ercot load research sample to profile comparison july 24, 2006 busnodemcoast reflecting prospective...
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ERCOTERCOTLoad Research Sample to Load Research Sample to Profile Comparison Profile Comparison
July 24, 2006
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
Reflecting Prospective 2006 Reflecting Prospective 2006 AV Profile ID ChangesAV Profile ID Changes
2
Distribution of Sample PrecisionDistribution of Sample Precision
90% Confidence
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Percent Accuracy
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
3
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
1 Day of lowest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 01/09/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
1
(Sunday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
4
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
2 Day of 25th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 05/14/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
2
(Saturday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
5
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
3 Day of median total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 06/25/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
3
(Saturday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
6
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
4 Day of 75th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 05/09/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
4
(Monday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
7
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 09/23/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
8
Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled LRSLRS
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 09/23/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Scaled Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
9
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
Monthly kWh
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan '05 Feb '05 Mar '05 Apr '05 May '05 Jun '05 Jul '05 Aug '05 Sep '05 Oct '05 Nov '05 Dec '05
kW
h
Profile Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
10
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of Absolute kWh Differences
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
kWh Range
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
11
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
<= 0.06 0.07 - 0.08 0.09 - 0.10 0.11 - 0.12 0.13 - 0.14 0.15 - 0.16 0.17 - 0.18 0.19 - 0.20 > 0.20
Sample kWh Range
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
12
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
13
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profilefor 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kWh
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
14
Differences for 1Differences for 1stst Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
15
Differences for 2Differences for 2ndnd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
16
Differences for 3Differences for 3rdrd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
17
Differences for 4Differences for 4thth Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
18
Profile and Unscaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Unscaled Sample Differences
(Unscaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
19
Profile and Scaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Scaled Sample Differences
(Scaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
20
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of kWh Percent Differences[(sample - profile) / sample]
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Percent Difference
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
21
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 60.8% 74.4%Feb '05 57.1% 71.0%Mar '05 62.2% 70.6%Apr '05 57.0% 72.1%
May '05 64.4% 71.4%J un '05 64.0% 79.5%J ul '05 61.5% 79.7%
Aug '05 59.1% 78.5%Sep '05 56.7% 77.1%Oct '05 51.9% 69.5%
Nov '05 54.3% 72.0%Dec '05 61.9% 67.3%
Year 48.7% 66.1%
ProfileLRSLoad Factor
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
22
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 265 280 532 517 49.7% 54.3%Feb '05 234 242 472 464 49.7% 52.1%Mar '05 277 297 479 458 57.9% 64.9%Apr '05 239 253 508 494 47.0% 51.2%
May '05 285 288 544 541 52.3% 53.3%J un '05 395 384 567 579 69.7% 66.3%J ul '05 335 321 661 675 50.6% 47.6%
Aug '05 429 412 599 616 71.7% 66.9%Sep '05 372 352 604 624 61.5% 56.4%Oct '05 318 296 510 532 62.3% 55.7%
Nov '05 282 279 485 488 58.1% 57.3%Dec '05 272 263 529 539 51.4% 48.7%
Year 3,702 3,668 6,491 6,526 57.0% 56.2%
Note: On-Peak is 7 a.m. to 10 p.m., non-holiday weekdays.
On-Peak and Off-Peak kWh
Profile LRS ProfileLRS Profile LRS
On-Peak / Off-PeakOn-Peak kWh Off-Peak kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
23
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
LRS ProfileJ an '05 8.3% 7.8%Feb '05 7.3% 6.9%Mar '05 7.6% 7.4%Apr '05 7.3% 7.3%
May '05 8.0% 8.1%J un '05 9.2% 9.4%J ul '05 9.4% 9.8%
Aug '05 9.8% 10.1%Sep '05 9.1% 9.6%Oct '05 8.1% 8.1%
Nov '05 7.8% 7.5%Dec '05 8.2% 7.9%
Monthly kWh as a Percentage of the Year
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
24
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of Week Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSESun 0.012 0.034 14.2% 0.002Mon -0.011 0.033 12.1% 0.002Tue 0.003 0.038 12.4% 0.002Wed -0.003 0.037 12.6% 0.002Thu -0.003 0.038 12.8% 0.002Fri -0.004 0.038 13.3% 0.002Sat 0.007 0.031 13.1% 0.002
Holiday -0.011 0.029 14.4% 0.001
Month & Year Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSEJ an '05 -2.91E-15 0.029 12.0% 0.001Feb '05 -2.40E-15 0.030 12.3% 0.001Mar '05 -2.56E-15 0.026 11.4% 0.001Apr '05 -4.32E-15 0.024 10.4% 0.001
May '05 -7.62E-16 0.030 12.0% 0.001J un '05 2.21E-15 0.038 11.6% 0.002J ul '05 1.52E-15 0.042 12.9% 0.003
