from 6 billion to 7 billion: how population growth is challenging our world

From 6 Billion to 7 Billion: How Population Growth is Challenging Our World

A Presentation by Robert J. WalkerPresident of the Population Institute

It’s Not How Many People the World Can Contain…..

It’s How Many People the Earth Can Sustain….

And at What Standard of Living….

In the 20th Century World Population Rose from 1.6 Billion to 6.0 Billion

Life Expectancy at Birth More than Doubled in the 20th Century

The World’s Per Capita GDP Soared in the 20th CenturyMeasured in constant 2000 dollars, the

world’s per capital GDP grew from:

$850 in 1900

$8175 in 2000

The World at 6 Billion

It’s a Rapidly Changing World

The World at 7 Billion: What’s changed?

Millennium Development Goals

The Prices of Most Food Commodities have Nearly Doubled

Fuel and Non-Fuel Commodity Prices Have Soared.

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Oil Prices (1980-2011)

Conventional Crude Oil Production has Peaked

In its 2010 World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Administration projected that crude oil output would reach “an undulating plateau” of around 68-69 mb/d by 2020, but it would never again regain “its all-time peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006.”

The Historic Decline in Metal Prices has Been Reversed

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Tin Prices (1980-2011)

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Iron Ore (1980-2011)

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Cotton Prices (1980-2011)

The Ranks of the Hungry have Increased

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Fossil Fuel and Cement CO2 Emissions (Source: Global Carbon Project)

Growth rate1990-1999

1% per year

Growth rate2000-2010

3.1% per year

Growth rate20105.9% yr

Growth rate2009

-1.3% per year

Uncertainty (6-10%)

+-

Population Projections for 2050 are RisingMedium Variant Population Projection: Source:

UN Population Division

1999 Projection: 8.9 billion2011 Projection: 9.3 billion

No Global “Birth Dearth”In 1999: Max Singer of the Hudson Institute

wrote: “50 years from now the world’s population will be declining, with no end in sight.”

T0day: The latest UN projections show world population is rising with no end in sight:

9.3 billion by 2050 (medium variant projection)10.0 billion by 2082 (medium variant projection)Possibly as high as 15.6 billion by 2100

(high variaent projection)

© 2006 Population Reference Bureau

Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions

300 100 100 300300 200 100 0 100 200 300

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Male Female Male Female

80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14

5-90-4

Age

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Age Distribution of the World’s Population

The Decline in Adolescent Pregnancy Rates has StalledNumber of Births per 1,000 Women (ages 15-

19)in the Least Developed Countries: Source: UN Population Division 2010 Revision

1990: 133.3

2000: 116.7

2007: 121.0

High Adolescent Pregnancy RatesReasons:

Growth of the adolescent populationDecline in family planning assistanceLack of access to contraceptivesLimited contraceptive choicesLack of comprehensive sex educationStatus of women and girlsSexual coercion and abuseChild marriage

Child Marriage“82 million girls in developing countries who are now between the ages of 10 and 17 will be married before their 18th birthday.” UNFPA

2050: the Challenges Posed by Population Growth

HungerThere are 950 million hungry people in the

world today.The Food and Agriculture Organization says

world food production will need to increase by 70 percent to keep up with population and more meat-intensive diets.

Food production in the developing world will have to double just to keep up with population.

Severe PovertyRising food prices are pushing people into

poverty. The urban poor spend 50-80 percent of their budget on food.

In 2010 alone, rising food prices pushed 44 million people into severe poverty.

Oxfam International warns that food prices could rise by 120-180 percent by 2030.

Urban SlumsThe size of the urban population in the

developing world is growing faster than the general population.

In 1990, there were an estimated 657 million people living in urban slums. Today there are 828 million.

Water ScarcityWater shortages have already reached crisis

proportions in Western Asia and North Africa.Demand for Water is expected to outstrip

supply by 40 percent within the next 20 years.

Sanitation

Very little progress has been made in improving sanitation in the developing world.

Half of the population in the developing world is not using an improved form of sanitation. That’s 2.5 billion people.

Shortages of Arable LandAgricultural areas have expanded by only five

percent since the 1970s, and the capacity for further conversion is limited.

