global challenges and high impact strategies

Global Challenges and High Impact Strategies

Finnish Institute for International Affairs

Jerome C. GlennThe Millennium Project -- themp.org

ever-increasing ways to improve the human condition

The World is in a Race

Between implementing

and the seemingly ever-increasing complexity and scale of global

problems.

Global Collective Intelligence can help…

Win the Race

How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?

1

How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

2

How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

3

How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

4

How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

5

How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?

6

How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?

7

How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?

8

How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and institutions change?

9

How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

10

How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?

11

How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

12

How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?

13

How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

14

How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

15

How can sustainable development be achieved for all while addressing global climate change?

How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?

How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?

How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?

How can decisionmaking be enhanced by integrating improved global foresight during unprecedented accelerating change?How can the global convergence of

information and communications technologies work for everyone?

How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?

How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?

How can education make humanity more intelligent, knowledgeable, and wise enough to address its global challenges?

How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?

How can the changing status of women improve the human condition?

How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?

How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?

How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?

Framework for understanding Global Change: 15 Global Challenges

2015 State of the Future Index

28 Variables use in the 2015 SOFI

• GNI per capita, PPP (constant 2011 int $)

• Economic income inequality (income share

held by highest 10%)

• Unemployment, total (% of world labor force)

• Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP)

(percent of population)

• CPIA transparency, accountability, and

corruption in the public sector rating Foreign

direct investment, net inflows (BoP, current

US$, billions)

• R&D Expenditures (percent of GDP)

• Population growth (annual rate)

• Life expectancy at birth (years)

• Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)

• Prevalence of undernourishment percent of

population)

• Health expenditure per capita (current US$)

• Physicians (per 1,000 people)

• Improved water source (percent of population

with access)

• Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (cubic

meters)

• Biocapacity per capita

• Forest area (percent of land area)

• Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)

• Energy-efficiency (GDP per unit of energy use (constant 2011

PPP $ per kg of oil equivalent))

• Electricity production from renewable sources, excluding

hydroelectric (percent of total)

• Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)

• School enrollment, secondary (percent gross)

• Share of high skilled employment (percent)

• Number of wars and serious arm conflicts

• Terrorism incidents

• Freedom rights (number of countries rated “free”)

• Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments

(percent of members)

• Internet users (per 100 people)

World Report Card

Where are We Winning?

1.49

66.44

59.70

21.33

463.50

1.30

79.17

5.77

1.19

79.43

56.21

13.80

12.42

76.00

319.89

33.63

9,096.68

15.80

1.21

69.04

44.20

17.64

711.01

1.45

85.63

6.69

1.98

84.27

63.72

15.70

16.49

89.00

1,358.71

21.10

11,488.75

45.73

1.13

71.51

30.04

12.44

1,246.11

1.61

90.54

7.74

6.74

86.10

75.89

18.30

22.10

90.21

1,923.62

11.92

15,039.57

90.12

1.16

73.46

20.47

8.67

1,940.45

1.76

91.71

8.56

19.39

90.84

88.78

19.40

32.89

91.00

2,075.25

7.16

20,017.10

0.78

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Internet Users (per 100 people)

Population growth (annual %)

Life expectancy at birth (years)

Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)

Prevalence of undernourishment (% population)

Health expenditure per capita (US$)

Physicians (per 1,000 people)

Improved water sources (% population with access)

Energy-Efficiency (GDP/unit of energy use)

Electricity from renewables, excl. hydro (% of total)

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15+)

School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

Share of high skilled employment (%)

Women in national parliaments (% of members)

Freedom (number of countries rated free)

Foreign direct investment, net inflows (US$, billions)

Poverty ($1.25/day, PPP) (%)

GNI per capita (PPP, 2011 international $)

1995 2005 2015 2025

Where are We Losing?

World Report Card

2.83

44.00

2.02

2.00

31.76

7,658

6,398

6.09

2.89

46.00

2.02

1.80

31.24

6,791

8,093

6.13

2.91

51.37

31.00

11,792

2.00

1.68

30.84

5,859

10,484

6.08

2.96

48.00

34.78

30,367

2.01

1.61

30.61

4,982

15,257

6.20

3,079 2,010

31.22

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Corruption in the public sector (1=low; 6=high)

Number of wars and serious arm conflicts (25+ deaths)

Income inequality (share of top 10%)

Terrorism incidents

R&D expenditures (% of GDP)

Biocapacity per capita (gha)

Forest area (% of land area)

Renewable internal freshwater resources (m3/capita)

Fossil fuel and cement production emissions (MtC/yr)

Unemployment (% of world labor force)

1995 2005 2015 2025

Initial Draft

Integrated Global Strategy

Old way of looking at the Future of Technology

Artificial Intelligence

Robotic manufacturing

Computational Science

3-D4-D Priting

Nanotechnology

Quantum computing

Synthetic Biology

Drones

Artificial General Intelligence

Tele-Everything & Tele-Everybodythe Semantic Web

Smart Phone Integration/Synergies

Future Technology Synergies

Robotic manufacturing

Drones

Quantum computing

Robotic manufacturing

3D，4D Printing

Augmented RealityTele-Presence, Holographics

Nanotechnology

Artificial General Intelligence

Tele-EverythingTele-Everybodythe Semantic Web

Increasing individual and collective intelligence

Synthetic Biology

Nanotechnology

Future Technology Synergies

Artificial Intelligence

Robotic manufacturing

Quantum computing

Drones

Future Technology

Robotic manufacturing

3D，4D Printing

Augmented Reality,Tele-Presence, Holographics

When this begins to happen, the speed of increasing AI’s intelligence will

be far fasterand produce more change than Moore’s Law

by responding to feedback from sensor networks worldwide,

will accelerate AI’s intelligence worldwide… moment by moment

Artificial Intelligence … that can autonomously “write” and improve its code…

What is possible… will change

Moore’s Law

+

Artificial Intelligence acceleration to AGI

+

Computational science

These three together will change what we think is possible.

