future of the cotton industry - textiles, fabrics, cotton production, manufacturing - futurist...

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd !

Take Hold of the Future Key issues for the Cotton Industry

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ALL      BIG      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED  !

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Future of cotton is about

EMOTION

Co/on  ac3vists  need  to  agree  what  is  best  for  whole  world

More Sustainable Cotton Industry !• Be$er  use  of  land,  water,  transport,  energy,  labour  force  

• Benefit  to  environment,  communi;es  and  future  world  

Winning the argument !

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Why are synthetics promoted as sustainable? !

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1  trillion  pages  a  month  

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US consumers willing to pay more for 100% cotton

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Emerging Middle Class Love Cotton !

1 billion children alive today

300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030

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Growth of Middle Class in Africa 250m people - $2 trillion by 2040

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Cotton consumption (m of tons) will be dominated by emerging markets

China stockpiling Cotton Cut need for price subsidies in other nations

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US / Brazil World Trade Organisation Dispute !

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Historic and Projected US payments to cotton farmers and Prices (Stax / CCIP)

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Cotton in emerging markets: 96% mill use, 97% imports, 81% production, 52% exports

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Rapid  growth  of  organic  co/on  will  be  driven  by  ac3vist  

pressure  on  global  corpora3ons  as  part  of  their  wider  CSR  

commitments,  despite  lack  of  interest  by  most  consumers

Most consumers in developed markets and emerging markets are not motivated by organic or fair trade cotton labels

• In  the  UK,  sales  of  Fairtrade  products  in  2012  reached  £1.5  • 78  per  cent  of  consumers  recognise  the  FAIRTRADE  Mark  • One  in  every  three  bananas  sold  • 44  per  cent  of  bagged  sugar  sold  • 25  per  cent  of  all  roast  and  ground  retail  coffee    • Fairtrade  products  are  now  sold  in  more  than  125  countries  • FAIRTRADE  logo  most  widely-­‐recognised  ethical  label  globally  

Fair Trade Food Sales up 18% pa

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Organic v Fair Trade Bananas !

Organic Cotton Supply Issues $8bn industry growing 20% pa

Production fell 37% in 2011 !

Problem of Certification !

Managing Supply Chain Better Cotton Initiative Cotton Made in Africa

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$40 Trillion Green Tech Boom driven by oil price, cost cuts, green activism

Lessons for cotton industry

Shale gas 33% US supplies

3.3m US jobs $468bn pa + more oil

produced than Saudi by 2020 !

200 years global supply Up from 60 years in 5 years

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total global power use Power Moscow from Libyan Desert

“40%  EU  power  =  wind  by  2050”  Surplus  wind  to  hydrogen  -­‐  to  methane  ?

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day 7,000 times total power use

QUEBEC from ARIZONA MOSCOW from SAHARA

� 30 million acres lost !

� EU 5% gasoline and diesel from food

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30% US grain now burnt in vehicles Biofuels link energy and land / food prices

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80 nations by 50-100m farmers 28m tons of cotton grown on 2.5% arable land

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Sustainable Cotton Doubled production per acre since 1960s

50% increase in US Impact of transgenic cotton on yields

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BT Cotton now 95% of India production Bollworms down, but aphids up, seed shortage, black market, farmer costs up

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Cotton still uses 14% global insecticides 6% global pesticides

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Water shortage, land damage, pollution 0.3-1% global carbon emissions

(International Cotton Advisory Committee) !

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Total use of cotton plant Food source

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Child Labour will be a big issue - not only harvesting but also in manufacturing

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Only sell or do what you believe in and are proud of

The  only  corporate  value  worth  having  

• Individuals  • Families  • Teams  • Shareholders  •Communi4es  •Wide  World  !

Crea3ng  a  Be/er  World

Summary !

Despite some predictions, cotton will have great future Greatest challenge will be activists disagreeing what is best Most cotton consumption growth will be in emerging markets

Drivers will be young populations, emerging middle class Cotton will be fabric of choice for emerging middle class Cotton will have natural advantage in hot, humid nations

Cotton will be seen more natural, renewable than synthetics Main challenge will be next-generation synthetics

eg nanotech coatings / air cleaning / no iron / feel and stretch Few consumers will care about organic or fair trade cotton

But use will grow very rapidly - driven by activist pressure on large corporations as part of wider CSR policies

Certification will really matter for future credibility / sales Food industry will be key guide to future “ethical” cotton

trends eg certification, labelling, integrated supply chains !

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

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