fire weather / predictive services john snook north ops ps unit manager iasc at clovis ca – 4/1/08

Fire Weather / Predictive Services

John Snook

North Ops PS Unit Manager

IASC at Clovis CA – 4/1/08

The Predictive Services Units (PSU) at Redding and Riverside each have three to four CWCG- hired meteorologistseach, as well as two Intel staff. There is one other PSU position, which oversees RAWS coordination, NFDRS and WIMS region-wide. The PSU provide products that concentrate mainly on the 2-7 day time frame, but do have products extending out to monthly and seasonal realms. A key mission is to provide local to national-level managers the information they need to maximize the cost-efficient use of available resources.

The California PSUs have positions additional to the national PS program template. These are for the purposes of Smoke Manage-ment and the heavy firefighter training workload in the region. We coordinate with CA Air Resources Board and local air districts, attempting to maximize Prescribed burning opportunities while avoiding adverse impacts on public health.

Predictive Services

The National Weather Service (NWS) is an agency of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Along with Predictive Services, the NWS, operating from 10 offices in 4 states, helps to deliver the R-5 Fire Weather program. The NWS concentrates on operational forecasts and warnings in the shorter term, Days 1-3. To do this, they utilize staffs of about 10 ‘Core’ forecasters, who work rotating shifts to cover all NWS program areas. Each NWS office designates a forecaster as their Fire Weather program leader.

The NWS provides these products and services: Narrative fire weather forecasts (FWFs and ECCDAs), National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) trend forecasts, the Red Flag program, Spot forecast service, some training (primarily S-290), and Met service at Incidents (IMETs). The NWS websites also provide useful climatological tools, doppler radar data, and public warning information..

National Weather Service

Group that provides this product or service to CA Fire Agencies

Product or ServicePredictive Services Unit

(at Redding and Riverside) NOAA / National Weather

Service (at 10 offices)

7-Day Significant FirePotential Product

√

Daily Weather Outlooks(SoCal and NorCal versions)

√

Red Flag Program (Watch,Warning, Cancellation)

√

Fire Weather ForecastNarrative (FWF) / ECCDAs

√

NFDRS Trend Forecasts √Smoke Transport / Stability

Forecast product √

daily Smoke Coordination Conf call at 1300 LT

√

Spot Forecast - Prescribed Burns and WFU

√ √

Spot Forecast - Wildfire √Monthly Outlooks √

Seasonal Assessments √

Incident Service (IMETs) √ (State incidents) √Firefighter Weather training √ (teach any course) √ (mainly S-290)

CONTACT INFORMATION:

Redding Fire Weather CenterOffice: 530.226.2730 FAX: 530.226.2742

http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/index.htmStaff: John Snook, Brenda Belongie, Steve Leach, Basil Newmerzhycky

Riverside Fire Weather CenterOffice: 951.276.6520 FAX: 951.276.6439

http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/weather/index.htmStaff: Tom Rolinski, Matt Shameson and two (?) vacancies

HOURS OF OPERATION IN 2008:

Redding: From about 5/10 to 11/05: 7 days/week 7 am – 5 pm Until about 5/10 and after 11/05: Mon-Fri 7 am – 5 pm

Riverside: From about 5/1 to 10/31: 7 days/week 6 am – 4 pm From about 11/1 to 4/30: Mon-Fri 5:30 am – 3:30 pm

The FW AOP documentsthe provision of the fire weather program jointly from the Predictive Ser-vices and the National

Weather Service.

