graphiques sur l’arabie saoudite, ngl & delphi · 5 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1930...
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Jean Laherrere Réunion ASPO France 19 juin 2019 Graphiques sur l’Arabie Saoudite, NGL & Delphi
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Mb/
d
year
Saudi Arabia oil data from Sama.govcrude prodcrude exporto&g consrefined prodoil consrefined exportNGL prod
Jean Laherrere May 2019
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b/t
year
Saudi Arabia oil production b/t from different sources
b/t BPb/t crude+NGL/Enerdatab/t crude OPEC/Enerdata
Jean Laherrere May 2019
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Saudi Arabia remaining oil reserves 2P 2011 backdated2P 2004 backdatedOPEC/ABS 1P SA1P WO Saudi Arabia1P OGJ Saudi Arabia1P OGJ Neutral ZoneKSA crude+condensateultimate HLDGMN Crude+NGLRystad 2016 2PCRNS 1P crudeDGMN 1P CrudeRystad 2016 1P
Jean Laherrere Ap 2019
OPEC quota fight +90 Gb SA
OPEC quota fight+0 Gb NZ
IHS increase in 2P from 2004 to 2011+90 Gb SA
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aP/C
P%
cumulative production Gb
Saudi Arabia HL of crude oil production 1937-2018
aP/CP%
1998-2018
Jean Laherrere April 2019
Rystad 2PCX=212 GbCP 2015 = 142 Gbultimate = 354 Gb
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Gb
year
Saudi Arabia cumulative oil discovery & production
CP+1P OPECcum disc 2P 2011cum disc 2P 2004HLU = 350 GbU = 300 GbU = 250 GbCP5%cum prod crude OPECCP +1P crude DGMN
Jean Laherrere 14 April 2019
1P OGJ includes half of Neutral Zone reported separately until 2013
OPEC fight on quotas 1985-1989: +300 Gb of speculative resources Al-Huseini 2007: +90 Gb for SA
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annu
al M
b/d
year
Saudi Arabia crude oil production & forecastU = 350 Gb
U = 300 Gb
U = 250 Gb
OPEC ASB
U = 120 Gb
Ghawar
U = 350 Gb
U = 300 Gb
U = 250 Gb
CP OPEC
Jean Laherrere May2019
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-Manifa Manifa discovered in 1957 is huge (45 km x 18 km) with six reservoirs, but poor reservoirs, heavy oil and expensive development. Production (capacity 125 000 b/d) occurs from 1964 to 1984: Production resumes in 2013 with 350 wells from 27 man-made drilling islands & 13 offshore platforms, interconnected by a causeway of 41 km, for a cost over 10 G$. AR 2015 reports a production capacity of 0.9 Mb/d, but AR 2016 and 2017 does not mention Manifa anymore. Manifa is stated as a triumph of engineering!
It seems that corrosion problems occur in 2017 in the water injection. There is no data on present Manifa oil production
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-natural gas
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cum
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.m3
annu
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rod
G.m
3 =
km3
year
Saudi Arabia NG marketed production
U = 6500 km3
OPEC mark prod
WEO2010
WEO2018
U = 6500 km3
CP OPEC G.m3
Jean Laherrere May 2019
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World NGL production 17 June 2019
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b/t
density kg/m3
b/t versus density for oil products from IEA 2019
b/t6290/d
Jean Laherrere June 2019
ethane
propane
butane
naphtha
LPG
crude oil
bitumen
NGL b/t=13.8
pentanes d = 0.63b/t = 10
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b/t
°API
b/t versus °API for oil products from IEA 2019
b/t
0,0445*(°API+131.5)
Jean Laherrere June 2019
ethane
propane
butane
naphtha
LPG
crude oil
bitumen
NGL b/t=13.8
pentanes d = 0.63b/t = 10
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b
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Mb/
d
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world NGL production
U = 550 GbWEO2018WEO2017WEO2016WEO2015WEO2014world NGL synt Mb/dNGPL IEO2014NGPL EIA Mb/dU = 550 GbCP NGL Gb
Jean Laherrere May 2019
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Enquête Delphi production brut, extra-lourd, LTO & offshore profond
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Mb/
d
year
world crude oil -XH-LTO-deepwater production
EIA crude+condensate
crude-XHcrude-XH-LTO-deepdeepwater >500 m
LTOXH
Jean Laherrere 18 June 2019
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US & world LTO production forecasts from EIA & IEA
world WEO2018 NPworld WEO2017 NPworld WEO2014 NPworld pastUS AEO2019US AEO2018US WEO2018US AEO2015US AEO2013
Jean Laherrere 18 June 2019
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