gdc europe - super data for digital games (superdata research)

Super Data for Digital Games

1

SuperData | Digital games market intelligence

Prepared for GDC Europe 2014

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

2

Stephanie Llamas Senior Analyst, Consumer Insights SuperData Research @Stephinaners @_SuperData

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Who are gamers?

Who are gamers?

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Who are gamers?

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Who are gamers?

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Who are gamers?

Who are gamers?

Name: Alice AKA Stephanie’s !!! Grandma! !

Age: Undisclosed (about the age ! of a grandma)!!

Occupation: Former RN/Currently !! retired! !

Favorite games: PacMan, Legend !! of Zelda, ! ! FarmVille

Name: Alice AKA Stephanie’s !!! Grandma! !

Age: Undisclosed (about the age ! of a grandma)!!

Occupation: Former RN/Currently !! retired! !

Favorite games: PacMan, Legend !! of Zelda, ! ! FarmVille

Who are gamers?

Name: Alice AKA Stephanie’s !!! Grandma! !

Age: Undisclosed (about the age ! of a grandma)!!

Occupation: Former RN/Currently !! retired! !

Favorite games: PacMan, Legend !! of Zelda, ! ! FarmVille

Who are gamers?

HARDCORE!

GAMER

Asia

$18.6 billion

North America

$12.3 billion

Latin America

$4.3 billion

Europe

$11.6 billion

Rest of world

$2.1 billion

SuperData | Digital games market intelligence

Worldwide digital games revenues, 2014E

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

SuperData | Digital games market intelligence

Worldwide digital games revenues, 2014E

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

2011 2012 2013 2014

$48.9$42.6

$34.5$23.7

SuperData | Digital games market intelligence

Worldwide digital games revenues, 2014E

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

2011 2012 2013 2014

$48.9$42.6

$34.5$23.7 +2x

15J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

WW digital games market ($ mil)M

onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014

Digital category Last year total(billions USD)

Y-o-Y growth %

Subscription-based MMOs

Free-to-play MMOs

Digital PC (games, MTX, DLC)

Digital Console (games, MTX, DLC)

Mobile (iOS + Android)

Social (all platforms) $8.7 20%Overall

Breakdown by segment

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

16J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

WW digital games market ($ mil)M

onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014

Digital category Last year total(billions USD)

Y-o-Y growth %

Subscription-based MMOs

Free-to-play MMOs

Digital PC (games, MTX, DLC)

Digital Console (games, MTX, DLC)

Mobile (iOS + Android) $21.1 19%Social (all platforms) $8.7 20%

Overall

Breakdown by segment

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

17J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

WW digital games market ($ mil)M

onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014

Digital category Last year total(billions USD)

Y-o-Y growth %

Subscription-based MMOs

Free-to-play MMOs

Digital PC (games, MTX, DLC)

Digital Console (games, MTX, DLC) $2.5 26%

Mobile (iOS + Android) $21.1 19%Social (all platforms) $8.7 20%

Overall

Breakdown by segment

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

18J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

WW digital games market ($ mil)M

onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014

Digital category Last year total(billions USD)

Y-o-Y growth %

Subscription-based MMOs

Free-to-play MMOs

Digital PC (games, MTX, DLC) $6.2 16%

Digital Console (games, MTX, DLC) $2.5 26%

Mobile (iOS + Android) $21.1 19%Social (all platforms) $8.7 20%

Overall

Breakdown by segment

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

19J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

WW digital games market ($ mil)M

onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014

Digital category Last year total(billions USD)

Y-o-Y growth %

Subscription-based MMOs

Free-to-play MMOs $8.0 5%Digital Console (games,

MTX, DLC) $2.5 26%Digital PC (games, MTX,

DLC) $6.2 16%Mobile (iOS + Android) $21.1 19%Social (all platforms) $8.7 20%

Overall

Breakdown by segment

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

20J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

WW digital games market ($ mil)M

onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014

Digital category Last year total(billions USD)

Y-o-Y growth %

Subscription-based MMOs $2.5 -9%

Free-to-play MMOs $8.0 5%Digital Console (games,

MTX, DLC) $2.5 26%Digital PC (games, MTX,

DLC) $6.2 16%Mobile (iOS + Android) $21.1 19%Social (all platforms) $8.7 20%

Overall

Breakdown by segment

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

21J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

WW digital games market ($ mil)M

onth

ly re

venu

e ($ m

il)

2013 2014

Digital category Last year total(billions USD)