It has information on a host of topics, with several of these listed

on the next frame.

http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/weather/myfiles/oscc_weather_op_plan.pdf

III

The Fire Weather Annual Operating Plan is updated annually, following an Interagency meeting in March. The new (2008) version will be posted to the PS and NWS websites in May. Below are the main AOP sections:

I. INTRODUCTION

II. CHANGES FOR 2008

III. SERVICE AREAS FOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND PREDICTIVE SERVICE UNITS (some very useful maps in this section)

IV. NWS SERVICES AND RESPONSIBILITIES

V. WILDLAND FIRE AGENCY SERVICES AND RESPONSIBILITIES

VI. JOINT RESPONSIBILITIES

VII. AGENCY SIGNATURES / EFFECTIVE DATES OF AOP

APPENDICES: (Including Appendices covering Forecast parameters,Links to both NWS and PSU forecast/product examples, Coordination callsInfo, PSU and NWS office contact information, and FW Program Assess-ment Team charter.

This is the home page of the National

Predictive Services Unit at NIFC/NICC

http://www.nifc.gov/nicc/

Mid Coast to Mendocino PSA

NorthernSierra PSA

North Coast PSA

NorthwesternMountain PSA

NE California PSA

Eastside PSA

Sac Valley/Foothills PSA

SF BayArea PSA

Predictive Service Areas in northern California

NOPS- ReddingNOPS- Redding

Northern Sierra PSA

Plumas NF

Northwestern Mtns PSA

Shasta-Trinity NF

Klamath NF

Six R

ivers NF

Lassen NF

El Dorado NF

Tahoe NF

Calfire U

nits

Here are a couple of closer-up examples. Notice that the Fire Danger Rating Areas

(FDRA) are the basic building blocks of a PSA.

SOPS- RiversideSOPS- Riverside

in Central and Southern CA

Predictive Service Products:• Seven-Day Significant Fire Potential: Issued daily

throughout fire season in all Geographic Areas, and year-around in CA. Has become a very popular product for many fire personnel.

• Daily Weather Outlook: A tool for quick self-briefings, displaying gridded humidity data and general winds for Days 1 and 2, with a PS-written Synopsis, and 3-7 day FW highlights.

• Monthly Fire Danger / Fire Weather Outlook: A detailed look at the month ahead, issued on the 1st of each new month.

• Fire Season Outlooks: Produced twice a year by both GACC’s, usually a preliminary by May 1st and final by July 1st. (Updated end of Aug if needed)

ADDITIONALLY IN CALIFORNIA:• Site-specific (Spot) forecasts: whenever Smoke dispersion is an issue

• Smoke Transport/ Stability forecast: Produced daily whenever significant burn activity is occurring (most of the year).

http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/index.htm

Conceptual

Model

Simplified

7-Day Significant Fire Potential• The product is broken out for each PSA within a Geographic Area, and

for each of Days 1-7. It combines effects of weather, fuels, and resources.

• Research was done on correlations between past weather (RAWS), fuel dryness levels, & large fire occurrence. Weather models are applied to predict future RAWS weather and its effect on fuel dryness. This leads to prediction of when and where potential for significant and/or large fires is greatest Days 1-7. Lightning and wind events can be added as ‘triggers’.

Significant Weather or Ignition Trigger

Resource Information

High Risk Days

A high risk day is a day where an ignition or significant weather trigger and an appropriate level of fuel dryness combine to create conditions that historically have resulted in a significant fire event for a particular area.

Fuel Dryness Levels

7-Day Significant Fire Potential Product

dddd

Combining Weather, Fuels, and Resources

Here’s anexample from a

windy dayin NOPS

.

3-7 Day Outlook Friday through Tuesday:

Issued: Wednesday Feb. 13, 2008 (a good self-briefing tool)

Northern California Daily Outlook…

http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_outlook.pdf

In reviewing the recent weather, we often include precipitation PON and Temp DFN info

Geographic Area Northern California

Precipitation Outlook

Ranging from Near Normal to Above normal. Forecast percent-of-normal range: 85-140%

Temperature Outlook Near Normal to a little Below Normal, with departures ranging from +1.5º F to -3.0º F.

Fuels and Fire Danger Concerns

For those areas not under snow, the larger size classes of dead fuels had an extended drying opportunity during March. Low elevation annual grasses are expected to remain green through the month, with new grass growth extending to progressively higher terrain as snowpack recedes. With the current conditions, the only concern for elevated fire danger would be with a sustained dry wind, in areas where dead and/or dry 1-, 10- and 100- hr fuels, and/or dormant brush predominates.

