green energy from heat - themo electric generation (teg)

Green Energy from HeatApplying Thermo Electric Generation (TEG)

Jamie Yang, 2009jamietpe@msn.com

Linkedin Profile

Driving Forces System Block TEG Applications Business Model Market Analysis and Potentiality Strategy (Operation and

Manufacturing) Appendix

Outline

Fuel is limited and price high Alternative energy is on trend Too much waste heat Earth is getting hot Montreal sunset regulation on Freon Kyoto Protocol

Driving Forces

Thermo Electric Generation - TEG TEG Hot-Side : be attached to heat sources TEG Cold-Side : liquid cooling system

System Function Block

Heat A

bso

rber

TEGHeat

Liquid

Coolin

g

Balance and Charger

AC

Pow

er

DC

Pow

er

Function Block Diagram

Heat Sources Inve

rter

Battery Array

Waste Heat Recycling Geothermal Application Roof-top Solar Heat Application

TEG Applications

Potential Customers

Device Makers- Steel facility maker- Arc furnace maker- Boiler/Steam Turbine maker

System Installer- Incinerator Installer- Geothermal Power Plant Installer- Solar PV and CPV System Installer

Business Model

Raw Material

Powder Metallurgy

… Module Assembly

Covered by TEG module Maker

A

B System Design

(Charger/Battery/Inverter) Construction & Installation

A Mount TEG modules on Specific Devices

Covered by Device Maker

B

Covered by System Integrator

Business Model

Waste Heat Recycling Geothermal Electricity Solar PV TEG Prospective Life Cycle System Integrator Key success factor Entry barrier SWOT 4P

Market Analysis and Potentiality

Market Analysis and Potentiality – Waste Heat Recycling

• Incinerator• Plant Waste Heat * not counted in

Global Waste Incineration Capacity

Type Year 1997 2007 2008 2013

Municipal 160 200 210 240

Industrial*1 800 1000 1050 1200

TEG Q’ty *2

2008 2013

100 M sets

500 M sets

Unit : Million ton per year

Source : The Worldwide Market for Waste Incineration Plants, ecoprog 2008 Note : *1. Industrial number was estimated by 5x of municipal quantity *2. The detailed estimation for TEG quantity, please refer to appendix

Source : IGA (International Geothermal Association) Electricity Statistic, 2008See Appendix for detail

Market Analysis and Potentiality – Geothermal Electricity

Type Year

2005 2010

MWe *2 9,064 12,100

TEG Q’ty *1

2010

120 M pcs/year

Unit : MWe per year

Source : The Worldwide Installed Geothermal Power Plant Capacity, IGA 2008 (International Geothermal Association)

Note : 1. The detailed estimation for TEG quantity, please refer to appendix 2. MWe: Mega Watt of Electricity

* see appendix

Market Analysis and Potentiality – Geothermal Electricity

Global Solar PV Installation/Production :Alternative Energy 2003 2007 2017 (est.)

Solar PV Installations (MW) 620 2,821 22,760

Wind Power Installed (MW) 8000 20,060 75,781

Source: Clean Edge, Inc., 2008

TAM CAGR 23% from 2007 to 2017

Revenue CAGR 12.6% from 2007 to 2017

Market Analysis and Potentiality – Solar PV

Global solar PV installations and TEG projections

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PV Installations – Megawatts (MW)

1,086 1,460 1,744 2,826 3,674 4,776 5,970 7,462 9,328

Y/Y Change 82% 34% 19% 62% 30% 30% 25% 25% 25%

PV Installations – KM2 ,(12.7M2/KW)

13,792 18,542 22,149 35,890 46,657 60,654 75,818 94,773 118,466

Solar TEG Equivalent – KM2 ,(2M2/KW)*

2,172 2,920 3,488 5,652 7,348 9,552 11,940 14,925 18,656

Source: 2007 solar market review, Solarbuzz, Merrill LynchNote : please refer to appendix for the output power of TEG

Year 2008 SPV market size projection will be 3.674 GW, which is equal to TEG as below formula :

7,348Km2 * 100 pcs/m2 = 734 million pcs per year

Market Analysis and Potentiality – Solar PV

Geothermal Generation

Thermal-Electric Market

600M

120M 735M

Annum Quantity(pcs)

