future estuary tim reeder climate change advisor
Post on 18-Jan-2016
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Future Estuary
Tim ReederClimate Change Advisor
Tidal Flood Risk
1m0m 4m3m2m
New barrier, retain Thames Barrier, raise defences
Raise Defences
New barrier, raise defences
Existing system
Improve Thames Barrier and raise d/s defences
Over-rotate Thames Barrier and restore
interim defencesFlood storage, improve Thames
Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences
Flood storage, over rotate Thames Barrier, raise u/s & d/s defences
Flood storage, restore interim defences
Note:
Each box represents one or more portfolios of responses
Maximum water level rise:
Def
ra 2
100
Hig
h ++
210
0
Improve defences
Maximise storage
New Barrier
New barrage
TE2100 developed options
Water Shortage in London?
Summer Precipitation
2020s 50% probability level:central estimate
2050s 50% probability level:central estimate
2080s 50% probability level:central estimate
Climate Change Adaptation Sub Committee
Low EmissionMedium Emission High Emission
Change in Summer Mean Temperatures 2080s London
Potential environmental changes affecting the Thames estuary London
Higher ambient air temperature
Salinity gradient shifts further upriver
Less rainfall during the summer
Higher ambient air temperature
Salinity gradient shifts further upriver Raised sea
water temperature
Reduced freshwater flow, warmer river temperature
Bigger population - increased polluting load from sewage treatment works?; increased heat load from heating networks?; increased abstraction in the freshwater Thames?
Result: An estuary with less dissolved oxygen
Warmer drier environment - a changed ecosystem?
“New ecology” resulting from southern species expanding their range, and new invasive species thrivingNew species have different requirements – current water quality objectives may no longer be relevant
Very young Seabass are sensitive to cold winters; a warmer estuary might be a better nursery for this speciesIn the Medway estuary, a marginal rise in temperatures (from power stations) produced Golden Grey and Thin Lipped Grey Mullet populations
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