francisco marmolejo 12/3/2014 fmarmolejo@ · pdf filefrancisco marmolejo tertiary education...

Francisco Marmolejofmarmolejo@worldbank.org

12/3/2014

1http://www.worldbnk.org/education/tertiary

MSCHE Annual ConferenceWashington, DC. Dec. 3, 2014

Francisco MarmolejoTertiary Education CoordinatorThe World Bankfmarmolejo@worldbank.org

@fmarmole

@fmarmole Email: fmarmolejo@worldbank.org

12/3/2014

It is all relative…

Our beautiful planet in reality is no more than a speck of dust in the universe.

Marco Caceres. Space Analyst

12/3/2014

“When I think about the future… I become scared of the present”

20141994 203420342040

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Where are located Bangladesh, Mexico, Ethiopia, Brazil, Pakistan, Uganda, Nigeria, Vietnam and the Democratic Republicof Congo?

RANK COUNTRY 1950 COUNTRY 2000 COUNTRY 2050

1 China 554.8 China 1,275.2 India 1,531.4

2 India 357.6 India 1,016.9 China 1,395.2

3 USA. 157.8 USA 285.0 USA 408.7

4 Russian Federation 102.7 Indonesia 211.6 Pakistan 348.7

5 Japan 83.6 Brazil 171.8 Indonesia 293.8

6 Indonesia 79.5 Russia 145.6 Nigeria 258.5

7 Germany 68.4 Pakistan 142.7 Bangladesh 254.6

8 Brazil 54.0 Bangladesh 138.0 Brazil 233.1

9 Great Britan 49.8 Japan 127.0 Ethiopia 171.0

10 Italy 47.1 Nigeria 114.7 DRCongo 151.6

11 France 41.8 Mexico 98.9 Mexico 140.2

12 Bangladesh 41.8 Germany 82.3 Egypt 127.4

13 Ukraine 37.3 Philipines 75.7 Vietnam 117.7

14 Nigeria 29.8 Turkey 68.3 Japan 109.7

15 Spain 28.0 Egypt 67.8 Iran 105.5

16 Mexico 27.7 Iran 66.4 Uganda 103.2

Fuente: ONU (2004). World Population to 2300.

World’s most populated countries. 1950-2050

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0 2 4 6 8 10

Developedcountries

Developingcountries

19982050

Source: UN 1998 World Population Report

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Source: United Nations Population Division (2010), World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

Japan 2050: 70 65+ yr. old persons per 100 persons aged 15-65 yr.

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WORLD POPULATION LIVING IN CITIES

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In Norway the average income per capita is $ 149.00 dollars per day, while in Malawi is only $500.00 but per year ($ 1.36 per day).

In other words, three days of average income in Norway are equivalent to almost a year of income in Malawi

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Nearly 20 percent of America’s children–and 13 percent of all Americans–live in poverty.

The Brookings Institution.

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Dominique Moisi.Geopolitics of Emotions (2009)

A more diverse world

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There are more than 5,000 ethnic groups in the world and only 190 countries. In the Sub-Sahara

region exist 1,300 linguistic groups in only 62 countries

Source: Rodger Doyle. Ethnic groups in the world. Scientific American. Sep. 1998.

Tribalism and modernity

Steve Breen. The San Diego Union-Tribune

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Can you tell me about my future?

Hmmm…I would, but I can’t

read Spanish!

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Net Migration (in millions of people). 1960-2010

Source: World Bank (2012). World Databank: Net Migration

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http://conahec.org

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Implications of the global growth in TE

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Challenging the traditional assumption of what is higher education

20141968 2025

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KatieMcAuliffe,DigitalLiberty

Source:IEEESpectrum.Jan.2013.Dataflow.p80

Francisco Marmolejo fmarmole@email.arizona.edu

12/3/2014

A new type of students

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¿Sequential? Multi-task?

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010203040

Source: Market Facts/TeleNation for GTE Directories. USA Today. Sep. 24-98

Pew Internet & American Life: US educators not Net-savvy Aug 14 2002: A new study from Pew Internet & American Life indicates that 78 percent of middle and high school students in the US use the Internet.

However, most American teenagers claim that educators often don’t know how, don’t want, or aren’t able to use online tools to help them learn or enrich their studies.

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I have a netbook, MP3 Players, flashdrive, IPAD… Dad, what did you use in school when you were student?

My brain!!

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Define what a circle is:It is a line connected by two ends making a round figure.

What is Trigonometry?:Device used to measure trigonometers.

GEOMETRY

What are the movements of the heart?: The heart is always in movement. It doesn’t move in the case of corpses only.

Brain:Ideas, after being spoken, go straight to the brain.