Waste Heat IncineratorIndustrial

Solar HeatRoof-top

Power Plant

Market Analysis and Potentiality – TEG Prospective

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Develo

pm

en

t Intr

od

ucti

on G

row

th M

atu

rit

y Declin

e

Sale

s

2014 2015

Rejuvenation

Maintain Stable

Decline or Exit

•Clone study & copy tech

•Clone launch

•Clone getting strong

•Many clone competing

•Paradigm Shift–Innovation recipe–New Technology

•Expand existing business•New Application add in

Market Analysis and Potentiality – Life Cycle

– Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. – NKK, – Nippon Steel Corp., – Takuma Co., Ltd., – Hitachi Zosen Corp., – Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd., – Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy

Industries Co., Ltd., – Mitsui Engineering and

Shipbuilding Co., Ltd., – Kubota Corp., – Ebara Corp., – Sumitomo Heavy Industries, Ltd.,

and – Kobe Steel, Ltd.

Japan

– Veolia Environmental Services, France

– Incinco Limited, UK– ATLAS INCINERATORS A/S, Denmark– Austrian Energy & Environment

Group– Todaysure Projects Limited, UK– KAS Engineering Solutions Ltd. ,

Scoltland – Standardkessel GmbH, Germany– AVA Abfallverbrennungsanlage

Nordweststadt GmbH, Germany

Rest of World

Market Analysis and Potentiality – Waste Heat System Integrators

Veolia Environmental Service Carrier Combustion Associates Capstone Micro Turbine Electra Therm Heat Technology Products Sidel Systems U.S.A., Western Combustion Engineering …

Market Analysis and Potentiality – Waste Heat System Integrators

Calpine Corp. Chevron Corp. AES Corp. Western GeoPower Corp. Raser Technology Inc. Nevada Geothermal Power Inc. Polaris Geothermal Inc. U.S. Geothermal Inc. Grace Geothermal, Ormat Technologies,

Inc., …

Market Analysis and Potentiality – Geothermal System Integrators

Sekisui Chemical Solon AG Fuer Solartecknik Conergy AG Aleo Solar AG Solar-Fabrik AG SAG Solarstrom AG Solartron PCL …

Market Analysis and Potentiality – Solar PV System Integrators

Technology- Leading-edge technology- Full patent coverage- Reverse engineering prevention

Operation- Right selected partner- Good FAE support- Efficiency logistics

Financial- Well financial control and support

Market Analysis and Potentiality – Key Success Factors

Advanced technology Time to market Manufacturing know-how Customer service

Market Analysis and Potentiality – Entry Barriers

Strength•Sophisticated thermal technology•Market leader in TEG performance•Provide a green way on electricity generation•Customer-service driven management team

Weakness•Weak cash flow•Small operation scale•Inadequate mentality and culture•No enough customer reference site

Opportunity•Limit of Petroleum resource•Renewable energy is on trend•Governments compensate electricity and installation fee

•No big guy in TEG implementations of geothermal power plants

•Combine solar PV become better performance•Much waste heat to be recovered

Threat•Followers/clones will be coming soon•Government is getting to reduce SPV installation subsidy

•Solar PV is proven, dominating the market•Need re-educate market and government

Market Analysis and Potentiality – SWOT

Price•10%-30% higher•Cost down by vertical/upstream integration

Product•Best of Cost/price performance•Patent/IP •Module business majority•System offering minority

Place•Vertical market, 80%•Horizontal channel, 20%•Focus on SI channel

Promotion•Road show•Attend professional exhibitions•Web-site marketing•FAE-Driven

Market Analysis and Potentiality – 4P

Manufacturing Plan Fulfillment and Logistics

Strategy

Out Sourcing,SubcontractingManagement

FactoryBuild Up

AsiaFactoryBuild Up

Global

Manufacturing

Operation

Mfg SiteMirroring

(Near customer)

Strategy- Manufacturing Plan

items W-9 W-8 W-7 W-6 W-5 W-4 W-3 W-2 W-1 W0

Market demand

Distribution W/H

Geo W/H

materials all-part-in

sea freight lead time

air freight lead time

PCB production

Ore mining mill

TEG Overall Material Planning Flow

The longest lead time component

Dis

trib

uti

on

manufacturing

Mate

rial pla

nnin

g a

nd

manufa

cturi

ng

Strategy - Fulfillment & Logistics

Suppliers

Procurement

Logistics

Plants

Manufacturing Logistics

DistributionSales

Logistics

Syste

m In

teg

rato

r

En

d C

usto

mer

Geo Site

Recycling

Center

Plant Site

Recycling

•Information Flow•Goods Flow•Financial Flow

Pushed Logistics

Pulled Logistics

Strategy - Fulfillment & Logistics

TEG Market Size Calculation on Global Waste Incineration Capacity

Geothermal Installed Generating Capacity TEG Output Power Projection TEG Market Size Calculation on Geothermal

