foster brown woods hole research center/federal university of acre

The Reason for REDD+ Climate Perturbation in Southwestern

Amazonia

The Road to Copenhagen: Progress and Challenges on Sustainable Development in Chico Mendes‘ Homeland

Foster Brown

Woods Hole Research Center/Federal University of Acre

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Washington, DC,

5 October 2009

REDD+

• “…Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries; and the role (+) of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries…” Bali Action Plan. http://www.globalcanopy.org/themedia/file/PDFs/LRB_lowres/lrb_en.pdf

Acre and contiguous Madre de Dios, Peru and Pando, Bolivia (MAP Region): A disproportional share of mega projects – accelerating Global

Environmental Change (source: M. Steinenger/ NASA)

Beni

CobijaRondônia

Pando

Lago Titicaca

Acre

HIghwayIñapari- Pacifico – US$ 810 millon

UHE St, Antonio3,600 MW

UHE Jirau3,900 MW

UHE Binational3,000 MW

US$ 10 billion

HIghwayGuayaramerin-Yucumo US$460 millon

Puerto Maldonado

4,000 km de Navegable Rivers

Rio Branco

Highway toCruzeiro do SulUS$ 250 millon

Inambari Dam2,000 MWUS$ 4 billion.

Iberia

Climate equation for southwestern Amazonia:

(1) Natural Climate Variability+

(2) Regional Climate Change+

(3) Global Climate Change =

(4) Climate perturbation, examples 2005 and 2006.

(Do we add or do we multiply?)FloodingRio Branco,Acre, Feb 2006

Climate perturbation in 2005 and 2006:

A possible future for southwestern Amazonia?

Meio dia, Acrelândia, 17set05

The Drought of Amazonia in 2005(2008, Journal of Climate, 495-516)

José A, Marengo*, Carlos A, Nobre*, Javier Tomasella*, Marcos D, Oyama**, Gilvan Sampaio de Oliveira*, Rafael de Oliveira*, Helio Camargo*, Lincoln M,

Alves*, Irving Foster Brown***

*CPTEC/INPE, São Paulo, Brazil** CTA/IAE, São Paulo, Brazil

***WHRC/UFAC 6

30Jun05

7

The drought was apparent already in June: “Crisis in water supply – government and municipality fear total

collapse with the drying of the river”

Observed rainfall anomalies product CPTEC/INPE 2004-2005 (Marengo et al. 2008, J. of Climate).

Drought of May-September 2005 >> western Amazonia

Acre

M. Maciel5out05

With the extreme drought, the rain forests changed from being barriers for fire and became

kindling,just needing an ignition source.

9

Focos de calor em 2005 na Regiao MAP NOAA-12, MODIS (Aqua+Terra) GOES (INPE)

Satélites AQUA, GOES-12, NOAA-12 e TERRA, em 2005 na região MAP. Fonte: http://www.dpi.inpe.br/proarco/bdqueimadas

10

Ignition sources in the trinationalMAP Region in 2005

21 September 2005 11

Result: “Acre will declare a State of Emergency”

Fires propagating in rain forests of Acre

>1 km No trails, how to fight these fires?How many firemen are necessary?

12

27Set05

Eastern Acre, Brazil, October 2005,Fire scars and impacted forests>340,000 ha (Pantoja & Brown 2009)

Rio Branco

Xapuri

COSTS• Fire-Impacted Forests

– Acre: > 330,000 ha

– Pando: > 120,000 ha

– Madre de Dios: >> 20,000 ha

• Total: > 470,000 ha.

• If the impact was equal to the fine of US$ 500/ha, then the region became more than US$235 million dollars poorer in environmental services. Implications for REDD.

• Official total damages estimated at US$ 80 million, without including loss of environmental services (AVADAN, Santos 2006)

Four months later: severe flooding in Rio

BrancoGazeta, 17Feb06

From one extreme to another in 2006

13May06 GAZETA p, 1River level below that of

2005.

19Feb06

Rio Branco, flooding

3 months

Foto:F, Brown

(1) Natural Climate Variability

River level in Manaus – function of rainfall in upstream rivers, such as the Juruá and Purus.

Source: Goulding et al. 2003, citedby Alonso et al. 2006.

Acre Region

Manaus

The river level at Manaus in 2005, was only the 6th lowest in 103 years. Note the frequency of droughts at the beginning of the 20th century

Marengo et al (2008) and Cox (2007)

ano

19

Are we prepared for a drought equal to that of 1926 (natural variation without being amplified by

anthropogenic climate change)?