Prescribed fire implications

With the dry and mild to warm March weather, much of the mid elevation burn sites have lost snow cover and are drying to the point of availability for underburn operations. Possible wet weather in early April could put this on hold, or even reverse it for a time. However these areas could recover and dry quickly in mid or late April, with the longer daylight hours. Higher elevations and some north aspects should remain snow covered thoughout the month.

Miscellaneous Weather forecast confidence: Precipitation: just 55% Temperatures: 65% Resources: Engine and crew capacity are adequate for initial attack.

WRITTEN FORECAST SUMMARY FOR APRIL 2008:

North Ops April 2008 Outlook

Example of two North Ops monthly Fire Potential maps, one from an Outlook last fire season, and the other ‘hot off the press’

North Ops September 2007 Outlook

Summary of links for routine, California PS Unit products:

7-Day Significant Fire Potential:NOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/Fire_Potential.htmlSOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/outlooks/Fire_Potential.html Daily Weather Outlook:NOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/weather/DailyOutlook.htmlSOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/weather/daily_product/DailyOutlook.html

Monthly Outlook:NOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/outlooks/monthly_outlook.pdfSOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/outlooks/myfiles/psamonth.pdf

Seasonal Outlook:NOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oncc/predictive/outlooks/seasonal_outlook.pdfSOPS – http://gacc.nifc.gov/oscc/predictive/outlooks/myfiles/assessment.pdf

Other products and services provided by CA Predictive Services Units in 2008:

• Briefings daily in fire season, and miscellaneous conference calls on request. We routinely hold conference with the NWS offices on fire season mornings that have either ‘Red Flag’ weather going, IMETs in field, etc..

NEW in 2008 – Available via VTC (and hopefully Web download/playback )

• Training (Fire Weather…all S-series classes e.g. S-290, 390; Smoke-related, e.g. RX-410; Burn boss, e.g.RX-300; NFDRS (S-491); WIMS, ECC sessions; Weather observations)

• Site-specific (Spot) forecasts for prescribed burns where smoke transport is a potential issue. [Redding does 500-1000 of these annually!]

• Smoke Transport /Stability Forecast

• Daily Smoke Coordination Conference call: participants are GACC Met, CARB, burners, and air districts. Call held at 1300 LT throughout the year, as necessary. These have proven to be an excellent forum to discuss ongoing burns, new burns planned, air quality issues, marginal burn days, fuel loadings, etc. When burn location and/or meteorology make it feasible, the PS GACC mets can advocate for our burners in Marginal burn day situations.

• Technical Assistance (WIMS and NFDRS help, RAWS siting visits, other field meteorology assistance, climatology, and other miscellaneous)

A click on our home page

will bring you to this forecastJust click on

‘Daily Smoke Forecast’ in the Smoke Monitoring subsection.

Smoke Transport/Stability Forecast Redding Fire Weather Center 1430 PDT Tuesday February 20, 2007

Discussion for northern California: We are looking at a change in the governing weather pattern, as a low pressure trough is currently forming up in the northeast Pacific. This will bring a cooler, moister, windier weather pattern for the next 5-10 days, with several rain-bearing frontal systems (and snow in the mountains). Smoke dispersion should be improving for many areas each day through Thursday, as steepening lapse rates allow for greater vertical mixing depths, and transport winds become moderate or slightly stronger, mainly from the south to WSW.

