exploring the change of frequency in the jobseekers signing regime; do weekly work search review...
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Exploring the Change of Frequency in the Jobseekers
Signing Regime; Do Weekly Work Search Review Meetings
Result In Improved Employment Outcomes?
Mark Langdon and Simon Clay
Department for Work and Pensions
10 September 2015
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What we aim to cover
• An evidence summary on the impact of the Fortnightly Work Search Reviews (WRS).
• An overview of a trial with JSA claimants comparing the impact of two JSA signing regimes and;
• An overview of the early analysis.
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What does DWP do?“The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) is responsible for
welfare, pensions and child maintenance policy. As the UK’s biggest public service department it administers the State Pension
and a range of working age, disability and ill health benefits to over 22 million claimants and customers”
Our priorities are:• helping to reduce poverty and
improve social justice• helping people to find and stay
in work• enabling disabled people to
fulfil their potential • helping people save more for
their retirement through workplace pensions and making the State Pension simpler and fairer
• recognising the importance of family in providing the foundation of every child’s life
• improving services to the public by providing value for money and reducing fraud and error
• Working Age Benefits costs the Tax Payer £24.6bn
• Of which £5.3bn is JSA (Unemployment Benefit)
2013/4 financial statement
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The fortnightly WSR has been a core component of the UK Government Active Labour Market policy for many years…
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But it has transformed from this…
… to this…
The Jobcentre Plus support offer is effective, supporting many claimants into work.
JSA off-flow 16-64
100.0%
56.0%
17.8%
8.4%5.6%
12.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Full Item 0-13 Weeks 13-26 Weeks 26-39 Weeks 39-52 Weeks(18-24's move towork programme)
Still on after 52weeks (25+ move
to workprogramme)
Duration on JSA
% o
f C
laim
an
ts
June 11 - 12
The majority of claimants leave JSA within 13 weeks. The Fortnightly WSR is a key component of that support in those early weeks…
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Different variations of the JSA signing regime were trialled. These trials and their finding are summarised as follows:• Exemption of ‘signing’ for the first 13 weeks, with a random call-in
for the first 11 weeks of the JSA claim. Participants spending an additional 6.1 days on JSA.
• Exemption of ‘signing’ for the first 7 weeks, with a random call-in for the first 5 weeks of the JSA claim. This led to participants spending an additional 5.8 days on JSA.
• Fortnightly telephone ‘signing’, with a random call-in for the first 13 weeks of the JSA claim. This led to participants spending an additional 6.6 days on JSA.
• A shortened WSR, but still at fortnightly frequency No significant impact was observed.
• Group signing, but still at fortnightly frequency No significant impact was observed but the sample sizes were small.
Previous Research on the Work Search Review… a series of experiments (2005-6)
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• People will stay on JSA for longer if there is no ‘Signing’ Regime
• The impact was larger for men than it was for women
• The duration of the WSR did not matter
• Rather, it is the face to face element of the WSR that leads to more rapid benefit exit
So what did this show…
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• From April 2014 - 50% of JSA Caseload will have Weekly WSRs
• Work Coach (WC) discretion will determine which Claimants undertake Weekly WSRs
• The number of the Weekly WSR is also at the discretion of the WC
• JCP Offices are funded and resourced to ensure the capacity to deliver Weekly WSRs for 50% of JSA Claimants
• An new trial to test the impact of the change
A new policy… a new opportunity
Does increasing the frequency of the Work Search Review increase the JSA benefit
off-flow rate?
The Trial…Addressing two key questions
What Works for Whom? Which claimants are most likely to be helped by
weekly and fortnightly Work Search Review meetings?
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The Trial…JCP OFFICES
27 across UKEligible Population:
Those individuals making a new Claim
for Job Seekers Allowance (JSA)
Target Sample Size
27,000 (Achieved 26,006)
Recruitment between 22nd September 14
and 19th Feb 15.
