f uture & e merging t echnologies in the i nformation s ociety t echnologies programme of e...

Future &

Emerging

TTechnologiesechnologiesin the

IInformationnformation

Society

Technologies programme of

European

Commission

Future &

Emerging

TTechnologiesechnologiesin the

IInformationnformation

Society

Technologies programme of

European

Commission

Ralph Dumralph.dum@ec.europa.eu

Complex systems research funding Complex systems research funding in European Commissionin European Commission

Why funding complex systems research?

Moreis different:Interactionsdetermine

system behaviour

Social systemsLi

ving

sys

tem

s

Large scale artificial systems

From individual to collectives:The Internet - P2P systemsThe cell - The brainStock marketCulture - NormsAnt colonies - EcosystemsThe climate

Are there general organisational and functional principles

for such systems?

Can we design/build better

functioning systems based on such understanding?

Why funding complex systems research?

Moreis different:Interactionsdetermine

system behaviour

Social systemsLi

ving

sys

tem

s

Large scale artificial systems

From individual to collectives:The Internet - P2P systemsThe cell - The brainStock marketCulture - NormsAnt colonies - EcosystemsThe climate

Are there general organisational and functional principles

for such systems?

Can we design/build better

functioning systems based on such understanding?

Example of a FET funded projectExample of a FET funded projectSelf-organising semantics in embodied agentsSelf-organising semantics in embodied agents

Three SONY AIBOs paying attention to an object

Interacting swarm-bots

Can ‘human-like’ language arise in communicating embodied robots ? What are the prerequisites for developing communication?Grammar combinatorial systems

FET project: ECAGENT

Example of FET funded projects:Internet -unbounded world of information

‘‘The Internet is the most complex artificial The Internet is the most complex artificial computational artefact ever created by man. computational artefact ever created by man. It evolves in It evolves in absence of any central controlabsence of any central control guided by the economic interests of guided by the economic interests of participantsparticipants’ (Papadimitriou 2001)’ (Papadimitriou 2001)

Internet is ever growing:

Nodes are constantly

added and removed

An Expanding universe

FET projects:EVERGROWDELIS

Funding of complex systems: Funding of complex systems: EC framework/national programmesEC framework/national programmes

EC Funding within ICTEC Funding within ICT (directorate for information & media)(directorate for information & media)

40Million Euros – FET40Million Euros – FET EC Funding outside ICTEC Funding outside ICT (directorate for research) (directorate for research)35 Million Euros - NEST35 Million Euros - NEST National funding:National funding: EPSRC (10Mpounds), CNRS…… EPSRC (10Mpounds), CNRS…… Coordination activitiesCoordination activities: ONCE-CS.net: ONCE-CS.net

Outlook EC 7Outlook EC 7thth framework programme: framework programme: Complex systems science for socially intelligent ITComplex systems science for socially intelligent IT Complex systems ideas taken up in many areasComplex systems ideas taken up in many areas

What does all this have to What does all this have to do with economics ?do with economics ?

IT drives a novel set of transformations:What consequences for society and business?

Convergence ofSystems

TransportationThe ‘physical’

InternetThe InternetInformation

unbound

Economy

Eco systemSustainability

Power gridsThe ‘energy’ Internet

Economy

Media

From Individual to Mass and back

‘Social computing’ or Anarchy

-From centralised media/telecoms to P2P participatory Media-Online diversity versus cultural diversity

Societies of minds Are Wikipedia, Google, e-bay … ‘social’ cognitive tools?

Mass self-communication Do blogging, podcasting … lead to ‘after Gutenberg’ era?

Towards an information science of social processesBridging human and computational processes

Hum

aniti

es

Soci

al sc

ienc

es

Economics

Computer

science

Data + Models +Computation

Agent-based/ behavioural economics

AI Interfaces

Formal modelsServices

Services in the large:How to manage millions ofonline services?

Thank youAnnexes

Annexe:Three signatures of complexity

• Emergence: Self-organisation - Collective behaviour • Multiple levels of description & operation: ‘micro to macro’ ‘Complex systems often show simple global behaviour’ Quarks Bulldozer

• Input and output not proportional: ‘small change -big effect’• Positive Feedback loops• Extreme events dominate the mean: cascading failures, crashes…

Existence of multiple equilibria:Existence of multiple equilibria: Systems can evolve along several paths – no global optimumSystems can evolve along several paths – no global optimum Role of prediction? (experiment versus simulation)Role of prediction? (experiment versus simulation)

Sensitivity to parameters

‘More is different’

‘‘Pool of possibilities’Pool of possibilities’