governance scenarios for nation states: options and context · 2019-06-20 · introduction...
Post on 22-Jul-2020
2 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Governance Scenarios for Nation States:
Options and Context
Meelis Kitsing
Foresight Centre
Erik Terk
Tallinn University
Introduction
Adjustment of societies for dealing with future challenges dependson governance models.
Governance capacity depends on ability to take a more complexview and consider various alternatives.
The future oriented literature has emphasized the rise of global and local governance at the expense of national governance.
However, national legislatative and executive branches should notbe underestimated.
Pessimists such as Y. Dror have emphasized inability of governments to deal with strategic challenges.
While others have seen new opportunities in digital realm and networked governance.
Governance Tasks: Context A and Context B
What kind of tasks do we want to be tackled by national government?
Context A: national governance has balancing and stabilizing butperhaps secondary role. No attempts to change the developmentalmodel radically.
» The ideal of governance without government stressing theimportance of networks, partnerships and markets.
Context B: implies necessity to change radically the functioning of societies and economies.
» Motivated leaders and National governments play crucial role in what Y. Dror calls „higher order tasks“ and „large scale policies“.
E.g. Catching up with other economies or ecological transition.
Yehezkel Dror : Ideologist of the context B
4
Governance Scenarios
Scenario planning exercise:
Interaction of institutional and technological
drivers
External and internal as well as more
objective and subjective factors
A way to broaden debate and identify key
decision makig points
How to make governance more efficient,
equitable and agile?
Process and method
Methological diversity and contributionsfrom different experts:
Focus groups in June 2017
Literature review and analysis on Estonia
Scenario planning workshops in Spring2018
Presentations at various committees of Estonian Parliament, academicconferences and other venues
Idenfication of implications and trade-offsat steering committee and at committee forstate reform at the Estonian Parliament
Governance Scenarios 2030
Night Watchman State
Caretaker State
Networked GovernanceEntrepreneurial StateAd Hoc Governance
Key drivers for five scenarios
How decentralised or centralised is administration?
How important is the speed of decision-making, or
whether the priority is calculating and analytical
approach and comprehensive engagement?
How tight is budget constraint?
Ad Hoc Governance.
Governance
Centralized governance with
quick decision-making under
strict budget constraints:
• Central government increases its role
in priority areas
• Parliament’s role is modest, except in
a few areas
• Local governments fiscal autonomy
and role decreases
Night Watchman State
Governance
Centralized governance withslow and principal decision-making under strict budgetconstraints:
• Central government increases its role in some areas but overall government isbecoming more limited
• Parliament’s role is decreased, number of MPs and its budget is cut
• Local governments fiscal autonomy and role decreases and they are consolidatedwith purpose to cut costs.
Entrepreneurial State
Governance
Centralized governance withquick decision-making undergenerous budget constraints:
• Central government increases its rolein strategic areas and acts as a largecorporation
• Parliament’s role is decreased forbenefit of quick decision-making
• Local government’s fiscal autonomyand role decreases with the exceptionof two largest cities
Caretaker State
Governance
Centralized governance withanalytical and detailed decision-making under generous budgetconstraints:
• Central government increases its role in every area of life in order to take care of citizens and minimize risks for them
• Parliament’s role is modest, formallymatters for legitimacy
• Local government’s fiscal autonomy and role stays the same but formally theirimportance is emphasized
Networked Governance
Governance
Decentralized governance withanalytical decision-makingprocesses:
• Central government’s role is decreasedand decision-making is delegated
• Parliament’s role increases, participatoryaspects are encouraged
• Fiscal autonomy of local governmentswill increase and they becomefundamental in local political, economicdevelopments
Night Watchman State
Caretaker State
Networked GovernanceEntrepreneurial StateAd Hoc Governance
Conclusion• A number of factors impact the governance models:
path-dependence, International trends, experience, culture et al.
• Changing circumstances may be necessary but are notsufficient for modification of governance.
• Movement from one model to another is not necessarilya rational process.
• However, risks and uncertantities should demonstrateusefulness of different scenarios rather than ideologicalreliance on one model.
Conclusions (context B, case of radical
enviromental transition)• Caretaker scenario and probably Night Watchman scenario are not working in this
context;
• Usage of the logic of Entrapreneurial State type of Governance is limited because of lackof money and time;
• Ad Hoc Governance? But the long term strategy and continuity is needed and politicalsupport for the next steps in the process;
• Y. Dror is emphasizing the role of motivated political leaders and strong govenrment in the combination with „wider brain of Government“ and new supporting structures. How to usethe Networked Governance logic in the context B (crises, priority of higher order tasks, confrontation, window of opportunity)?
• What about the role of Parliament and local governments and maybe direct democracy in this context ?
Thank you!terkerik@tlu.ee
meelis.kitsing@riigikogu.ee
riigikogu.ee/en/foresight Foresight Centre
Foresight Centre at the Parliament of Estonia
top related