factors & predictors of life expectancy -...

Factors & Predictors ofFactors & Predictors ofLife ExpectancyLife Expectancy

Marissa NeillyMarissa Neilly

ObjectiveObjective To research and better understand To research and better understand

what the predictors of life what the predictors of life expectancy areexpectancy are

Hypothesis: levels of nutrition and Hypothesis: levels of nutrition and healthcare are the most important healthcare are the most important factors or predictorsfactors or predictors

Global Life Expectancy OverviewGlobal Life Expectancy Overview

0200,000400,000600,000800,000

1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002,000,000

Number of People(X1000)

30-35

35-40

40-45

45-50

50-55

55-60

60-65

65-70

70-75

75-80

80-85

Life Expectancy (Years)

Global Life Expectancy Frequency Distribution(192 countries, 6.3 billion total population)

Global Life Expectancy Overview Global Life Expectancy Overview Cont…Cont…

NutritionNutrition

Relationship Between Life Expectancy and Nutrition

y = 0.0182x + 13.214R2 = 0.6003

0102030405060708090

1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Nutrition- Kilocalories/person/day

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

HealthcareHealthcare

Relationship Between Healthcare and Life Expectancy

y = 8.2748Ln(x) + 27.683R2 = 0.7388

0102030405060708090

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

# of Physicians per 100,000 people

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

Healthcare Cont…Healthcare Cont…

y = 0.1896x + 45.422R2 = 0.4835

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

# of Physicians per 100,000 people

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

y = -7E-05x + 75.088R2 = 4E-06

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

# of Physicians per 100,000 people

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

Water QualityWater Quality

Relationship Between Water Quality and Life Expectancy

y = 0.8961x + 13.832R2 = 0.4099

020406080

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Access to Clean Water Index Number 0-100; lower scores indicate water scarcity and poor water provision

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

Income Income Relationship Between Income and Life Expectancy

y = 0.0007x + 56.178R2 = 0.447

0102030405060708090

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

Income Per Capita

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

PollutionPollutionRelationship Between Pollution and Life Expectancy

y = 0.6874x + 62.913R2 = 0.0701

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10 15 20

Amount of CO2 Emmisions Per Capita

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

EducationEducation

Relationship Between Education and Life Expectancy

y = 2.7302x + 32.135R2 = 0.4892

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 5 10 15 20

Education- Average Length of Schooling (Years)

Life

Exp

ecta

ncy

Variable Country (X) ValuePredicted Life

ExpectancyReported Life

ExpectancyDifference

(years)

Kilocalories/day per capita

Zambia 1890 45.2 32.4 12.8

Swaziland 2365 56.5 34.4 22.1

Dominican Republic 2308 55.4 66.7 11.3

Romania 3361.8 74.4 70.5 4.1

Netherlands 3374.1 74.6 78.3 3.7

Czech Republic 3064.8 69.7 75.4 5.7

Healthcare(Physicians per

100,000)

Zambia 6.9 43.7 32.4 11.3

Swaziland 17.6 51.4 34.4 17

Dominican Republic 188 71 66.7 4.3

Romania 188.7 71 70.5 0.5

Netherlands 329.1 75.7 78.3 2.6

Czech Republic 343.4 76 75.4 0.6

Education (average number of years in school per capita)

Zambia 7 51.2 32.4 18.8

Swaziland 10 59.4 34.4 25

Dominican Republic 12 64.9 66.7 1.8

Romania 12 64.9 70.5 5.6

Netherlands 16 75.8 78.3 2.5

Czech Republic 14 70.4 75.4 5

Income (International monetary units per working male per year, 000’s)

Zambia 1041 47.9 32.4 15.5

Swaziland 7227 64 34.4 29.6

Dominican Republic 9694 66.5 66.7 0.2

Romania 8311 65.2 70.5 5.3

Netherlands 38266 77.9 78.3 0.4

Czech Republic 20370 72.6 75.4 2.8

ConclusionsConclusions The best predictors for life The best predictors for life

expectancy are:expectancy are:• NutritionNutrition• HealthcareHealthcare• IncomeIncome• EducationEducation

This information can be used to This information can be used to improve livesimprove lives