floating production systems conference - december 1, 2001 - by james mccaul
Post on 02-Apr-2018
218 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
1/24
Overview of the
Float ing Produc t ion Secto r
International Marit ime Ass oc iates, Inc . Washin gto n, DC, USA Tel: 202-333-8501
Fax: 202-333-8504
E-mai l : imaassoc@msn.com
Websi te: www.imastudies.com
Presentat ion by J ames McCaul at the
18thAnnual Float ing Produc t ion Systems
Conference and Exh ibi t ion
December 1, 2001
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
2/24
The Presentation Will . . .
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 2 - www.imastu dies.com
Profile the current inventory of floaters
Characterize the current order backlog
Identify potential new floater projects
Describe the longer term outlook for newfloaters
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
3/24
154 Floating Production Systems
Now Available
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 3 - www.imastu dies.com
15 Tension Leg Platforms
38 Production Semis
92 FPSO Vessels
9 Production Spars
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
4/24
Where Floating Production SystemsAre Now Operating
International Marit ime As soc iates, Inc. - 4 - www.imastudies.com
2
12
19
6
TLPSEMI
FPSOFS
O
12
1
9
3
TLPSEMI
FPSOSPARFS
O
19
10
2
TLPSEMI
FPSOFS
O
1
TLP
SEMI
FPSOFSO
1 1
12
1
25
TLPSEMI
FPSO
PROBARGEFSO
1
1914
TLPSEMIFPSOFSO
1
12
TLPSEMIFPSOFSO
9
3
TLPSEMI
FPSOFS
O
1
15
TLPSEMI
FPSOFS
O
5 5
TLPSEMI
FPSOFS
O
Not shown are 4 FP SOs and 2 semi s that are off -fi eld and stack ed. Unit s i n the
GOM incl ude 2 FSOs off Mexi co and 1 FSO off Colom bia
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
5/24
Geographic Distribution ofProduction Floaters Now Operating
International Marit ime As soc iates, Inc. - 5 - www.imastudies.com
FPSOs Semis
SparsTLPs
No. Europe
West Africa
Brazil
Asia/Pac
Other
21%
21%
11%
37%
11%
No. Europe
GOM Asia/Pac
13%
80% 7%GOM 100%
No. Europe
Brazil
Asia/Pac
Other
GOM
West Africa
32%
50%
5%
8%
3%3%
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
6/24
30 Year Growth in Number of FloatersHas Been Impressive
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 6 - www.imastu dies.com
Num
berofIn
stalledU
nits
197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003
0
40
80
120
160
FPSO
Semi
TLP
Spar
as of year end
154
42
16
1
1993 to 2003+ 267%
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
7/24
Over the Past 7 Years 101 Floating Production,30 Storage Systems Have Been Installed
International Marit ime As soc iates, Inc. - 7 - www.imastudies.com
- - - - - Where Installed - - - - -
7
19
3
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O
9
1
9
1
TLPSEMI
FPSOSPARFS
O3
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O
1
17
7
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O6
11
3
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O
1
119
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O
4
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O
4 3
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O
1
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O
The FSO in t he GOM i s off Mexico
1
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
8/24
Area
% ofInstallations Type
Northern Europe 26% 19 FPSOs, 7 semis
Gulf of Mexico 19% 9 TLPs, 9 spars, 1 semi
West Africa 18% 17 FPSOs, 1 semi
Brazil 17% 11 FPSOs, 6 semis
Asia/Pacific 16% 15 FPSOs, 1 TLP
Other 5% 5 FPSOs
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 8 - www.imastud ies.com
Production Floater InstallationsOver Past 7 Years
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
9/24
Almost 11 MB/D Oil Processing CapacityNow On Floating Production Systems
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 9 - www.imastu dies.com
14.5 mb/d
at end 2005
On
Order
0.1 mb/d
at end 1983
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
200020
0120
0220
0320
0420
05
1.3 mb/d
at end 1992
+ 32%10.8 mb/d
at end 2003
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
10/24
37 Floating Production Systems and
5 Storage Systems are on Order(as of No vember 2003)
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 10 - www.imastu dies.com
4 TLPs 2 mini, 2 wellhead
25 FPSO Vessels
12 new,11 conversions, 2 upgrades
4 Production Semis all new
4 Production Spars
all new
5 FSOs 1 new, 4 conversions
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
11/24
Where Floating Production and StorageSystems on Order are to be Installed
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 11 - www.imastu dies.com
1
TLPFPSO
SEMI
FSO
2 2
4
TLP
SEMI
FPSO
SPAR
6
TLPSEMI
FPSOFS
O
23
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O
Not shown is 1 speculat ive FPSO hul l (Aoka Mizu) that has been
completed but not yet assigned to a fi eld.
