric utility• Product quality label in existence• Training scheme in existence• Accredited test laboratory• Several national producers

Profit/Maturity

• Levelling out• Laggards and new customer groups• Affordable to a wider group• Common knowledge

Customers

• Decreasing number• High competition• Improving relations with retailers/installers • Good profit• R&D

Manufacturers

• Development of product quality schemes • Development of technical standards• Monitoring of legislation and policies• Lobbying

Industry infrastructure

• Building stronger brand names• Enhancing the sales channels• Dissemination of information

Marketing activites

Required activities from industry

Consolidation

Time

Demand

Introduction Growth Profit Decline

Switzerland

• Number of manufacturers has decreased• Product quality label in existence• Training scheme in existence• Accredited test laboratory• Strong industry association

Profit/Maturity

Maturity/Decline

• Laggards and new customer groups• 2:nd generation of customers• Common knowledge

Customers

• High competition• Improving relations with retailers/installers • Decreasing profit• Niche products added values• R&D

Manufacturers

• Development of product quality schemes • Development of technical standards• Monitoring of legislation and policies• Lobbying

Industry infrastructure

• Building stronger brand names• Enhancing the sales channels• Dissemination of information• Service and maintenance

Marketing activites

Required activities from industry

Innovation

Time

Demand

Introduction Growth Profit Decline

Sweden

• Niche products• New market sectors• New customer groups• Replacement market

Maturity/Decline

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1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Heat pump sales in Sweden

Ground source, Exhaust air and Air to Water (excluding Air to air)

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19461949

19521955

19581961

19641967

19701973

19761979

19821985

19881991

19941997

20002003

20062009

20120

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

Use of heating oil in Sweden [m3]

- 94 %!!!!!

Consequences of the use of heat pumps in Sweden

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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Use of electricity for heating purposes in Sweden [TWh]

29% !!!!

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Source: Naturvårdsverket

GHG-Emissions related to energy use in buildings

- 84 %!!!

190519101915192019251930193519401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520000

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

10

00

-to

ns

CO

2-e

qu

iva

len

ts

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- actual sales 2014

market potentialsif Sweden was everywhere

total: 4.9 mio

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price ratio: electricity / gas - ordered

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What the future will bring

Energy smartness

• Smart grids• Smart thermal grids• Smart homes• Smart appliances

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Domestic energy storage

Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01

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Computer heating

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Heat is generated by computationElectricity costs refunded to the host

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New Materials

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Graphene

• 100 times stronger than steel• 10 times higher thermal conductivity

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Vision

Heat pumps the number oneheating technology!

Realised already in; Sweden, Finland, Norway,

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Thank you for the attention

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Heat pumpification of the society

Martin Forsén SULPU 2015-12-01

29 Martin Forsén 17-11-2015

Elpannor Direk-tverkande el

Oljepannor Äldre värmepump

Ved Pellets Fjärrvärme Nyproduk-tion

Gas Annat

2010 0.209872228895927

0.208362454952495

0.269848203560118

0.0661160860543846

0.0886726001965709

0.0621164136726002

0.0202741072403626

0.0368461286447526

0.0187534126897456

0.0191383640930436

2011 0.20045806906272

0.229457364341085

0.199545454545455

0.0869626497533474

0.0884883720930233

0.0785764622973925

0.0353735024665257

0.04276955602537

0.0182980972515856

0.0200704721634954

2012 0.213827601002687

0.205855784648043

0.172835602929774

0.109949338693043

0.114025579067019

0.0946003929450553

0.0233772197255406

0.0495697929134391

0.0100607484022493

0.00589793967314799

2013 0.21720399900851

0.209368751549202

0.183970090060315

0.115677104850037

0.109618276460382

0.0783219036602495

0.038793687515492

0.0352879451375692

0.00744691398826737

0.00431132776997438

2015 0.181556264114802

0.218305001911533

0.130658237526752

0.169783582883696

0.113623912692188

0.0860465941203596

0.0362876049865404

0.045360491559693

0.00817032748312135

0.0102079827213142

2.5%

7.5%

12.5%

17.5%

22.5%

27.5%

Vilken typ av värmesystem har de värmepumpar ni installerat under det senaste året procentuellt sett ersatt eller komplet-

terat?

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split of heat pump sales 2010:by type

H-air/water: 14%

H-ground/water: 14%

Reversible air-air w/heating: 60%

Reversible other: 6%

Sanitary hot water: 4%

Exhaust air: 3%

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split of heat pump sales 2014:by type

H-air/water: 20%

H-ground/water: 11%

Reversible air-air w/heating: 48%

Reversible other: 6%

Sanitary hot water: 14%

Exhaust air: 2%