Electricity System Integrators - Waste Heat Potentiality System Integrators – Geothermal Potentiality System Integrators – Solar PV Potentiality

Appendix

• Global waste incineration was set on 220 millions tones per year for next 5 year (Mg equal to one ton)

• Set 220K Mg/a in average per plant• 220M Mg/(220Mg/a) = 1,000 plants worldwide• If each plant need 1,000m2 for waste heat recycle, each m2 will

consume 100 pieces of 10cm2 TEG; TEG TAM = 1,000x1,000*100 = 100 Million pieces

Set 220K Mg/a in average per plant

AppendixTEG Market Size Calculation on Global Waste Incineration Capacity

AppendixGeothermal Installed Generating Capacity

Source from: ORRA Lab Taiwan

Hot Side

Cold Side

ΔT V AW=VA /0.01M

2

W=VA /1M2 PFC EfficiencyOutput

(W)

30°C 29°C 1°C 0.05 0.02 0.0010 0.100 0.95 0.8 0.076

70°C 30°C 40°C 0.97 0.48 0.4656 46.56 0.95 0.8 35.38

110°C 32°C 78°C 1.78 0.93 1.6554 165.54 0.95 0.8 125.81

150°C 35°C 115°C 2.49 1.31 3.2619 326.19 0.95 0.8 247.90

190°C 39°C 151°C 3.17 1.67 5.2939 529.39 0.95 0.8 402.33

230°C 43°C 187°C 3.82 2.06 7.8692 786.92 0.95 0.8 598.05

AppendixTEG Output Power Projection

AppendixTEG Market Size Calculation on Geothermal Electricity

System Integrator – Waste Heat Recycling Power Generation :

System Integrator Field Country/Territory

Veolia Environmental Service

•World 2nd largest waste management and environmental services company.

•Head quarter in France•Worldwide service

Combustion Association

•Heat Recovery Steam Generation (HRSG) that enables the use of waste heat for productive purposes in combined heat and power applications. meet California AB 29X and SB5X Peak Load Reduction Program requirements.

•Head quarter in USA•Worldwide service

Capstone Micro Turbine

•CR65 – the “R” for renewable – will be available with an optional stainless steel integrated heat exchanger. 

•Head quarter in USA•Worldwide service

Electra Therm

• Earn “Best of Show” honor by GEA Trade Show 2007.  • Nevada, USA

AppendixSystem Integrators - Waste Heat Potentiality

System Integrator – Geothermal Power Generation:

System Integrator Field Country/Territory

Calpine Corp.

• Owns the Geyers, the world largest geothermal power field; 725MWe in Sonoma/Lake county, CA. Operates 19 geothermal plants;

•Head quarter in USA•Worldwide service

Chevron Corp.

• the world’s largest private producer of geothermal energy. Owns Indonesia Darajat, Gunung Salak, and Philippine Tiwi, Mak-Ban power plants. Total 1,273MWe.

•Head quarter in USA•Worldwide service

AES Corp.

•Owns Philippine Zambals, 600MWe; Costa Rica 27.5MW •Head quarter in USA•Worldwide service

Western GeoPower Corp.

•Owns 35MWe near The Geyers, 100MWe South Meager plants. •Head quarter in Canada•Worldwide service

AppendixSystem Integrators – Geothermal Potentiality

System Integrator – Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation:

System Integrator Field Country/Territory

Sekisue Chemical

• Cumulated 60,000 houses (half of all new build) equipped solar photovoltaic power generation system;

•Head quarter in Japan• 200 companies WW

Solon AG Fuer Solartechnik

• SOLON is one of Europe's leading manufacturers of solar modules and suppliers of photovoltaic systems for large-scale solar power plants. 85MW have been contracted worldwide.

•Head quarter in Germany•Worldwide services

Aleo Solar AG

•Total capacity up-to-date is 100MW.•Founding of the joint venture avim solar with the Chinese Sunvim Group Co. Ltd.

•Head quarter in Germany•Worldwide service

Conergy AG

•Main products: Photovoltaic and wind energy.•Largest photovoltaic plant in Asia: SunTechnics commissioned to build a 20 MW solar power plant in in South Korea.•SunTechnics GmbH will be integrated into Conergy by end of 2008

•Head quarter in Germany•Worldwide service

Appendix System Integrators – Solar PV Potentiality