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Functioning of forest ecosystems and use of forest resources in
changing climate (MIL)
METLA’s research program2007‐2011
Elina Vapaavuori
METLA MIL ‐Moscow 10.02.2010
METLA MIL METLA MIL --Moscow 10.02.2010Moscow 10.02.2010
Suonenjoki, koivuSuonenjoki, koivu Rhinelander, USARhinelander, USAAspenAspenPaper birchPaper birchSugar mapleSugar maple
Flakaliden,SWEFlakaliden,SWENorway spruceNorway spruce
Suonenjoki, FINSilver birch
Outline:
BackgroundClimate change scenariosEffects on forest ecosystems
New research tasks and issues to consider in forestryMIL –research program:
Objectives of the programProjectsResourcesDeliverables
METLA MIL ‐Moscow 10.02.2010
Global annual CO2 emissions have increased markedly since year 1950The emission rate has even increased since year 2000 (>3 % annual increase)
The task to cut down emissions to the level of Kyoto and EU agreement will be hard
Raupach et al. 2007.
PNAS 104, 47:18866-18870.METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010
METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010
• Projections of future temperature changes (IPCC 2007)• warming greatest at the high latitudes• effects on winter length, frost, snow cover
METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010
• Projections of future temperature changes (IPCC 2007)• warming greatest at the high latitudes• effects on winter length, frost, snow cover
winter summer
Great effects on precipitation:variations globally and between seasons
Weather extremes:heavy rains, flooding, storms, heat/drought periods
Consequences:various stress factors to forest ecosystems
Warming in Finland by ~0.4±0.1°C/10 yr during the next three decades
Annual mean temperature
Cha
nge
in te
mpe
ratu
re (
ºC) 1971-2000 => 2070-2099
Scenario Change (ºC)A2 5.1 (3.1 –
7.0)
A1B 4.4 (2.5 –
6.3)
B1 3.2 (1.5 –
4.9)
01020
30
2000 2050 2100
Emissions
(Gt C
/yea
r)
Multi-model mean (19 GCMs) and the 90% uncertainty range
• The rate of warming deviates little between the different emission scenarios up to by the 2040s.
• The warming by the end of the century would be about one third smaller in the B1 scenario compared to the A2 scenario.
With permission: FMI/Kirsti Jylhä
METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010
Temperature (ºC) Contour interval two degrees.
Annual mean temperature 1970-2000
01020
30
2000 2050 2100
Emissions
(Gt C
/yea
r)
A1B
Annual mean temperature 2070-2099
Data source: Haylock et al. (2008)
With permission: FMI/Kirsti Jylhä
DJF 1971-2000 => 2070-2099 JJA
A1B
Unit: %
0102030
2000 2050 2100
Increases in precipitation in Finland
• in winter by 10–40%, and in summer by 0–20%, by the 2080s• Larger precipitation amounts in summer than in winter also in the future
With permission: FMI/Kirsti Jylhä
Prospects of forest growth based on impact –studiesMeta-analysis using data from FACE -exps.
- In forest trees the reponse to ↑CO2 greatest~40 % in photosynthesis~28 % in above-ground biomass
- Overestimates due to minimal risks in these studies
METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010
Questions needed to understand:Are our forest trees and forest ecosystems adapted to the
predicted changes in climate
Increasing T, precipitation, longer growing season, extreme weather events
What are the risks, abiotic and biotic?
How to avoid or cope with the risks?
How to mitigate climate change in forest sector?
Forest industry, carbon storage, bioenergy, biodiversity, multiple use of forests
What are the opinions of the land owners and what policy means are available in driving the behaviour of the land owners?
METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010
MIL-
program: why and to whom?
Information needed: Provide basic knowledge of CC effectsfor CC scenariosof forests’ role in CC mitigationfor decision making in the context of national and international climate policyTo develop the greenhouse gas reporting system of forests, one of Metla’s official tasks
METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010
MIL –
3 thematic areas1. What are the signs of climate change in forest growth?
Proxy dataIncreased forest growth: What are the effects of forest management vs. climate change?Phenology
2. Impacts of climate change on forest ecosystemsGenetics:
Species, provenance questionsAdaptation to weather extremes
Forest health:Pathogens, pest insects and mammals
Forest soil:Frost and floodingPeatlands: N mobilization due to increasing T?Forest vegetation
3. Use of forest resources in changing climateForest policy actions as climate and energy policy means
METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010
MIL projects: 14 research projectsTheme 1: Phenology
Kari Mielikäinen: Causes and consequences of increasing growth of Finnish forestsRisto Jalkanen: The use of the time series based on the Needle Trace Method, NTM, in climate change studies, and in visualization of tree developmentEero Kubin: Phenology and crop forecasts of forest plants in changing climate
Theme 2: Forest genetics, forest health, forest soilPertti Pulkkinen: Forests 2050Matti Rousi: Adaptability of birches to global climate changeMichael Müller: Adaption to local climate and dispersion potential of some conifer pathogens in EuropeSeppo Neuvonen: The assessment and control of risks caused by forest pest insects in a changing environmentHeikki Henttonen: Impact of climate change on forest damage by mammalsTytti Sarjala: Impact of climate change on C and N transformations in organic soilsTapani Repo: Climate change and tree roots: Effects of soil frost and flooding on tree growthHannu Ilvesniemi: The effects of climate change on the distribution ranges and thestructure of forest vegetation in FinlandHeljä-Sisko Helmisaari: Carbon and nutrient dynamics in forest soil under environmental change
Theme 3: Forest policyJussi Uusivuori: Climate policies and the forest sectorMaarit Kallio: Climate Change - Forests in terrestrial adaptation and mitigation in Europe
METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010
MIL –resources 2007 -
2009METLA Researchers,
months of work
Technical personnel, months of work
Total budget
2007 29 / 155 200 1.5 M€
2008 46 / 208 270 2.135 M€
2009 65 / 287 305 2.545 M€
External funding:
Finnish Academy, EU, foundations, Ministeries, SNS-Nordic Forest Research Co-operation Committee etc.
METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010
MIL –program deliverables:
Publishing:Scientific referred articlesData and reports for decision makers
National and international visibílity:Presentations in meetings, mediaInternational networks (SNS, COST, IUFRO)
Challenge for the last two years:Synthesis, summary papers
METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010
Thank
you
for attention!More
information: Program
leader
Elina Vapaavuori
Elina.Vapaavuori@metla.fi
http://www.metla.fi/ohjelma/mil/index.htm
METLA MIL -Moscow 10.02.2010
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