Aug '05 1.05E-15 0.043 12.6% 0.003Sep '05 1.20E-15 0.051 18.0% 0.005Oct '05 -2.63E-15 0.045 16.5% 0.003
Nov '05 -4.73E-15 0.028 11.3% 0.001Dec '05 -3.70E-15 0.037 14.7% 0.002
Year -1.50E-15 0.035 13.0% 0.002
Net Difference
Net Difference
Mean Scaled kWh Differences BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
25
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of WeekSun 0.001 0.002 6.3% 4.82E-06Mon -0.001 0.002 5.2% 4.08E-06Tue 0.000 0.002 4.7% 5.32E-06Wed 0.000 0.002 4.5% 4.18E-06Thu 0.000 0.002 4.6% 4.89E-06Fri 0.000 0.002 5.0% 5.77E-06Sat 0.001 0.002 7.0% 7.72E-06
Holiday -0.001 0.002 8.5% 8.45E-06
Month & YearJ an '05 -4.21E-16 0.002 7.5% 6.96E-06Feb '05 -2.45E-16 0.003 7.3% 1.09E-05Mar '05 -3.50E-16 0.001 4.2% 2.49E-06Apr '05 -3.96E-16 0.001 4.0% 2.69E-06
May '05 -9.92E-17 0.002 5.0% 3.74E-06J un '05 3.17E-16 0.001 2.8% 1.15E-06J ul '05 1.82E-16 0.001 4.4% 3.08E-06
Aug '05 1.49E-16 0.001 3.3% 1.61E-06Sep '05 2.02E-17 0.003 10.7% 1.88E-05Oct '05 -2.46E-16 0.002 4.9% 4.16E-06
Nov '05 -6.64E-16 0.001 3.4% 1.68E-06Dec '05 -4.70E-16 0.002 7.5% 7.58E-06
Year -1.85E-16 0.002 5.4% 5.35E-06
Fraction Difference
Fraction Difference
Average Daily Fraction DifferencesAbs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
Abs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMCOASTCOAST
ERCOTERCOTLoad Research Sample to Load Research Sample to Profile Comparison Profile Comparison
July 24, 2006
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
Reflecting Prospective 2006 Reflecting Prospective 2006 AV Profile ID ChangesAV Profile ID Changes
27
Distribution of Sample PrecisionDistribution of Sample Precision
90% Confidence
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Percent Accuracy
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
28
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
1 Day of lowest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 05/01/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
1
(Sunday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
29
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
2 Day of 25th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 03/30/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
2
(Wednesday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
30
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
3 Day of median total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 10/28/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
3
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
31
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
4 Day of 75th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 10/14/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
4
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
32
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 09/26/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Monday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
33
Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled LRSLRS
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 09/26/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Scaled Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Monday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
34
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
Monthly kWh
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan '05 Feb '05 Mar '05 Apr '05 May '05 Jun '05 Jul '05 Aug '05 Sep '05 Oct '05 Nov '05 Dec '05
kW
h
Profile Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
35
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of Absolute kWh Differences
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
kWh Range
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
36
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
<= 0.06 0.07 - 0.08 0.09 - 0.10 0.11 - 0.12 0.13 - 0.14 0.15 - 0.16 0.17 - 0.18 0.19 - 0.20 > 0.20
Sample kWh Range
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
37
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
38
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profilefor 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kWh
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
39
Differences for 1Differences for 1stst Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
40
Differences for 2Differences for 2ndnd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
41
Differences for 3Differences for 3rdrd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
42
Differences for 4Differences for 4thth Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
43
Profile and Unscaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Unscaled Sample Differences
(Unscaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
44
Profile and Scaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Scaled Sample Differences
(Scaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
45
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of kWh Percent Differences[(sample - profile) / sample]
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Percent Difference
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
46
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 56.9% 70.8%Feb '05 57.8% 71.1%Mar '05 65.8% 69.3%Apr '05 60.2% 64.3%
May '05 52.1% 63.2%J un '05 58.1% 63.1%J ul '05 62.3% 67.1%
Aug '05 62.9% 65.6%Sep '05 64.4% 62.5%Oct '05 61.6% 64.4%
Nov '05 45.7% 69.2%Dec '05 60.6% 66.1%
Year 46.8% 53.4%
ProfileLRSLoad Factor
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
47
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 285 303 515 498 55.4% 60.8%Feb '05 242 256 446 432 54.2% 59.2%Mar '05 290 311 431 410 67.3% 75.8%Apr '05 242 258 442 426 54.8% 60.5%
May '05 300 304 471 468 63.7% 64.9%J un '05 388 406 521 503 74.5% 80.6%J ul '05 332 340 607 599 54.7% 56.7%
Aug '05 423 434 553 542 76.6% 79.9%Sep '05 362 380 574 555 63.0% 68.4%Oct '05 286 311 480 456 59.5% 68.1%
Nov '05 272 297 465 440 58.5% 67.4%Dec '05 261 289 546 518 47.9% 55.7%
Year 3,684 3,887 6,052 5,849 60.9% 66.4%
Note: On-Peak is 7 a.m. to 10 p.m., non-holiday weekdays.