NORTH COAST AIR BASIN- COASTAL Wednesday Morning (4 AM)... Mixing Heights: Under 1000 ft. Transport Winds: SE-11 Winds at 2000 ft: SSW-17 4000 ft: SW-22 8000 ft: WSW-48

Wednesday Afternoon (4 PM)... Mixing Heights: 1500 ft. Transport Winds: WNW-11 Winds at 2000 ft: W-14 4000 ft: WSW-19 8000 ft: SSW-40

Thursday Morning (4 AM)... Mixing Heights: Under 1000 ft. Transport Winds: S-10 Winds at 2000 ft: SSW-21 4000 ft: SW-28 8000 ft: WSW-22 ………… OTHER AIR BASIN FORECASTS …………

NE PLATEAU AIR BASIN- SISKIYOU CO Wednesday Morning (4 AM)... Mixing Heights: Under 1000 ft. Transport Winds: SW-12 Winds at 2000 ft: SW-35 4000 ft: SW-47 8000 ft: WSW-50

Wednesday Afternoon (4 PM)... Mixing Heights: Under 1000 ft. Transport Winds: S-20 Winds at 2000 ft: S-35 4000 ft: SW-45 8000 ft: SW-50 ………… MORE AIR BASIN FORECASTS …………

The outlook for the period Friday through Sunday: Skies generally partly cloudy, but mostly cloudy for a time from Saturday p.m. to Sunday morning in the north and northeast sections. A slight chance of showers Friday and Sunday, with an increased chance in between centering on Saturday night. Snow levels only 2500-4000’ Friday, rising slightly the next two days. Good smoke dispersion, with 1000 to 3000’ AGL daytime mixing heights, and moderate (or locally stronger) transport winds.

an example of ourdaily Smoke Transport /

Stability forecast

To the left is a newlook for this product,that we are experi-menting with lately.Tom Rolinski andBasil Newmerzhyckyare the leads on it.

Daily Smoke Coordination conference all:

Redding and Riverside Predictive Services co-host a Conference call at 1300 local time.

Dial: 1-877-874-5440 Passcode: 357238

•These calls are held daily from spring burning season through the fall burning season, and as needed in winter.

•Participants include CARB, the Air districts, burners, and GACC meteorologists from the 2 Predictive Services Units.

•These have proven to be an excellent forum to discuss ongoing burns, new burns planned, air quality issues, marginal burn days, fuel loadings, etc.

Here’s what we try hard to help our burners

avoid, as they work to accomplish the

prescribed burning.

Site-Specific (Spot) Weather Forecasts

·  Have the detail the General forecast lacks

 ·  Can be tailored to the most critical time periods

·  Include the effects of topography:-   Local winds, and windshifts

-  Inversions, and time of dissipation - Slope and aspect considerations

To obtain a Spot forecast, an on-site weather observation

is mandatory!

Observations should be both:

•Representative of the site

•Timely

Relative Humidity Rule of Thumb:

For every 20ºF increase in air temperature, the RH decreases by about half

TEMP DEW PT RH

50º F 50º F 100%

70º 50º 50%

90º 50º 25%

This frame showsthe top half of the Spot Request form

And here is therest of the form

SPOT FORECAST EXAMPLE REDDING INTERAGENCY FIRE WEATHER OFFICE0830 PST Wednesday Nov. 28, 2007Spot Forecast for North Coble burn, Hat Creek RD, Lassen NF

T34N R5E Secs 1,2 and T35N R5E Secs 34,35 Elev 4800-4900’ Flat to North aspects 99-300 ac Fuel: Brush, timber, and slash Procter Creek drainage

Based on weather from Ladder Butte RAWS ending 0718 PST today. 24-hr max/min info: Temps 39/25 RH 95/35/73% Winds mainly NE 5-9 gusts 11-13 mph overnight, but latest ob has NW 6 though peak gust south 14 mph *** NOTE - All forecast winds are 20-ft level (per your request) unless noted otherwise ***

Discussion: High pressure aloft will strengthen today, with NE to east gradient winds in the morning, giving way to predominantly SE breezes this afternoon. Another cool but likely dry low pressure trough will swing from NW to SE across northern CA in two phases from late tomorrow into Saturday morning. SW to West gradient winds could increase some on ridges tonight. High pressure rebuilds some on late Sat. into Sunday, before a more moist and mild Pacific trough moves into northwest CA by late Monday. At this time, it looks like about an 80% chance of rain from that system, but with light totals - probably .10” or less.

