fhwa traveler analysis framework bus trip tables may 9, 2013 don vary, cdm smith krishnan...
Post on 27-Dec-2015
229 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
FHWA TRAVELER ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
Bus Trip Tables
May 9, 2013
Don Vary, CDM SmithKrishnan Viswanathan, CDM Smith
2
Agenda
• Purpose• Data Examined• Methods Explored• Geography• Summary Results
– Base year 2008 – Forecast year 2040
3
FHWA Traveler Analysis Framework
• VMT Forecasting and Analysis Model• Long Distance Passenger Inter-regional Travel Origin
Destination Data• National Travel Model • Long distance passenger travel modal choice model• Freight and passenger integration, and multimodal
analysis
4
Project Objective and Deliverables
• To provide baseline travel information for analyzing projects of regional and national significance, corridors, policy initiatives, interstate commerce, and Federal programs.
• Auto, bus, rail, aviation• Long-distance inter-regional multimodal passenger
travel origin destination matrix for 2008 and 2040• A set of documented and transparent methodologies to
expedite future development
5
Project Team
FHWADaniel Jenkins, Project
Manager
Roger Mingo Associates
Roger Mingo
CDM SmithKrishnan Viswanathan
Don Vary
RSG, Inc.Colin Smith
Bhargava Sana
6
Data Examined• 1995 ATS• 2001 NHTS• California Long Distance Survey
(2011)• Ohio Long Distance Survey (2002-
2003)• 2008 American Bus Association
Motor Coach Survey• 2011 Federal Motor Carrier Safety
Administration Data• Russell’s National Motor Coach
Guide
7
Trip Generation
Age IncomeVehicles
0 1+
Under 18 Under $35,000 0.062 0.097
$35,000-$75000 0.872 0.155
>$75,000 0.868 0.156
18-64 Under $35,000 0.342 0.474
$35,000-$75000 0.619 0.263
>$75,000 0.411 0.151
65 and older Under $35,000 0.679 0.212
$35,000-$75000 1.045 0.190
>$75,000 1.051 0.097Source: CDM Smith and American Travel Survey
Destination Choice
• 1.41 * (LN(HH) + 2 *LN (EMP)) - 2.34 * LN (DISTANCE)
9
Trip Length DistributionBus
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
100 to200
miles
200 to300
miles
300 to400
miles
400 to500
miles
500 to600
miles
600 to700
miles
700 to800
miles
800 to900
miles
900 to1000miles
Morethan1000miles
1995 ATS Bus
Estimated 2008 Bus
Estimated 2040 Bus
To Orlando > 5K Trips
To Los Angeles > 5K Trips
12
Summary Results
Auto Air Rail BusShare 1995 81.3% 16.1% 0.5% 2.0%Share 2008 82.2% 14.5% 0.6% 2.3%Share 2040 80.1% 16.7% 0.6% 2.2%Total Growth (1995 to 2008) 50% 34% 81% 68%
Annual Total Growth (1995 to 2008) 3.2% 2.3% 4.7% 4.1%Total Growth (2008 to 2040) 43% 69% 46% 38%
Annual Total Growth (2008 to 2040) 1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 1.0%
13
Geography
14
Final Products
OD flow data by mode (number of trips by mode) for the identified 226 zones
15
Recommendations and Observations
• The to be released OD data shall be recognized as synthesized data and shall be used as a starting point for any other project and program.
• Additional verification and analysis are strongly recommended.
• New national comprehensive passenger flow OD data survey shall be conducted.
• FHWA is going through its review and possible enhancement on bus and geography data. Data should be released by the end of the summer.
16
Thank you!
top related