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Barking dogs seldom bite?Trend analyses of Islamic State main written propaganda outlet
What can we predict?
EXPLORATIVE TREND ANALYSIS OF ISLAMIC
STATE’S PROPAGANDA MACHINE
Thomas Frissen (@thomfrissen) & prof. Dr. Leen d’Haenens (@leendhaenens)
Institute for Media Studies, KU Leuven
• Timeline
• Descriptives and statistics
• Theoretical lens
• First explorations
• Implications & Future studies
Timeline
• Timeline
• Descriptives and statistics
• Theoretical lens
• First explorations
• Implications & Future studies
57,197
72,548 76,641
111,198
70,345
154,981
188,680179,595 178,722
232,174
191,997
233,011
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Mean total characters
β= 0,938, t(244) =42,387, p <0,000)
R2 = 0,880, F(1,244) = 1796,69, p < 0,000
4.59 5.86 0.31 9.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.05 4.60
72.34
0.00 0.00 0.00000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Issue 1
4.96 0.00 7.36 5.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.39 3.94
80.10
0.00 0.00 0.00000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Issue 2
10.95 0.00 12.68 4.79 0.00 3.26 0.00 9.07 4.39
54.87
0.00 0.00 0.00000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Issue 3
6.8916.02
6.89 2.54 0.00 0.00 8.92 12.66 0.00
36.43
9.66 0.00 0.00000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Issue 4
4.05 0.00
47.93
5.63 0.00 0.00 0.00
19.22
0.00
23.17
0.00 0.00 0.00000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Issue 5
3.22 3.86 1.87 3.16 0.00 0.0016.73
10.50 0.00 0.81 0.00
59.86
0.00000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Issue 6
2.99 7.14 10.79 1.28 9.94 8.73 10.25 10.78 3.03 10.61
27.42
0.00 0.00000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Issue 7
5.75 0.00 0.00 12.88 5.27 2.25 9.93 8.90 3.18
46.59
0.00 8.43 0.00000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Issue 8
2.22 1.06 1.87 8.18 11.68 3.63
26.54
13.13 11.18 12.4815.57
3.65 0.00000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Issue 9
2.60 0.00 0.00 2.02 11.19 2.70 10.70 6.94 8.61
21.2124.63
18.40
0.00000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Issue 10
4.80 4.37 0.00 6.08 6.97 4.7916.76
6.88 10.4117.50
25.40
7.95 0.00000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Issue 11
5.17 7.68
22.62
7.52 8.83 4.6914.34
10.98 8.26
44.31
18.5423.71
0.00000.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
Issue 12
72.34
80.10
54.87
36.43
23.17
0.81
10.61
46.59
12.48
21.2117.50
44.31
0.00 0.00 0.00
9.66
0.00 0.00
27.42
0.00
15.57
24.63 25.40
18.54
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Religious versus political Justification versus
Religious background Political background/justification
eβ= 0,860; β = -0,150; SE=0,042; p < 0,000
eβ= 1,259; β = 0,230; SE=0,114; p < 0,000
β= -0,206, p <0,623 ; R2 = 0,477; F(2,131) = 61,688, p < 0,000 β= -2,388, p <0,000 ; R2 = 0,836; F(2,131) = 339,759, p < 0,000
• Timeline
• Descriptives and statistics
• Theoretical lens
• First explorations
• Implications & Future studies
Bandura, A. (2002). Selective Moral Disengagement in the Exercise of Moral Agency. Journal of Moral Education, 31(2), 101–119
• Timeline
• Descriptives and statistics
• Theoretical lens
• First explorations
• Implications & Future studies
12.86
21.43
12.86 11.43
2.86 5.71
15.71 17.14
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Issue 1
10.71
28.57
0 5.36 3.5710.71
37.5
3.570
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Issue 2
8.46
19.23
0.77 7.6912.31
2.31
43.08
6.150
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Issue 4
9.57
26.96
0 6.09
13.91
0
38.26
5.220
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Issue 6
11.89
36.76
1.62 5.959.73
3.78
26.49
3.780
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
issue 8
17.22
29.8
0 4.64 7.95 3.97
29.8
6.620
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Issue 10
8.27
13.95
0.78 3.62 2.33 0.52
65.63
4.910
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Issue 12
• Timeline
• Descriptives and statistics
• Theoretical lens
• First explorations
• Implications & Future studies
Thank you very much for your attention!Thomas Frissen (@thomfrissen) & prof. Dr. Leen d’Haenens (@leendhaenens)
Institute for Media Studies, KU Leuven
Sources: amongst others, Dabiq 1, Dabiq 4, Dabiq 11, Dabiq 12, Dabiq 13. Downloaded from www.jihadology.net
Please cite as:
Frissen, T., d'Haenens, L. (2016). Trend Analysis of Dabiq: Islamic State’s Propaganda Machine and its Concurrent Strategic and Military Deployments in Iraq and the Levant. Etmaal van de Communicatiewetenschap. Amsterdam, 04-05 February 2016.
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