Refusal Rate For Survey
Completion:
10%
Excluded from the trial;• Work Programme Returners• Those with history of non-compliance with
the JSA regime• Those exempt from fortnightly signing• Not considered to be capably of providing
informed consent
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The Trial Process…
New JSA Claimant Interview with JCP
Work Coach
Interview Conducted as normal – about
2/3 through the Work Coach introduces the
survey data collection tool
(requests claimant to consent to complete the survey and allow data matching with DWP Administrative
data
Claimant Agrees - completes the
survey
Work Coach completes their questions in the
survey
Claimant Declines the survey
Random Allocation
Algorithm informs the Work Coach of the claimants Signing Regime
Survey Tool automatically encrypts and emails the
record of Claimant consent, the survey data and the trial arm allocation. (All records
are then automatically deleted from the Work Coaches IT system)
Intervention Group
Claimant undertakes weekly signing for a block of 13 weeks
Control GroupClaimant undertakes Fortnightly signing for a block of 13 weeks
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An overview of the survey tool
Exclusions ConsentClaimant questions
Advisor questions
Assignment
In general, all new claimants to JSA were
included.
Where claimants must be excluded;
Those escaping domestic violence
Those who are not able to give informed
consent, or;
Those, who would be required to attend a
JCP office on a more frequent basis – in line with Business As Usual
practice.
We collected informed consent from claimants
to collect information from them for research
purposes
WC read the statement to the claimant and ask whether they agree to
this.
Those who do not consent are still part of the trial but won’t have data collected about
them.
A response must be given for all questions, but the claimant may opt for ‘prefer not to
answer’
WC read out the question to the
claimant, and then the claimant fill in their
answer
WC then turn their screens away from the
claimant to answer their questions confidentially
Once all questions answered, the tool
assigns the claimant to Weekly or Fortnightly WSR for 13 weeks. It
emailed data to the analytical team.
Advisers then inform the claimant of the frequency by which
they will need to attend the JCP office.
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The Trial Management…
The Trial Team undertook the
following…
Developed the Guidance Notes for JCP Staff
Identified a SPOC for each site – and set up an induction day for them.
On site training for all 27 offices
Performance Dashboard - weekly
Weekly SPOC meetings to feedback on performance, deal with issues and questions and to share experiences
Each site visited, at least once, during live running. Observed the process in action to ensure compliance with the trial design.
Feedback to sites on individual Work Coach performance
A trial Newsletter emailed to all Work Coaches and Managers involved in the Trial
Semi-formal interviews with staff
The Analysis
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Achieved Sample Size
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WeeklySigning
Fortnightly signing
Claims 12,724 13,282
Claimants 12,197 12,647
The total sample size was 26,006 claims to JSA made by 24,844 claimants (some of whom made two or more claims in the trial period).
Claimants were put into the weekly signing or fortnightly signing groups depending on whether the last three digits of their National Insurance Number (NINO) were between 000 and 499 or between 500 and 999.
Analysis
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The effects of weekly signing…To see whether weekly signing has an effect on the time spent on benefit, a straightforward technique is to plot the percentage of claimants still on benefit as a function of the number of days after their claim.
Does signing regime have an effect on time on benefit?
0
50
100
-100 0 100 200Days after claim
% o
n b
en
efi
t
Fortnightly
Weekly
-6
-4
-2
0
2
-100 0 100 200
Days after claim
Ch
an
ge
in
% o
n
be
ne
fit
mo
vin
g t
o
we
ek
ly s
ign
ing
…yes – about four days less on benefit on average
Does signing regime have an effect on time on benefit?
So what does this mean?
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By around two weeks the percentage of the weekly signing group still on benefit is around 2 percentage points lower than those in the fortnightly signing group.
This difference is statistically significant from around a week after claim, but there was no statistically significant difference before the claim.
From this we can conclude that there was no significant difference between the benefit-related behaviour of the weekly and fortnightly signing groups before their claim, and that weekly signing has a significant effect on reducing the time spent on benefit compared to fortnightly signing.
Sub Group Analysis – which claimants respond most positively to weekly WSR’s
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• Variables that appear to have an effect• % of time spent in employment• % time spent on benefit• living arrangements (particularly
partners)• Disability
Early Analysis – treat with caution
Conclusion
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• At this point, results should only be considered preliminary because there has not been enough time for all claimants to flow off benefit.
• Weekly signing appears to produce a reduction in time on benefit of four days for the population at large.
• It is possible to choose a segment of around half the sample for whom the reduction in time on benefit is six days.
• We are continuing to work on the segmentation model.
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Thanks for your attention
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