Y-o-Y growth %

Subscription-based MMOs $2.5 -9%

Free-to-play MMOs $8.0 5%Digital Console (games,

MTX, DLC) $2.5 26%Digital PC (games, MTX,

DLC) $6.2 16%Mobile (iOS + Android) $21.1 19%Social (all platforms) $8.7 20%

Overall $49 15%

Breakdown by segment

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Traditional video game industry value chainResponsibility Example $60

Developer ‣ design, programming, debugging, writing, animation, localization

‣ Westwood Studios, RockStar Studios, Infinity Ward

$6

Publisher‣ capital ‣ marketing ‣ legal, licensing

‣ Electronic Arts, Take-Two, Activision/Blizzard $24

Manufacturer ‣ certificate ‣ production, manufacturing ‣ Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft $12

Distributor ‣ man in a van ‣ storage, delivery

‣ GameWorld, Game Center Distribution $3

Retailer ‣ shelf space ‣ customer loyalty, prod. offerings

‣ GameStop, BestBuy, Walmart $15

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Responsibility Example $0.99

Developerdesign, programming, debugging, writing, animation, localization, analytics, monetization, community management

‣ Rovio, OMGPOP! $0.15

Publisher‣ capital, marketing ‣ legal, licensing ‣ user acquisition

‣ Kabam!, KIXEYE, Zynga $0.54

Manufacturer‣ certificate ‣ production, manufacturing ‣ curation

‣ Apple, Google $0.30

Distributor ‣ storage, delivery ‣ Steam, GamersGate

Retailer ‣ user recommendation engine ‣ payment

New video game industry value chain

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Digital vs Retail-based revenue for major publicly traded publishers

Retail vs. Digital

Digital vs retail revenues from quarterly filings and estimates for: Activision, EA, Ubisoft, Take Two, Square Enix, Konami, Capcom, Disney, THQ.

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

2010 20122011 2013Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Reve

nue (

$M)

Retail

Digital

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

25

We know the industry’s growing… but why?

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

26

We know the industry’s growing… but why?

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Mobile Games

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Mobile Games

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

5.0%

5.2%

$21.60

$19.52

Q1 2014

Q1 2013Conversion ARPPUU.S.

Mobile Games

2012 2013 2014

43% Western market share of mobile games revenue

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Mobile Games

2012 2013 2014

43% Western market share of mobile games revenue

$21.1B 2014E worldwide mobile games revenue

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Mobile Games

2012 2013 2014

43% Western market share of mobile games revenue

$21.1B 2014E worldwide mobile games revenue

1.9B 2014E worldwide mobile games audience (MAU)

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Mobile Games

2012 2013 2014

43% Western market share of mobile games revenue

$21.1B 2014E worldwide mobile games revenue

1.9B 2014E worldwide mobile games audience (MAU)

9% 74% 34%

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

0

100

200

300

400

Mobile Games

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

# of

mob

ile g

ames

0

100

200

300

400

Mobile Games

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

0

100

200

300

400

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Mobile Games Cartel

Trend: Mobile

1002013

Jan Feb Mar

U.S.CPI ARPU

2014Jan Feb Mar

137

105

indexed

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Free-to-play MMOs

2011 2012 2013 2014

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

P2P

Free-to-play MMOs

2011 2012 2013 2014

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

F2P

P2P

Free-to-play MMOsMOBAs

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Free-to-play MMOs

League of Legends

MOBAs

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J

Free-to-play MMOs

League of Legends

MOBAs

2011 2012 2013 2014

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

$7MAverage monthly revenue in 2011

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J

Free-to-play MMOs

League of Legends

MOBAs

2011 2012 2013 2014

$70MAverage monthly revenue in 2013

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

$7MAverage monthly revenue in 2011

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J

Free-to-play MMOs

League of Legends

MOBAs

2011 2012 2013 2014

$70MAverage monthly revenue in 2013

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

217%Growth in MAU - July 2012 vs. July 2014

32MM26MM26MM

16MM15MMLeague of Legends:

Season 3 World Championship

BCS National Championship

NBA Finals (Game 7)

NCAA Basketball Final Four (Average)

MLB World Series

Data: Nielsen, Riot #GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Free-to-play MMOsMOBAs

