george w. bush (43). the 2000 race al gore (d)ralph nader (g)

George W. Bush (43)

The 2000 Race

Al Gore (D) Ralph Nader (G)

2000 Election• 2000 election results

Florida 2000

• 537 votes

• Legal Documents

The Questions

• Is the country polarized?

• Are there red and blue states?

Red States 2016 (180 EV)

Blue States 2016 (215 EV)

Swing States (143 EV)

The Country by County

Explaining Polarization

If the US electorate is really polarized…1. Party Changes2. Urban vs. Rural, plus College Towns3. Regional

a) Solid South

4. Culture War: “Guns, God and Gays”5.Result of “winner-take-all” system6.Gerrymandering

1. Party Changes

• Evolution of Parties since 1960s

• Homogenization of the parties

Republican Party Conservatives and Moderates

Democratic PartyConservatives and Liberals

2. Urban vs. Rural, plus College TownsPopulation Density Matters

Red State by County: Alabama

Blue State by County: Illinois

Purple States by County

Virginia Pennsylvania

3. Regional: The South Switches

1952 1964

4. Culture War: “Guns, God and Gays”

Which one of these looks like freedom?

5. Result of “winner-take-all” system

Florida 2000: Red State?

 PresidentialCandidate

Vice PresidentialCandidate

PoliticalParty

Popular Vote Electoral Vote

George W. Bush Richard Cheney Republican 2,912,790 48.85% 25

Albert Gore Jr. Joseph Lieberman Democratic 2,912,253 48.84% 0

Ralph Nader Winona LaDuke Green 97,488 1.63% 0

Patrick Buchanan Ezola Foster Reform 17,484 0.29% 0

Harry Browne Art Olivier Libertarian 16,415 0.28% 0

Other (+) - - 6,680 0.11% 0

6. Gerrymandering: Ugly, Uglier

• Governor Elbridge Gerry (MA)

• From Boston Gazette, March 1812

Explaining Polarization

If the electorate is not polarized…1.Polarization is an election strategy

a) Polarized elitesb) The use of fear

2.Low Turnouta) only the most ideological vote

3.Purple States: swing voters4. Independents: alienated voters

1. Polarization as an Election Strategy

1996 Gopac Memo from Newt Gingrich

2. Voter Turnoutonly the most ideological vote

Presidential Midterm Primaries

1992 55% 1994 41%

1996 49% 1998 38%

2000 51% 2002 39%

2004 57% 2006 40%

2008 58% 2010 41% 2010 18%

2012 55% 2014 36% 2014 14%

Voter Turnout

3. Purple States: swing voters(143 EV)

4. Independents: alienated voters

The center doesn’t vote?

But the left and right do?

Bush Background

Senator Prescott Bush Pres. GHW Bush

(with Ike)

His Administration

• Foreign Affairs advisers: Bush II

• Domestic Policy advisers: W I

• Policies: Reagan III

But: “Compassionate Conservatism”

No Child Left Behind

Post-Modern Presidency?

• 1789-1933: Pre-Modern• 1933-1989: Modern or Crisis Presidency• 1989: End of the Crisis Presidency• Post-Modern?

– Bush-Clinton-Bush– Weak executive– Madisonian model– “Governor of the USA”

World Trade Center, NYC

Pentagon

Post-September 11

• New Crisis Presidency• Return to Modern Presidency• Bush Address to Congress 9/20/01

Unitary Executive Theory

• Executive Power

• National Security

• Theme in Republican Presidencies– Nixon - Impoundment– Nixon - Watergate– Reagan – Iran-Contra

Bush and Presidential Power

1. Office of Homeland Security vs. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)

2. Asking for Authority

1. AUMF 9/18/01 (Authorization to Use Military Force)

2. Authorization for Use of Military Force against Iraq Resolution of 2002, 9/16/02

3. Surveillance

4. Detainees

5. Signing Statements

Standard US Governmental Process

Congress introduces bill

negotiation begins Exec-Leg Bill becomes

agreement lawPresIntroduces bill Exec-Leg

disagreement

Congress passes bill

Pres vetoes

Congress overrides

Standard Process with Signing Statement

P. implements

his versionCongress of lawintroduces bill Exec-Leg

negotiation agreement Bill becomes begins law

PresIntroduces bill Exec-Leg

disagreement

Pres. signs bill anyway;Adds interpretationin signing statement

The Language in the Bush 43 Signing Statements

“The executive branch shall construe {reference to the bill} in a manner consistent with the constitutional authority of the President to supervise the unitary executive branch.”

Executive Orders

By President•Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation 9/22/62•FDR’s Orders 1937•Carter creates FEMA 7/20/79•Bush creates HSC and OHS 10/8/01•Bush Military Order on Unlawful Enemy Combatants 11/13/01•Obama Executive Order on Immigration 11/20/14

The Current Battle

House Lawsuit against Obama Actions on Affordable Care Act

•The Resolution Authorizing the Lawsuit

•New York Times

•Wall Street Journal

Bush 43: The Slide

• Iraq

• Hurricane Katrina

• The Great Recession

Hurricane Katrina

US public opinion turns against the war

Source: Scott Keeter, Trends in Public Opinion about the War in Iraq, 2003-2007, March 2007: http://pewresearch.org/pubs/431/trends-in-

public-opinion-about-the-war-in-iraq-2003-2007

The Great Recession

Bush Public Approval