#exportnation - brookings · centerstate ceo @centerstateceo amy liu ... source: international...
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#ExportNation
CenterState CEO@CenterStateCEO
Amy Liu@Amy_Liuw
Metro Program@BrookingsMetro
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Syracuse, NY / April 4, 2012Metropolitan Policy Programat BROOKINGS
THE CENTERSTATE NEW YORK EXPORT PLANA New Strategy to Grow Jobs and the Economy
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The U.S. economy is undergoing a structural change, and it requires a structural response
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Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Current Employment Statistics (CES), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW); Moody's Analytics Estimates
1990Q2 1993Q2 1996Q2 1999Q2 2002Q2 2005Q2 2008Q2 2011Q2
1990-91 Recession 2001 Recession Great Recession
137.4 million
115.8 million
The Great Recession Was a Structural Recession, Not a Cyclical One
Number of People Employed in the U.S.
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98 percentincremental job growth between 1990-2008 from non-tradeable sectors
The Core Problem: The Bulk of U.S. Growth Came from Non-Tradeable Sectors
Source: Michael Spence, “The Evolving Structure of the American Economy and the Employment Challenge,” Council on Foreign Relations, 2011.5
21.4%BIC Countries
2010
Global GDP
20.2%US
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010; UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009
The Other Big Shift: Growth Markets Are Increasingly Located Outside of the U.S.
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29%BIC Countries
2016
Global GDP
18.3%US
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010; UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009
The Other Big Shift: Growth Markets Are Increasingly Located Outside of the U.S.
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29%BIC Countries
2016
Global GDP
18.3%US
Global Metro Population
2009
50%
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010; UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009
The Other Big Shift: Growth Markets Are Increasingly Located Outside of the U.S.
6
29%BIC Countries
2016
Global GDP
18.3%US
Global Metro Population
2030
60%
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010; UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009
The Other Big Shift: Growth Markets Are Increasingly Located Outside of the U.S.
6
29%BIC Countries
2016
Global GDP
18.3%US
Global Metro Population
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010; UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009
The Other Big Shift: Growth Markets Are Increasingly Located Outside of the U.S.
2050
70%
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Source: OECD
$ trillionglobal middle class consumption in 2000
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The Other Big Shift: Growth Markets Are Outside of the U.S.
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Source: OECD
$ trillion31global middle class consumption in 2020
The Other Big Shift: Growth Markets Are Outside of the U.S.
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The winners in the next economy will be those who maximize global assets and
tap new opportunities
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Leaders Will Innovate in Manufacturing and Services
Total U.S. Manufacturing
2.3%
1.4%
Employment Gains (2009Q4-2011Q3)
Source: Howard Wial, forthcoming , “Why Manufacturing Matters,” Brookings.9
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, International Transactions Accounts, 2010
Leaders Will Innovate in Manufacturing and Services
$365
ServiceImports
ServiceExports
$518
US Service Trade2010, Billions
$153 billiontrade surplus
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2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
690.9671.6623.8
InternationalStudent Enrollment
Thousands
723.3
2010/11
Leaders Will Innovate in Manufacturing and Services
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723.3
2010/11
education exports$21.2 billion
InternationalStudent Enrollment
Thousands
Leaders Will Innovate in Manufacturing and Services
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$53.9 billionclean economy exports
NationalEconomy
$10,392
Export IntensityYearly Export Earnings per Job
$20,124
Clean Economy
Source: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011) and Moodyʼs Economy.com
Leaders Will Invent and Deploy Clean Economy Products and Services
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Highest Performing MetrosLowest Performing Metros
Economic Performance2010-2011Source: Istrate, Berube & Nadeau,
“Global MetroMonitor 2011”14
Source: Brookings, Kati Suominen, “U.S. Growth Capital: Americaʼs Runway to the World” (2011)
Going Global Pays Off for Small and Medium Enterprises
Non-Exporting
SMEs
7%
Exporting SMEs
37%
U.S. Firms Revenue Growth(2005-2009)
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Good news: CenterState NY is acting with intention to excel in the next economy
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CenterState NY Is One of Four Leaders Adopting a Metropolitan Export Initiative
Los Angeles
Syracuse/Central NY
Minneapolis-St. Paul
Portland
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Source: US Department of Commerce Press Release, July 12, 2010
Exporting Is an Unnatural Act
1%U.S. companies that export
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Metro Export Plans Matter
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CenterState NY is an under-exporter, but there are positive prospects for growth
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The Syracuse Metro Area Has a Small Export Economy
Source: Istrate and Marchio, “Export Nation 2012,” Brookings. 2012.
$3.3 billionSyracuse’s export volume, 2010 (Rank 72nd)
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Service Exports Represent a Growth Opportunity for Syracuse
Source: Istrate and Marchio, “Export Nation 2012,” Brookings. 2012.
Goods
19.2%
Export Growth2003-2010
60.1%
Services
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International Students Can Help Drive the Region’s Services Exports
Source: Institute of International Education.
3,291number of international students in Syracuse, 2009 (Rank 32nd)
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Syracuse, NY / April 4, 2012Metropolitan Policy Programat BROOKINGS
THE CENTERSTATE NEW YORK EXPORT PLANA New Strategy to Grow Jobs and the Economy
24
#ExportNation
CenterState CEO@CenterStateCEO
Amy Liu@Amy_Liuw
Metro Program@BrookingsMetro
25
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