Social vulnerability has grown: urban population of Rio Branco from 20-30,000 to 250,000 (2005), but

the Acre River discharge has apparently decreased.

If we are not prepared, what should we do?

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(2) Regional Climate Change

Dry seasonWater vapor fluxFrom forest

Dry seasonWater vapor fluxFrom pasture

05out05Eastern Acre

14 April 2005 GOES Image

Water vapor and clouds coming from the ocean

“A River in the Air”

Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)

Return via the rivers

www.cptec.inpe.br

rainEvapo-transpiration

Returnvia rivers

Forests

RainEvapo-transpiration

Pasture

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Water transport from evaporation in the Atlantic Oceanduring dry season

Return via rivers

Smoke and water transport from Amazonia to southern South America.

EXPORTS

60% Summer rains of the South

And Southeast

15% AEROSSOLS

(source:Artaxo Neto)

Regional Climate Change: Deforestation in eastern Amazonia could diminish rainfall in western

Amazonia. Maintain forest cover is to maintain transpiration service. (Malhi et al. 2008. Science)

2050BAU

2050Governance

Due to the transpiration service,Acre needs REDD+ in Mato Grosso, Para and Rondonia

Likewise, Paulistas and Argentinians need REDD+ in Acre.

(3) Global Climate Change

IPCC (2007) Working Group 1, Capitulo 6, p. 448

SOHO- 304 nm 04Oct09 07:19http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/

• It isn’t the sun; the greenhouse gas accumulation is the best explanation for the temperature increase in the past 50 years.

•This rate of temperature increase is roughly 20x faster than in other geologic periods.

Droughts such as that of 2005 could become more frequent with an increase in C02

concentrations . Cox et al. (2008) Nature.

This means that forests will be subject to more water stress due to temperature increase and lack of water during the dry season.

What happens? The forests lose carbon during severe droughts . Phillips et al. (2009). Science.

How does REDD+ work when the forests are subject to degradation by climate perturbation?

Illustrative calculation of the impact of the drought in Acre’s forests in 2005.

• Loss from fires (short-term):– ~300,000 ha x 10? tC/ha = ~3(?) million tC liberated

• Loss from increased mortality in drought-affected forests without fire impact– 14 million ha x ~0.5 tC/ha = ~7(?) million tC liberated

• Regrowth could absorb this carbon over time, nullifying the effect….or not.

• Deforestation flux: – 40,000 ha/yr x 100 (?) tC/ha = 4 (?) million tC (2005-2006)

• Fire and water stress are everywhere, not just in Acre.

Is this vulnerability an argument against REDD+?

• To the contrary, it makes REDD+ all the more urgent.

• Need to control fires, develop fire-free alternatives for agriculture.

• Develop early warning systems to reduce risks. • Show that REDD+ is not enough, pressure all

governments and economies to change to a low-carbon emitting mode.

Model results suggest that BAU will lead to more extreme events becoming the rule.

Example of Marengo et al. (2009) for 2070-2100.

More consecutive dry days More consecutive wet days More extreme rains

When it rains, it will likely pour,with long periods of drought.

Observations of Indigenous peoplesFeijó, Acre, Brasil 20-21 March 2009

Preoccupations of the Nova Vida Village. Shanenawa, 20mar09. Current situation: drought, hot and polluted.

REDD+ is only part of the solution.

1. Amazonian forests contain about 100 billion tons of carbon. If a significant fraction of this carbon is released, it will make stabilizing the composition of the earth’s atmosphere even more difficult.

2. The vulnerability of Amazonian forests and their environmental services - carbon uptake and storage, transpiration – makes implementing REDD+ imperative, as well as rapidly reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion.

Observed rainfall anomalies – Sept 2005(Marengo et al. 2008)

Acre

We need to do better for early warning systems for climate perturbations. The May 2005

prediction of Columbia University’s IRI Center missed the site of the drought by 2000 km.

Acre

Acre is already advancing on this topic. Dissemination of fire risk and pollution . State Secretariat of the

Environment - SEMA

Conclusions• Regional deforestation (loss of transpiration services) and global

greenhouse gas accumulation will likely act as steroids for natural climate variability in Acre, unless immediate actions are taken to change Business-As-Usual. At the same time social vulnerability is increasing.

• REDD+ is essential to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation and to minimize carbon loss from forest fires in SW Amazonia.

• It will be much cheaper to avoid anthropogenic climate change than trying to repair its impacts, especially for tropical forests and regional societies.

Thank you for your attention.

Foster Brownfbrown@uol.com.br