gold mining in data mining
Post on 15-Jul-2015
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Gold Mining
in
Data Mining
By
Ahmad Kaifi
Hassan Althobaiti
Outline
Introduction
Motivation
Approach
Result
Demo (using Shinny)
Limitations
Introduction
Suppose you have a dataset that contains
gold prices from 1980 until now.
What kind of technique are you going to use?
Forecasting
Is the idea of using old information in order to
predict future information.
“Prediction is very difficult,
especially if it's about the future.”
Niels Bohr
Principles of Forecasting
Forecasts are rarely perfect
Forecasts are more accurate for grouped data than for individual items
Forecast are more accurate for shorter than longer time periods
Motivation
Since the forecasting is always wrong, our
motivation is to test all the different algorithms
available in “Forecast” package in three
different time periods based on the duration
and the trend from 1980 until now in order to
determine some algorithms that can mimic the
actual data and give more accurate results.
Approach
MASE
Results Of Duration Test
FF-1980 MASE
stlf 1.19
ses 1.26
arfima 0.78
auto.arima 1.20
FF-2007 MASE
stlf 0.30
ses 0.46
arfima 0.43
auto.arima 0.70
FF-2011 MASE
stlf 0.41
ses 0.51
arfima 1.49
auto.arima 0.35
Results Of Duration Test
FF-1980 MASE
meanf 9.67
stlf 1.19
arfima 0.78
HoltWinters 1.49
FF-2007 MASE
meanf 0.22
stlf 0.30
arfima 0.43
HoltWinters 0.15
FF-2011 MASE
meanf 1.99
stlf 0.44
arfima 1.49
HoltWinters 0.60
Results Of Duration Test
FF-1980 MASE
thetaf 1.31
holt 1.26
hw 0.78
auto.arima 1.20
FF-2007 MASE
thetaf 0.61
holt 0.65
hw 0.65
auto.arima 0.70
FF-2011 MASE
theta 0.33
holt 0.25
hw 0.32
auto.arima 0.35
Observation
For long-term prediction, the ARFIMA model is
the best.
For short-term prediction, the HoltWinters
model is more accurate.
Result Where GP Trend
Remains Constant
1980-1995 MASE
ses 0.36
nnetar 1.59
tbats 1.58
auto.arima 1.13
Result Where GP is Decreasing
1980-2008 MASE
snaive 0.36
croston 1.59
stlf 1.58
nnetar 1.13
Result Where GP in Peak
1980-2011 MASE
thetaf 1.83
naive 1.81
ses 1.80
arfima 1.89
Most of the algorithms are unpredictable.
Demo
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