On-Peak and Off-Peak kWh
Profile LRS ProfileLRS Profile LRS
On-Peak / Off-PeakOn-Peak kWh Off-Peak kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
48
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
LRS ProfileJ an '05 8.2% 8.2%Feb '05 7.1% 7.1%Mar '05 7.3% 7.4%Apr '05 6.9% 7.0%
May '05 7.7% 7.9%J un '05 9.9% 9.3%J ul '05 10.0% 9.6%
Aug '05 10.3% 10.0%Sep '05 9.4% 9.6%Oct '05 7.8% 7.9%
Nov '05 7.1% 7.6%Dec '05 8.3% 8.3%
Monthly kWh as a Percentage of the Year
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
49
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of Week Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSESun 0.013 0.029 11.8% 0.001Mon -0.003 0.031 11.0% 0.002Tue -0.007 0.030 10.7% 0.001Wed -0.003 0.032 11.4% 0.002Thu -0.005 0.032 11.4% 0.002Fri -0.003 0.031 11.1% 0.002Sat 0.005 0.029 11.8% 0.001
Holiday 0.013 0.031 12.2% 0.002
Month & Year Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSEJ an '05 -1.51E-15 0.034 12.7% 0.002Feb '05 -1.52E-15 0.032 13.1% 0.002Mar '05 -4.91E-17 0.029 12.1% 0.001Apr '05 1.19E-15 0.025 10.7% 0.001
May '05 1.86E-15 0.023 9.3% 0.001J un '05 1.82E-15 0.033 10.2% 0.002J ul '05 -1.44E-15 0.027 8.7% 0.001
Aug '05 1.01E-15 0.027 8.4% 0.001Sep '05 -6.70E-16 0.037 13.2% 0.002Oct '05 -4.18E-16 0.032 12.4% 0.002
Nov '05 -6.74E-16 0.030 11.7% 0.001Dec '05 -1.53E-15 0.036 13.6% 0.002
Year -1.57E-16 0.030 11.3% 0.001
Net Difference
Net Difference
Mean Scaled kWh Differences BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
50
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of WeekSun 0.002 0.002 7.4% 9.23E-06Mon 0.000 0.002 4.9% 4.29E-06Tue -0.001 0.001 4.5% 3.36E-06Wed 0.000 0.002 5.0% 4.30E-06Thu -0.001 0.002 4.9% 4.44E-06Fri 0.000 0.001 4.0% 3.18E-06Sat 0.001 0.002 6.0% 6.23E-06
Holiday 0.002 0.002 7.1% 6.65E-06
Month & YearJ an '05 -1.32E-16 0.002 5.1% 4.63E-06Feb '05 -3.25E-17 0.002 5.0% 4.71E-06Mar '05 -4.32E-17 0.001 4.5% 3.11E-06Apr '05 2.64E-16 0.002 6.1% 6.85E-06
May '05 2.57E-16 0.001 4.5% 3.74E-06J un '05 1.30E-16 0.002 6.4% 7.72E-06J ul '05 -6.44E-17 0.001 4.2% 2.70E-06
Aug '05 -7.36E-17 0.001 2.9% 1.66E-06Sep '05 -7.19E-17 0.002 6.4% 7.27E-06Oct '05 -1.36E-16 0.002 6.9% 7.40E-06
Nov '05 -1.71E-16 0.002 5.5% 5.08E-06Dec '05 -2.16E-16 0.002 6.0% 5.87E-06
Year -2.47E-17 0.002 5.3% 5.05E-06
Fraction Difference
Fraction Difference
Average Daily Fraction DifferencesAbs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
Abs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMEASTEAST
ERCOTERCOTLoad Research Sample to Load Research Sample to Profile Comparison Profile Comparison
July 24, 2006
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
Reflecting Prospective 2006 Reflecting Prospective 2006 AV Profile ID ChangesAV Profile ID Changes
52
Distribution of Sample PrecisionDistribution of Sample Precision
90% Confidence
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Percent Accuracy
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
53
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
1 Day of lowest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 05/15/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
1
(Sunday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
54
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
2 Day of 25th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 04/11/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
2
(Monday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
55
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
3 Day of median total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 11/04/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
3
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
56
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
4 Day of 75th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 12/16/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
4
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
57
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 12/08/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Thursday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
58
Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled LRSLRS
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 12/08/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Scaled Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Thursday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
59
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
Monthly kWh