THE HUMAN BODY

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Gajaraj Dhanarajan

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Average rate of return to year of schooling is 10.4%

Based on comparable estimates of 545 observations, 131 economies, 1970‐2011 In Latest year available: average rate of return is 9.9%

0 5 10 15 20Rate of return

Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank

12/3/2014

Table 3: Returns to schooling by educational level and region(latest available year between 2000-2011)

Region Primary Secondary Tertiary GDP/pc(PPP 2005)

World 10.3 6.9 16.8 6,719 74Middle East and North Africa 9.4 3.5 8.9 3,645 7

South Asia 9.6 6.3 18.4 2,626 4Eastern and Central Europe 8.3 4.0 10.1 6,630 7

High Income Economies 4.8 5.3 11.0 31,748 6

East Asia and Pacific 11.0 6.3 15.4 5,980 6Latin America and Caribbean 9.3 6.6 17.6 7,269 20

Sub-Saharan Africa 13.4 10.8 21.9 2,531 24

Returns highest at Tertiary Level

Source: Montenegro, C.E. & H.A. Patrinos (2013). Returns to Schooling around the World. The World Bank

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Principal factor of social mobility

More educationleads to:

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Massification

Still asymmetrical access / retention/ graduation

Increasing international student mobility

Revolution in teaching, learning and curriculum

Quality assurance, accountability and qualification frameworks

Financing higher education

The private providers’ revolution

The academic profession

The research environment

Information and communications technology

International trends in higher education

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Biases towards “universities” as the only higher education option persist.

Pathways allowing mobility between technical and vocational institutions and universities are also very limited, if they exist at all.

Quality control and assurance regulations and mechanism are weak

Equity: Clear disparities in access across groups persist.

Limited efficiency and limited engagement with the surrounding community

Insufficient investment in higher education.

Information: Policy and investment decisions are often based on inaccurate, biased, or incomplete information.

Lack of knowledge of job market needs prevents institutions from transparently sharing information about employability, demanded skills, and costs with students.

Weak linkages of the HE work with the agendas of research and innovation, and regional development

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SSA South andWest Asia

Middle East& N. Africa

Central Asia East Asia andthe Pacific

World LatinAmerica and

theCaribbean

Central andEasternEurope

NorthAmerica andWesternEurope

1998 2005 2010

Courtesy of P. Materu. The World Bank

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Source: World Development Report 2013

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72 % of educators

58 % of employers

Source: Mourshed, Farrell, y Barton (2012), Education to Employment: Designing a System that Works.

Hypothesis : the labor market is demanding a combination of skills different to the ones that are

being provided by the educational system

12/3/2014

“Universities won’t survive…higher education is in deep crisis…The college campus won’t survive as a residential institution. Today’s [college] buildings are hopelessly unsuited and totally unneeded”

Peter Drucker, 1997

…or it is just an exageration?

Elliot Masie, President ‐The MasieCenter

12/3/2014

“While the ship is sinking –says the captain – the first priority is to save the crew, next is to avoid problems while the ship continues to sink, the third priority is to repair the ship, and lastly, the fourth priority, if time permits, is to save the passengers”

Arthur Levine, president of Columbia Teachers College

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Continuing doing the sme, but waiting different results

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Significantdevelopments

Theaccreditationsyndrome

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What are the top 3 issues in tertiary education in your region in which the Bank has an opportunity to act?

Quality Assurance/Governance

Employability of Graduates

Financing

Other priorities raised include Equity and Access, Innovation, Focus on Community Colleges

What should the Bank’s priorities be in tertiary education in the next 5 years? *

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%

Diversification in institutional mission of TEIs

Greater focus on TEIs versus governments

Fostering internationalization

Non‐university post‐secondary sector

Articulation btw different types of TEIs and with Secondary Ed.

Innovation in educational delivery models used by TEIs

Developing capacity of TEIs in science and innovation

Equity and access to TE

Role of the private sector in TE

Improving governance

Improving quality assurance

Funding models for TE

Bridging gap between education and employment

* Multiple responses

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Too much emphasis on assurance/compliance.

Still limited evidence on quality

Accreditation as a proxy of the status quo. Hindering innovation?

Perceived failures in some global efforts (AHELO)

The role of rankings

How much autonomy?

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Diversifying options, but leveling the playing field.

Assuring good quality institutions.

Making post‐compulsory education and training equitable and affordable.

Targeting public resources toward programs that yield high social returns.

Using innovative approaches to retain students and ensure employable graduates.

Improving secondary education.

Increasing the autonomy and cost‐efficiency of institutions and the TE systems.

Arming students with information so they make smart choices.

Embracing competition – national and global.

Fostering openness and an evidence‐based culture in tertiary education.

12/3/2014

A priority for “tomorrow”

Marginal

About money and control

Too complex

A good idea, but..

A priority for ”yesterday”

Mainstreamed

About mobility of societies

Means for better education

A critical need

What it may work in one case

There is no magic formula…

…it is not necessarily the best solution in other cases

12/3/2014

For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple,

H. L. Mencken…and wrong.

12/3/2014

“It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.”

“ The trouble with our times is that the future is not what it used to be ”

Paul Valéry

12/3/2014

Francisco MarmolejoTertiary Education Coordinator

The World BankTel. +1 (202) 458‐5927

Email: fmarmolejo@worldbank.orghttp://www.worldbank.org/education/tertiary

Twitter@fmarmole

francisco marmolejo 12/3/2014 fmarmolejo@ · pdf filefrancisco marmolejo tertiary education...

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