gordon chap. 5 hypotheses predictions “models”---maybe a conceptual flow chart strong inference...

Gordon Chap. 5Hypotheses

•Predictions

•“Models”---maybe a conceptual flow chart

•Strong inference

•experiments

Gordon Chap. 5: Hypotheses“It is my hypothesis that…”

Hypotheses Force you to:

•Think in terms of predictions

•Think of ways to disprove a claim (e.g., the null hypothesis)

•Makes your goals explicit

•Guides reviewers to core effort

Models: “structured abstractions”

Quantitative models

Analog models

• Organize complexity

• Point to questions/problems/hypotheses

• Organize data and results

• Present results

Experiments

• Don’t think just in terms of “laboratory experiments”

• Lab vs field

• Quant vs. qualitative

• Model experiments

“Finding Experiments”

• Natural or “Found” Experiments

• Weaker “control”

• “natural trajectory” experiment

• “natural snapshot” experiments

Booth: Chap. 5 From Problems to Sources

• Need something of a plan for sources

• Primary

• Secondary

• Tertiary

• Reliability screen

• Experts as sources

• Bibliographical trails

What you find

Avoid concluding early:

• Ouy! “Nothing new to say, there goes my project!”

• Question the results (answer may be “they’re pretty good!”)

• Do it differently

• Do it better

Chap. 6: Using SourcesRead for a Problem• Stating / Clarifying the problem (look for

weaknesses, chance to re-state, or challenge)

Read for an Argument• Use “model” arguments from similar research---

BORROW THE LOGIC! (that’s not plagiarism)

Read for Evidence• Careful, complete citation• Collect “data” from your sources; • critically assess;

Chap 7 Making Good Arguments

• claim --- reason --- evidence– Base claims on reasons, base reasons on

evidence

• Acknowledge and respond to alternatives– Answer as may questions and doubts you can

imagine (but where do you stop?)

• Avoid “inappropriate evidence” (p. 124

• Avoid “comfortable simplicity” (p. 125)

Chap. 15: Illustrations, graphs, tables

• Careful use will enhance your work.

• Conceptual flow chart / diagram

• Lists and tables

• Maps

• photos

Natural Events System

Human use System

Hurricane

Flood

Earthquake

Tsunami

wildfire

Populations

Agriculture

Settlement

Transportation

Housing

Natural Hazard Impacts Response

Prevention: modify the event

(Dams, levees, cloud seeding, etc.)

Magnitude, frequency, duration, extent

Adapt: reduce human vulnerability:

(building codes, land use regulations, etc.)

economic loss

Spread / Share the Loss: Disaster aid,

insurance

Vulnerability

Growth in the American West

• More “boom” than “bust”

The Riebsame-Travis* Scale of Climate Change Severity

*Taking its rightful place among the great hazard scales: Richter, Mercalli, Saffir-Simpson, and Fujita! Named after moi and my previous name: two names sound better than one.

Level 1: perhaps autonomous adaptation will work as performance standards are occasionally up-dated.

Level 2: Targeted adaptation to specifically-recognized climate challenges.

Level 3: Adapting to climate change as a natural hazard.

Level 4: Who knows?

The conceptual structure of the International Land Science Program

See:

GLP (2005) Science Plan and Implementation Strategy. IGBP Report No. 53/IHDP Report No. 19. IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm. 64pp.

Driving Forces

•Population Growth

•Job growth

•Per capita housing growth (households, house size)

•Low density, auto-oriented, “pastoral” suburban culture

Enabling Forces

•Transportation network

•Pro-development / growth local policies

•Flex-time, home office; retirement; and footloose businesses

Shaping Forces

•Transportation network

•Public lands

•Recreational features

•Local tax structure

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