growth hacking and the bandit problem

GROWTH HACKING AND

THE BANDIT PROBLEM

Starring Noel Welsh A Production

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WHAT DO

GROWTH HACKERS DO?

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GROW!Friday, 8 February 2013

Metric(sign-ups, revenue, etc)

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Make this happen

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HOW?Friday, 8 February 2013

Build

MeasureLearn

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Build

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Build

Measure

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Build

MeasureLearn

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FASTER IS BETTER

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HOWDO WE MEASURE &

LEARN?

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A/BFriday, 8 February 2013

MeasureBuild Learn

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Build

MeasureLearn

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Build

Measure/Learn

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Build Measure / Learn

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THE BANDIT PROBLEM(EST 1952 ... OR 1933)

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k arms (or variants)

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Select a variant

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Receive a reward

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REPEAT

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MAXIMISE TOTAL REWARD

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HOW?Friday, 8 February 2013

DISPLAY VARIANT WITH

HIGHEST AVERAGE REWARD

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Good Variant Bad Variant

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Good Variant Bad Variant

Views: 1Reward: 0Average: 0

Friday, 8 February 2013

Good Variant Bad Variant

Views: 1Reward: 0Average: 0

Views: 1Reward: 1Average: 1

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OOPS!Friday, 8 February 2013

Good Variant Bad Variant

Views: 1Reward: 0Average: 0

Views: 1Reward: 1Average: 1

WILL NEVER TRY THE

GOOD VARIANT AGAIN!

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BALANCE EXPLOIT

AND EXPLORE

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EXPLOITTRY THE VARIANT THAT HAS WORKED BEST IN

THE PAST

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EXPLORE TRY OTHER VARIANTS

TO SEE IF THEY’RE BETTER

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E-GREEDYFriday, 8 February 2013

10% EXPLORE

90% EXPLOITDon’t like 10% and 90%? Change it.

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MORE INTRICATE BALANCING IS POSSIBLE.

SEE UCB-1, THOMPSON SAMPLING, etc.

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DOES IT

WORK?

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REAL WORLD

CONSIDERATIONS

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WORKFLOW

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DEFINING

REWARDS

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STABLE PREFERENCES

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THANK YOU!NOW GO FORTH AND

ENGAGE IN BANDITRY

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CREDITSPhotos and artwork by the following people were used in

this presentation:

Moyan Brenn http://www.flickr.com/photos/aigle_dore/Suicine http://www.flickr.com/photos/bigmikeyeah

ankakay http://www.flickr.com/photos/ankakay/Cdr Aitch http://www.flickr.com/people/hjsouthgate/

StJost http://stjost.deviantart.com/

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