Today: Mostly sunny with CWR 0%. Max temps 42-47, with minimum RH 24-32% this afternoon. Wind primarily NE to SE 2-6 gusts 9-11 mph this morning, becoming mainly SE to South 3-7 gusts 10-13 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height will barely reach 1000’ AGL, with transport winds NE or East 5-8 mph this morning, becoming SE to SSW 7-11 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: ………..

Thursday: ………..

Outlook for Friday through Sunday: …………..

Upon request, we do Spots for long-term WFUs. This was Kingsley, MNF in ’06.

The ROMAN program is an excellent way to keep track of what the observations around your PSA are showing. These weather obs can come from a variety of agencies. From the National Forests, they are nearly all RAWS stations.

ROMAN can also provide you a 5-Day Table of Max/Min Temps, RH, or Winds. The example below is the Relative Humidity in CA’s far southern mountains, over the final 5 days of March 2008.

You can find this product on the

Predictive Services ‘Fuels/ Fire Danger’

page, right hand side

Statewide, on Monday afternoon, 3/31/8

Southern CA in Feb ‘07

Online product coming soon – This is not online yet, but regression equation

work to finalize it will be done soon. Russ Gripp and Tom Rolinski, working with CEFA/DRI, are

Predictive Svcs product developers for it.

CEFA has made several formatting improvements in the past 6 months….

This menu used to be oriented vertically

4-km products now extend through 72 hours

Added a time non-mets can read

NEW

NEW – Tahoe Basin area map. 33-hr Forecast of Mixing Heights, Valid 1300 PDT 4/1/08

Ft AGL

CANSAC Transport Winds Valid 1300 PDT 4/1/08

mph

33-hour forecast of Transport Winds, SW Quadrant…. Valid for 1pm on 2/13/08

Specialty map centered on Yosemite, Mixing Heights, 1pm Wed. Feb. 13

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/index.php

NationalWeather

Service’s Western Region

•ECCDAs (ECC Dispatch Area forecasts), found on a new CA NWS FW Web page. ECCDA parts are drawn from the Fire Weather Forecasts (FWFs), which can be found on the same web page•NFDRS trend forecasts for fire season•all wildfire Spot forecasts (and NWS can provide prescribed burn spots also)•Red Flag program (Watches and Warnings)•some Training (especially S-290 classes)•provide IMET service at incidents

PRODUCTS AND SERVICES provided by the NWS in 2008:

Red Flag Programhas three stages:

•FIRE WEATHER WATCH

•RED FLAG WARNING

•CANCELLATION

RED FLAG conditions are a combination of dry fuels and usually either:

Dry lightning (or any significant lightning event coming just after extended hot/dry weather)

OR

Windy, low-humidity weather (For areas westof the Cascade/Sierras these are frequently Northto East Winds, while for the eastside areas, they

tend to be Southwest or West winds).

NWS Fire Weather Forecast Zones

(FWFs)

From the NWS: Emergency Command Center Dispatch Area forecasts: ECCDAs

•These forecasts are put together by the National Weather Service, oneper ECC dispatch area (based onDPAs). The input for ECCDAs comes

from NWS Fire Weather Forecast Zones (FWFs).

Remember, FWFs and ECCDAs are ‘General’ forecasts. This means they will be broad-brushed, and suitable for planning purposes, but not to be

taken as a site-specific forecast.

•This is what our ECCs now use to provide the a.m. and p.m. radio broadcasts to our field fire personnel

•Forecasts are accessed through the NWS Calif Fire Wx webpage

•GACCs (Redding and Riverside) no longer issue daily text forecasts

This page is found at http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/sto/cafw/index.php

ECCDA areas fornorth half of state

ECCDA areas forsouth half of state

Past cool season weather and the 2008 Fire Season

MountainSnowpack (% of normal)

- as of Mar. 1, 2008

The endThe end any Questions?any Questions?