If \ Then Nano-

technology

Synthetic

Biology

Artificial

Intelligence

Robotics 3-D Printing Augmented

Reality

Nano-

technology xxx

Synthetic

Biology xxx

Artificial

Intelligence xxxRobotics

xxx3-D Printing

xxxAugmented

Reality xxx

Emerging Technologies Table

Some Long-Rage Future

International Security Threats

SIMAD

Organized Crime

Artificial Super Intelligence

Global Long-term Structural Unemployment

Nanotechnology – individual mass armies, gray goo

Augmented Geniuses – mini Hitlers, brain gap prejudice

Climate Change to Green Sky

Weakening Magnetic Poles

Reduce the likelihood of SIMADs

Technology Sensors, mesh networks, etc.

Public Prevention &

Detection Rolls

Mental Health, Child

Development, Education

Potential Global

Assessment by The

Millennium Project

Will our artificial Brains out think us?

Artificial Intelligence1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence2. Artificial General Intelligence3. Artificial Super Intelligence

Future of Work?

Humans Augmented by technology

….rather than replaced by it?

If you can’t beat ‘em,

why not join ‘em?

…and evolve together?

Inevitability of New Economics

1. Concentration of wealth is increasing

2. Income gaps are widening

3. Employment-less economic growth seems the new normal

4. Return on investment in capital and technology is usually better

than labor

5. Number of persons per services & products is falling

6. 25-50% unemployment is a business-as-usual forecast by 2050

without new economic approaches

7. Need for national long-range strategic planning workshops

Future Work/Technology 2050 Study

1. Literature and Related Research Review

2. Real-Time Delphi

3. Road Maps and Scenario Drafts

4. RTDelphi Feedback on the Scenarios

5. Final Scenarios, Policy Implications, and produce initial report

6. Initial Report as input to the National Planning Workshops

7. Collect results of the national planning workshops, analyze &

synthesize results

8. Final report for public discussion

Guaranteed income –cash flow projection elements

Income to Government• License and tax Robots• Carbon Tax• Tobin tax – on international financial transfers• Eliminate tax havens• Universal minimum corporate tax• Own percent of corporations• Tax massive wealth growth like some IT

Lower annual cost of guaranteed income • Consolidate welfare programs (unemployment payments, etc.) into the guaranteed income• AI/robotics lowers to cost of living• Free or very low cost health, education, transportation, and energy

Factors to consider• National service; Minimum annual public work• Phase in from work to “next” what every post-job/employment will be• Different incomes in different areas, countries• Can you both work income and guaranteed income?

Dense particles normally circling Earth, deep inside the magnetosphere, can extend a long arm out to meet – and help block – incoming solar material.

http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/plume.gif

The Magnetosphere may weaken

enough in 500 years to no longer

protect life on the Earth

The sooner we start making plans to

leave the earth, the better

Run Away Greenhouse

at 1000 ppm CO2: Jim Hanson,

NASA http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/fact-or-

fiction-runaway-greenhouse/

Hydrogen Sulfate 1000 ppm kills planetary

life , Peter Ward, Under a Green Sky http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/paleontolog

ist-peter-wards-medea-hypothesis-life-is-out-to-get-you/

US-China Joint Goal: 350 ppm

The sooner we start making plans to leave the earth, the better…Insurance Policy

A single individual acting along eventually will be able to

make and deploy a weapon of mass destruction (SIMAD)

The public was not involved in Nuclear Deterrence other

than paying taxes, SIMAD is different – the public is key

The sooner we start making plans to leave the earth,

the better…Insurance Policy

If\then IoT collapse Information

war paranoia

IQ, Brain gap

mini Hitlers

SIMAD Proliferation of

Nano Armies

Mass

Unemployment

IoT collapse xxx

Information

war paranoia xxx

IQ, Brain gap,

mini Hitlers xxxSIMAD

xxxProliferation of

Nano Armies xxxMass

Unemployment xxx

Thinking the Unthinkable… Interactions of what can go wrong

Collective Intelligence Systems: Each Can Change the Other

Global Futures Intelligence System https://themp.org

… May become a TransInstitution

UNOrganizations

NGOsand

Foundations

Universities

GovernmentsCorporations

The Millennium Project

56 Millennium Project Nodes...

Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:

Maybe… the greatest number of future-relevant facts, information, and intelligence ever assembled in one report.

For further information

Jerome C. Glenn+1-202-686-5179 phone/fax

Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org

www.StateoftheFuture.org

Futures Research Methodology 3.0: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html

2015-16 State of the Future: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/201516SOF.html

Global Futures Intelligence System: http://millennium-project.org/millennium/GFIS.html