fundamentals

Fundamentals

The Seasons for Growing

Reap What You Sow

THE 5 BASIC INSTITUTIONS

Providing The

Instruments

FormingThe

Person

GOV.

MARKETPLACE

FAMILY

CHURCH

SCHOOL

Order

Goods and

Services

The Person

Orientation In Life

Learning

Economic Growth & Production

Human Contribution

•Population size(fertility)

•Human Capital (all skills)

•Technology

Physical Contribution

•Capital (1% … always there …always)

(1) Fertility

Fertility : Western Nations

Weekly Worship vs. Fertility

Baby Boom Retirement Begins

Decreasing Human Contribution to GDP Growth

(2) Human Capital

THE 5 BASIC INSTITUTIONS

Providing The

Instruments

FormingThe

Person

GOV.

MARKETPLACE

FAMILY

CHURCH

SCHOOL

Order

Goods and

Services

The Person

Orientation In Life

Learning

Education( SCHOOL )

MEDIAN LIFETIME EARNINGS

Source: http://www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/collegepayoff-complete.pdfp. P. 3

Lifetime Earnings by Education

Achieved

Marriage

Belonging vs Rejection

2.9

2.62.6

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

Ave

rag

e G

PA

Enl

igsh

/Mat

h C

ombi

ned

INTACT STEP COHABIT (BOTHNATURAL)

COHABIT (ONENATURAL)

DIVORCED NEVER MARRIED

GPA English/Math by Family StructureSource: Adolescent Health Survey, Wave I. Adolescents grade 7-12.

$100

$27

$127

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Com

para

tive

Inco

me

%

Average Unmarried Male Premium Average Married Male

Marriage Premium in Male Income

Source Antovics, K. & Town, R. Am Econ Review V 94, (2004) pp 317-321

+ =

US Total (Males) 1982-2010% “Unskilled” Not Working:

single

single

Cohab

Cohab

Married

Married

US Total (Males) “Not Working” Professional Class

singleCohabMarried

Unemployed

Fraction of Occupation

Class single

Cohab

Married

Retreat from Marriage: Black Men (25-54)

by Education Level 1970-2010)

Retreat from Marriage:Black Men (25-54)

Unemployment Differentials

Marriage (Red) and non-Marriage (blue)

Proportion of MarriedHeads of Households 1960-1990

Growth in Productivity: Down

MARRIED

DIVORCED

SINGLE

Number of Non-Marital Sexual Partners: Percent in an Always Intact Marriage

Source: NSFG 1995

Male Employment 1962-2010Males aged 25-54; Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPS)

Family Intactness in USA

Index of Belonging and Rejection USA

Worship of God

( Religion)

MEDIAN LIFETIME EARNINGS

Source: http://www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/collegepayoff-complete.pdfp. P. 3

2.9

2.62.6

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

2.80

2.90

Ave

rag

e G

PA

Enl

igsh

/Mat

h C

ombi

ned

INTACT STEP COHABIT (BOTHNATURAL)

COHABIT (ONENATURAL)

DIVORCED NEVER MARRIED

GPA English/Math by Family StructureSource: Adolescent Health Survey, Wave I. Adolescents grade 7-12.

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.45

2.50

2.55

2.60

2.65

2.70

2.75

2.80

2.85

2.90

Aver

age

GPA

Enl

igsh

/Mat

h Co

mbi

ned

WEEKLY+ <LESS THAN MONTHLY NEVER

GPA (English & Math) by Religious Practice

Source: Adolescent Health Survey, Wave I. Adolescents grade 7-12.

WEEKLY+ MONTHLY+

<MONTHLY/NEVER

WEEKLY/MONTHLY+

INTACT/COHABIT(NATURAL)

ANY REJ ECTION

2.48

2.722.75

2.94

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

Ave

rag

e G

PA

(E

ng

lish

& M

ath

Co

mb

ine

d)

GPA

Economic Growth + Production

Human Contribution

•Population size

•Human Capital (all skills)

•Technology

Physical Contribution

•Capital (1% … always there …always)

• Economic Activity is driven by the Human Capital of the

Working Head of Household.

• Economic growth of the future is decided by the Human Capital Formation of the next generation in the household.

• The child is the economic agent of the future.

Who Says? Nobel Laureates:

Edward Prescott (2004) Business cycle macroeconomics

George Akerlof (2001) Keynesian market economics

James Heckman (2000) Econometric theory of samples

Robert Lucas (1995) Macro growth theory of expectations

Gary Becker (1992) Neoclassical liberal micro econ behav.

?

THE 5 BASIC INSTITUTIONS

Providing The

Instruments

FormingThe

Person

GOV.

MARKETPLACE

FAMILY

CHURCH

SCHOOL

Order

Goods and

Services

The Person

Orientation In Life

Learning

The Young Intact Married Family with ChildrenThat Worships God Weekly

National and Global Strategy

EVERYTHING ELSE

FALLS IN PLACE

EVERYTHING

marri@frc.org