2
10
1
TLPSEMI
FPSO FSO
4
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O
2
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O
1
TLP
SEMI
FPSO
FSO
1
TLPSEMI
FPSO FS
O
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
12/24
Where to beInstalled
% ofOrders Type
West Africa 32% 10 FPSOs, 2 well-TLPs
Gulf of Mexico 22% 2 TLPs, 2 semis, 4 spars
Asia/Pacific 22% 8 FPSOs
Brazil 16% 6 FPSOs
Northern Europe 3% 1 semi
Other 5% 2 FPSO
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 12 - www.imastud ies.com
Production Floaters Now on Order(as of November 2003)
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
13/24
6 Year Trend in Orders forFloating Production Systems
(average order intake per m onth )
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 13 - www.imastu dies.com
76 Mon th
Average
1.3 Unit s
Per Mont h
1.001.40
0.750.750.750.40
1.001.50
0.83
2.002.80
2.251.80
0.50
1.500.751.00
Jun-Sep'97
Oct'97-Feb'9
8
Mar-Jun'9
8
Jul-Oct'9
8
Nov'98-Feb'9
9
Mar-Jul'99
Aug-Nov'99
Dec'99-Mar'0
0
Apr-Sep'0
0
Oct'00-Jan'0
1
Feb-Jun'0
1
Jul-Oct'0
1
Nov'01-Mar'0
2
Apr-Jul'0
2
Aug'02-Jan'0
3
Feb'03-Jun'0
3
Jul'03-Oct'0
3
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
14/24
87 Floating Production Systems arePlanned or Under Study
(as of November 2003)
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 14 - www.imastu dies.com
9
1
5 6 5 41 1
10
6
12 3 11
3
3
10
3
3
W.Africa
GulfofMexico
Brazil
SEAsia
Australia
No.Europe
China
Canada
Other
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
15/24
Projects in the Biddingor Final Design Stage
(as of November 2003)
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 15 - www.imastu dies.com
11
43 3
21
0 01
W.Afri
caBr
azil
South
eastAsia
Austr
alia
Gulfo
fMexico
China
Cana
da
No.Europ
eOthe
r
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
16/24
Some Near Term Projects . . .
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 16 - www.imastu dies.com
Akpo
Agbami
Kizomba C/D
Block G
Usan/Ukot
Roncador P-54
Marlim Leste
Tahiti
Merganser/Vortex
Peng Lai 2
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
17/24
Projects Planned or Under Study(as of November 2003)
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 17 - www.imastu dies.com
1412 12
10
64
31
3
Gulfo
fMexico
Brazil
W.Afri
ca
South
eastAsia
No.Europ
e
Austr
alia
China
Cana
daOthe
r
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
18/24
Some Longer Term Projects . . .
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 18 - www.imastu dies.com
Southern Alaminos Canyon FPSO/shuttletanker or production semi/pipeline?
Block 31 Angola large FPSO
Bonga Southwest large FPSO, maybe jointdevelopment with Aparo
Marlim Sul/Roncador 3 or 4 additional large
FPSOs or semis
Gehem/Ranggas TLP/production bargecombo, like West Seno
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
19/24
The Long Term Outlook for FloaterOrders is Very Favorable
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 19 - www.imastu dies.com
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
20/24
Trend in World Oil andGas Consumption
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 20 - www.imastu dies.com
Source: B P
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
65
75
85
Oil--Mill i
ons
ofB/D
2000
2300
2600
Gas--Bil
lionCubicMeters
Natural Gas
Consumption Growing
2.2% Annually
Oil Consumption
Growing 1.2 %
Annually
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
21/24
Long Term Oil and Gas Demand
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 21 - www.imastu dies.com
IEA expects global energy demand to increase at arate of 1.7% per year over next 30 years
Oil and natural gas to supply 90% of the increaseddemand
Oil consumption is expected to rise at an annual
rate of 1.6%
Gas consumption is expected to double by 2030
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
22/24
Futures Price of Crude($ per bb l)
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 22 - www.imastu dies.com
Futures Price as ofNov. 10, 2003
Futures Price as ofFeb. 14, 2003
Dec'86
Dec'87
Dec'88
Dec'89
Dec'90
Dec'91
Dec'92
Dec'93
Dec'94
Dec'95
Dec'96
Dec'97
Dec'98
Dec'99
Dec'00
Dec'01
Dec'02
Dec'03
Dec'04
Dec'05
Dec'06
Dec'07
Dec'08
Dec'09
0
10
20
30
40$/BBL
Spot Priceof W TI Crude
Source: Wall Street Journal
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
23/24
Our February 2003 Forecast ofRequirements for Floating Production Units
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 23 - www.imastu dies.com
Ac tua l Forecast
Low
Forecast
HighForecast
NumberofUni t
s
197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200620082009
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
as o f year end
**
245
270
-
7/27/2019 Floating Production Systems Conference - December 1, 2001 - by James McCaul
24/24
This Forecast Would Produce Orders for62 to 89 FPUs Between 2003-2008
International Marit ime Ass ociates, Inc. - 24 - www.imastu dies.com
Composition of orders is expected to be
- 60% FPSOs
- 30% spars or TLPs- 10% production semis
These orders would generate $22 to 31 billion capex
In February 2004 we will revisit this forecast andextend the forecast period from 2004 to 2009
top related