Much of the potentially arable land that remains is forest.

Biofuels are competing with food producers for arable land.

We are in the midst of a worldwide “land grab” by foreign interests in the developing world.

Loss of topsoilThe FAO estimates that by 2030, 135 million

people may lose their land as result of soil degradation, including 60 million people in sub-Saharan Africa.

Desertification is a major threat to China’s food production.

Rising Energy PricesNo one knows how energy producers will

meet the world’s growing demand for energy. We will need almost 50 percent more energy by 2030.

Rising energy prices are increasing the cost of producing and transporting food.

DeforestationThe rate of deforestation slowed in the past

decade, but there are signs that rate of deforestation may be increasing again.

The world’s rising demand for lumber, palm oil, and soybeans is largely responsible.

Rising Temperatures

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that 2001-10 was the hottest decade on record.

Rising temperatures will curtail crop production in many areas by 10-20 percent.

Rising seas will inundate many rice producing areas in South and Southeast Asia.

Severe WeatherUnless drastic steps are taken to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions, the world will suffer some of the worst effects of climate change.

Climate change experts believe that climate change will result in:

Intensified Droughts Intensified Flooding Intensified Storms

OceansThe annual marine fish catch peaked in 1996

at 83.3. million tons and it has been declining ever since. In 2008 it was 79.5 million tons.

Ninety percent of all large fish populations have disappeared.

Coral reefs are endangered.

Loss of BiodiversityDespite the Convention on Biological

Diversity, the rate of plant and animal extinction is accelerating.

Scientists warns that human activity is causing the “Sixth Mass Extinction.”

Failing StatesThe number of failing states is on the rise.While several factors account for the increase

infailing states, virtually all failing states have high fertility rates that make it more difficult to reduce hunger and poverty.

Of the 20 countries that rank highest on the 2011 Failed States Index, all but one have a total fertility rate in excess of 3.5. More than half have a TFR of 5.0 or higher.

Will the 21st Century Vindicate Thomas Malthus?

7 billion 1.8 billion

10.9 billion

9.3 billion

8.1 billion

Changing Atttitudes and Behaviors through Mass MediaPopulation Media Center uses radio serial dramas (soap operas) to change atttitudes and behaviors:Violence against womenChild marriageFamily planning and reproductive health

Delaying Age of Marriage through Economic IncentivesPopulation Council: Berhane Hewan (“Light of Eve”) project in Amhara region of EthiopiaGirls meet regularly to acquire life-time

health skills.Girls who complete the program receive a

financial reward for completion (e.g. a goat).

8.1 Billion in 2050—How did we get there?

We invested more in youth and adolescents Girls were able to delay their age of marriage Girls were able to stay in school longer Attitudes toward girls and women improved Boys and men treated girls and women with

respect

8.1 billion in 2050—How did we get there?

Men and women, husbands and wives, actually talked about sex and childbearing

Girls and women were empowered Modern contraceptives were widely available Women had a range of contraceptives to choose

from, and Couples had children by choice, not by chance.

8.1 Billion in 2050: What would it mean? Universal access to reproductive health services

became a reality, not just a right. Maternal mortality fell sharply. The number of women dying of unsafe abortions

declined sharply. More mothers lived long enough to see their children

and their grandchildren grow up. Many obstetric fistulas were prevented, and those that

were not could be treated.

8.1 Billion in 2050: What would it mean?

The battle against HIV/AIDS and STIs was won. The level of educational attainment went up, and the

rate of poverty went down. Full gender equality was achieved. Food security was enhanced. Fewer people went

hungry…or starved. Water scarcity became more manageable.

8.1 Billion in 2050: What would it mean?

The gap between energy supply and the essential energy needs of the world was narrowed.

The threat of conflict was, correspondingly, diminished.

Income disparities declined. The gap between North and South narrowed.

Deforestation was slowed, perhaps halted.

8.1 Billion in 2050: What would it mean?

Climate change was mitigated and prospects for adapting to climate change improved.

More plants and animals survived threatened extinction.

We met—or began to meet--the needs of present generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.