global susy analysis with icecube directly comparing ...mda65/talks/mssm_scanning.pdf · sd nuclear...

Matthias Danninger

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube&

directly comparing IceCube event-level data with individual SUSY models

IC22 final data

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 2

New SUSY analysis with IceCube

What can the muon signal tell me?

Roughly:✗ Number – how much annihilation is going on in the Sun

⇒ info on σSD , σSI and <σv>✗ Spectrum – sensitive to WIMP mass mχ and branching

fractions BF into different annihilation channels χ✗ Direction – how likely it is that they come from the Sun

In model-independent analyses a lot of this information is either discarded or not given with final limits

Goal:Use as much of this information on σSD , σSI , <σv> , mχ and BF (χ ) as possible to directly constrain specific points and regions in WIMP model parameter spaces

IceCube Coll. together with:Pat Scott, Chris Savage,Joakim Edsjö

detailed presentation* (TeVPA11)

*Direct link: http://agenda.albanova.se./conferenceDisplay.py?contribId=396&sessionId=255&confId=2600

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 3

DarkSUSY for computing neutrino fluxes:✗ No assumption of equilibrium between capture & annihilation, or ann. final state✗ Inclusion of perturbations to WIMP orbits by Jupiter✗ Full numerical capture treatment. SD and SI scattering on more isotopes, not just H¹✗ Full neutrino production, propagation and oscillation via tabulated WimpSim results✗ Explicit example models - lightest neutralino in SUSY (MSSM-7 and CMSSM)

SUSY model exclusion analysis

Compare observed number of events and predicted number for each model, taking into account systematic uncertainties and construct p-values

→ Model exclusion analysis

Hamish S. (master thesis) and Jenni Adams (Univ. of Canterbury)→ full 25 parameter pMSSM scan for model exclusion analysis

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 4

SUSY model exclusion analysis

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 5

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

All was set up first for IceCube-22 string

background flux events observed outside the analysis region

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 6

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

background flux events observed outside the analysis region

All from MC simulations

Conservative estimate of effective Area for IC86, why?

Logical “ OR”

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 7

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

✗ Only partial goodness of fit, no measure of convergence, no idea how to generalise to regions or whole space.

✗ Frequency/density of models in IN/OUT scans means essentially nothing.

Assuming preliminary (conservative) estimate of IC-86 effective area

prel

imina

ry

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 8

More information comes from a global statistical fit.→ parameter estimation exercise

Composite likelihood made up of observations from all over:✗ Dark matter relic density from WMAP✗ Precision electroweak tests at LEP & LEP limits on sparticle masses✗ B-factory data (rare decays, b → sγ)✗ Muon anomalous magnetic moment✗ LHC searches, direct detection (not yet included)

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

+ IceCube unbinned likelihood

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 9

SD nuclear scattering cross-section in the CMSSM with IceCube-22 events

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

✗ Contours indicate 1σ and 2σ credible regions✗ Shading+contours indicate relative probability only, not overall goodness of fit✗ Scans performed with modified SuperBayes 1.5.1 and unreleased DarkSUSY✗ Bayesian posterior: total posterior (prior times llh) is integrated over other dim. of the

space

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 10

SD nuclear scattering cross-section in the CMSSM with IceCube-22 events

✗ Contours indicate 1σ and 2σ credible regions✗ Shading+contours indicate relative probability only, not overall goodness of fit✗ Scans performed with modified SuperBayes 1.5.1 and unreleased DarkSUSY✗ Bayesian posterior: total posterior (prior times llh) is integrated over other dim. of the

space

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 11

SD nuclear scattering cross-section in the CMSSM with IceCube-22 events

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

prel

imina

ry

✗ Contours indicate 1σ and 2σ credible regions✗ Shading+contours indicate relative probability only, not overall goodness of fit✗ Scans performed with modified SuperBayes 1.5.1 and unreleased DarkSUSY✗ Bayesian posterior: total posterior (prior times llh) is integrated over other dim. of the

space

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 12

SD nuclear scattering cross-section in the CMSSM with IceCube-22 events

✗ Contours indicate 1σ and 2σ credible regions✗ Scans performed with modified SuperBayes 1.5.1 and unreleased DarkSUSY✗ frequentist profile likelihood: maximising llh in the other dimensions of the parameter

space

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

prel

imina

ry

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 13

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

Nothing below 50 GeV x 600

x 100

x 60

x 50x 10

Reasonable assumption to scale IC22 by 100 for expected IC86 sensitivity?

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 14

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

Nothing below 50 GeV x 600

x 100

x 60

x 50x 10

Typical signal spectrum

Reasonable assumption to scale IC22 by 100 for expected IC86 sensitivity?

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 15

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

Reasonable assumption to scale IC22 by 100 for expected IC86 sensitivity?

Nothing below 50 GeV x 600

x 100

x 60

x 50x 10

Typical signal spectrum

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 16

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

1000 files each with signal content (6, 60 events on top of data)→ check if excluded or not & which e.g. cross-section the strong signal correspnds

60 events drawn randomly from pdf's

Injected W W (500 GeV) with corresponding SD-cross section of log = -3.4⁺ ⁻ ¹⁰

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 17

SD nuclear scattering cross-section in the CMSSM with IceCube-22 events

Global SUSY analysis with IceCube

prel

imina

ry

✗ Contours indicate 1σ and 2σ credible regions✗ Scans performed with modified SuperBayes 1.5.1 and unreleased DarkSUSY✗ frequentist profile likelihood: maximising llh in the other dimensions of the parameter

space

Injected W W (500 GeV) with corresponding SD-cross section of log = -3.4⁺ ⁻ ¹⁰

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 18

Closing remarks

✗ Very good progress (Madison meeting only idea was presented)✗ Understand all open issues✗ Improve speed of calculations✗ Method paper with IceCube-22 data as example (IC86 sens.?)✗ Physics paper with IceCube-79 analysis✗ A framework for directly comparing event-level IceCube data to

individual points in theory parameter spaces is in place→ The requisite tools will be available in DarkSUSY in the future→ Event data will eventually be released in a form digestible by the tools→ Direct SUSY analyses of IC79 data are on the way

No new improved experimental analysismuch more comprehensive statistical analysis, containing more detailed information about excludable parameter space → possible big impact in global fits with IceCube-79

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 19

Additional Slides

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 20

• Nchan distributions are norm. to 1 and given in log10(E) bins of 0.2 as indicated in scatter plot

• Individual histos are written to txt-file for input

Nchan as energy estimator

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 21

Nchan as energy estimator

Matthias Danninger                    Uppsala Meeting 22

• Higher stats not possible• It is already extremely high

stats (45y lifetime)• used for signal only, the E-

bins with low statistics will not be used as no solar WIMP-signal-nu can have that high E

Nchan as energy estimator