"facilitating decision-making meeting for an uncertain future" by john lesko

A N U N C E R TA I N F U T U R EFA C I L I TA T I N G D E C I S I O N - M A K I N G M E E T I N G S F O R

Presented by John Lesko, CPF, at the MAFN DC series workshop held on January 31, 2014.

2

FA C I L I TAT I N G D E C I S I O N - M A K I N G M E E T I N G S I N T H R E E B R O A D C AT E G O R I E S

• Trend Analyses

• Expert Judgment

• Multi-Option Analyses

3

W I T H AT L E A S T T W O T O O L S O R

T E C H N I Q U E S D E M O N S T R AT E D

F O R E A C H C AT E G O R Y.

T R E N D A N A LY S E S

• Data Mining

• S-Curves

4

5

6

7

8

9

Why outlaw social media? Harness its power.

10

11

12

!

"I haven't failed. I've just found

10,000 ways that won't work."

!

- Thomas Edison

13

E X P E R T J U D G M E N T

• Interviews & Polling

• Idea Generation & Nominal Group Technique

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

M U LT I - O P T I O N A N A LY S E S

• Explore Future Scenarios

• Role Playing Simulations

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

A S S U M E T H E B E G I N N E R ' S M I N D

I N R O L E P L A Y I N G & S I M U L A T I O N

34

– N I E L S B O H R , N O B E L P R I Z E I N P H Y S I C S 1 9 2 2

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.”

35

“The way to get good ideas is to get lots of ideas, and throw the bad ones away.”

– L I N U S PA U L I N G , N O B E L P R I Z E I N C H E M I S T R Y 1 9 5 4 N O B E L P E A C E P R I Z E 1 9 6 2

36

“We learn best during moments of enjoyment.”

– R A L P H S M E D L E Y

“I have fun with ideas; I play with them.”

– R AY B R A D B U R Y

37

“The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

– P E T E R D R U C K E R

38

F O R M O R E I N F O R M AT I O N

• Keeping Abreast of Science and Technology by Bradford Ashton and Richard Klaven's (Battelle Press, 1997)

• The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas Kuhn (University of Chicago Press,1970)

• Technology Exchange in the Information Age by John Lesko, Phil Nicolai, and Michael Steve (Battelle Press, 1998)

• A Managers Guide to Technology Forecasting and Strategy Analysis Methods, Stephen Millett and Edward Honton (Battelle Press, 1991)

• The Art of the Long View by Peter Schwartz (Doubleday,1997)

• Visit www.JohnLesko.Biz and find my blog to download these slides.

39

40

J O H N @ J O H N L E S K O . B I Z !

5 7 1 - 2 2 9 - 3 2 4 6