5-on-5 teamsFree-to-play MMOs

MOBAs

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

5-on-5 teams35-45 min matches

Free-to-play MMOsMOBAs

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

5-on-5 teams35-45 min matchesLow barrier to entry

Free-to-play MMOsMOBAs

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

5-on-5 teams35-45 min matches

Skill-basedLow barrier to entry

Free-to-play MMOsMOBAs

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

$2MMLeague of Legends prize pool

+salariesaside from prize and sponsorship revenue

Free-to-play MMOsMOBAs

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

2011 2012 2013

prize money

million

2014E

$32

2010 2014E

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

eSports

2011 2012 2013

viewers

prize money

118million

2014E

million

2014E

$32

2010 2014E

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

eSports

2011 2012 2013

viewers

prize money

As more people watch eSports, the stakes get higher

118million

2014E

million

2014E

$32

2010 2014E

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

eSports

attend live eventsone quarterwatch every day

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

eSports

attend live eventsone quarterwatch every day

2.2 hoursAverage eSports viewing session

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

eSports

attend live eventsone quarterwatch every day

Average number of eSports viewing sessions in a month19 times2.2 hours

Average eSports viewing session

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

eSports

25K21K20K18K

13K

U.S. Open Men’s Grand Slam Final

MLG Spring Championship

NBA Finals (Game 7)

Stanley Cup (Game 6)

LOL Season 3 World Champ.

Data: Riot, NHL, NBA, MLG, U.S. Open

eSports

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

The age of streaming

540K535K498K

465K464K

Number of average prime time viewers

Data: Nielsen, Twitch

eSports

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

x2

YouTube

Time spent viewing gaming content

2011 2012

Data: YouTube, MLG, Twitch

The age of streamingeSports

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

x2 x3

YouTube MLG.tv

Time spent viewing gaming content

2011 2012 2012 2013

Data: YouTube, MLG, Twitch

The age of streamingeSports

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

x2 x3 x2

YouTube MLG.tv Twitch.tv

Time spent viewing gaming content

2011 2012 2012 2013 2012 2013

Data: YouTube, MLG, Twitch

The age of streamingeSports

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

x2 x2

YouTube Twitch.tv2011 2012 2012 2013

x2 x3$1B#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

The age of streamingeSports

Time spent viewing gaming content

Digital Console

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Worldwide digital console market*

Audience

2013

2014

E Audience

196MM

214MM

Digital Console

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Worldwide digital console market*

RevenueAudience

2013

2014

ERevenueAudience

196MM$2.0B

214MM$2.5B

Digital Console

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

1.98%

1.83%

$26.37

$24.60

Average revenue

Worldwide digital console market

Conversion

*

per paying userrate

Q1 20

13

RevenueAudience

2013

2014

ERevenueAudience

196MM$2.0B

214MM$2.5B

Q1 20

14

Digital Console

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

10% - Side stories19% - Class unlocks26% - Songs26% - Map packs32% - Expansion packs33% - Vehicles or upgrades36% - Vanity items55% - New weapons or upgrades

Percentage of spenders who bought the following items:

Digital Console

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners

10% - Side stories19% - Class unlocks26% - Songs26% - Map packs32% - Expansion packs33% - Vehicles or upgrades36% - Vanity items55% - New weapons or upgrades

Percentage of spenders who bought the following items:

55%Spenders who purchase weapons/weapon upgrades

Digital Console

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners

10% - Side stories19% - Class unlocks26% - Songs26% - Map packs32% - Expansion packs33% - Vehicles or upgrades36% - Vanity items55% - New weapons or upgrades

Percentage of spenders who bought the following items:

55%Spenders who purchase weapons/weapon upgrades

40%Spenders who say the cost of items is the biggest inhibitor to more console spending

Digital Console

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners

•GTAV Online’s MMO-like environment keeps micro revenues steady longer.

•GTAV uses virtual currency, much like mobile games.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

$8$9$10$10$11$13$14$14$15$10$7$0

Month since release

Grand Theft Auto V: Worldwide microtransaction revenue, millions

N/A

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Digital Console

63% 37%

Digital Console

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

63% 37%

age

32years old

average

Digital Console

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

63% 37%

age salary

32 $57kyears old per year

average average

Digital Console

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

63% 37%

age salary education

32 $57kyears old per year

3YRSof college

average average average

Digital Console

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Women and games

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Women and games

80%

20%eSports viewers

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Women and games

80%

20%eSports viewers

58%42%

F2P MMO players in

Russia

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Women and games

80%

20%eSports viewers

58%42%

F2P MMO players in

Russia

37%63%

U.S. Social Casino gamers

#GDCEurope

Women and games

80%

20%eSports viewers

58%42%

F2P MMO players in

Russia

37%63%

U.S. Social Casino gamers

36%

64%Polish mobile gamers

#GDCEurope

Women and games

80%

20%eSports viewers

58%42%

F2P MMO players in

Russia

37%63%

U.S. Social Casino gamers

36%

64%Polish mobile gamers

35%

65%

U.S. mobile gamers

#GDCEurope

Who are gamers?

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Who are gamers?

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Who are gamers?

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Who are gamers?

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

#GDCEurope @StephiNaners @_SuperData

Thanks!