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan '05 Feb '05 Mar '05 Apr '05 May '05 Jun '05 Jul '05 Aug '05 Sep '05 Oct '05 Nov '05 Dec '05
kW
h
Profile Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
60
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of Absolute kWh Differences
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
kWh Range
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
61
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
<= 0.06 0.07 - 0.08 0.09 - 0.10 0.11 - 0.12 0.13 - 0.14 0.15 - 0.16 0.17 - 0.18 0.19 - 0.20 > 0.20
Sample kWh Range
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
62
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
63
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profilefor 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kWh
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
64
Differences for 1Differences for 1stst Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
65
Differences for 2Differences for 2ndnd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
66
Differences for 3Differences for 3rdrd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
67
Differences for 4Differences for 4thth Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
68
Profile and Unscaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Unscaled Sample Differences
(Unscaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
69
Profile and Scaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Scaled Sample Differences
(Scaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
70
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of kWh Percent Differences[(sample - profile) / sample]
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Percent Difference
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
71
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 60.4% 55.8%Feb '05 57.6% 56.8%Mar '05 61.1% 57.7%Apr '05 60.0% 55.1%
May '05 53.3% 50.0%J un '05 60.9% 57.7%J ul '05 61.2% 59.3%
Aug '05 63.6% 61.8%Sep '05 60.8% 56.9%Oct '05 57.1% 56.4%
Nov '05 60.1% 55.8%Dec '05 65.9% 45.6%
Year 52.5% 45.1%
ProfileLRSLoad Factor
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
72
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 302 333 529 497 57.0% 67.0%Feb '05 275 295 473 453 58.1% 65.0%Mar '05 309 340 447 416 69.1% 81.7%Apr '05 256 293 458 421 55.9% 69.5%
May '05 319 345 499 473 63.9% 73.0%J un '05 412 443 551 520 74.8% 85.2%J ul '05 331 362 658 627 50.3% 57.7%
Aug '05 406 445 550 511 73.9% 87.2%Sep '05 362 394 573 541 63.1% 72.8%Oct '05 288 324 484 448 59.5% 72.3%
Nov '05 283 323 471 431 60.1% 74.9%Dec '05 305 334 563 535 54.2% 62.4%
Year 3,848 4,230 6,256 5,873 61.5% 72.0%
Note: On-Peak is 7 a.m. to 10 p.m., non-holiday weekdays.
On-Peak and Off-Peak kWh
Profile LRS ProfileLRS Profile LRS
On-Peak / Off-PeakOn-Peak kWh Off-Peak kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
73
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
LRS ProfileJ an '05 8.3% 8.2%Feb '05 7.4% 7.4%Mar '05 7.4% 7.5%Apr '05 7.3% 7.1%
May '05 8.1% 8.1%J un '05 9.7% 9.5%J ul '05 9.7% 9.8%
Aug '05 9.3% 9.5%Sep '05 8.8% 9.3%Oct '05 7.6% 7.6%
Nov '05 7.5% 7.5%Dec '05 9.0% 8.6%
Monthly kWh as a Percentage of the Year
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
74
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of Week Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSESun 0.014 0.031 12.1% 0.001Mon -0.011 0.051 17.8% 0.004Tue -0.005 0.048 16.3% 0.003Wed -0.001 0.048 15.8% 0.003Thu 0.001 0.046 15.0% 0.003Fri -0.003 0.048 16.0% 0.003Sat 0.002 0.038 14.6% 0.002
Holiday 0.013 0.034 13.1% 0.002
Month & Year Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSEJ an '05 3.05E-15 0.043 15.2% 0.003Feb '05 4.03E-15 0.039 14.0% 0.002Mar '05 7.64E-15 0.039 15.3% 0.002Apr '05 2.64E-15 0.043 17.1% 0.003
May '05 3.88E-15 0.035 12.9% 0.002J un '05 5.32E-16 0.050 15.2% 0.004J ul '05 1.60E-15 0.051 15.4% 0.004
Aug '05 4.01E-16 0.047 14.7% 0.003Sep '05 2.61E-15 0.048 15.1% 0.004Oct '05 8.24E-15 0.041 15.8% 0.002
Nov '05 5.55E-15 0.044 16.5% 0.003Dec '05 3.29E-15 0.048 16.2% 0.004
Year 3.63E-15 0.044 15.3% 0.003
Net Difference
Net Difference
Mean Scaled kWh Differences BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
75
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of WeekSun 0.002 0.002 6.4% 4.65E-06Mon -0.001 0.001 4.2% 3.08E-06Tue -0.001 0.001 3.5% 2.16E-06Wed 0.000 0.001 2.6% 1.45E-06Thu 0.000 0.001 3.4% 2.31E-06Fri 0.000 0.001 3.9% 2.64E-06Sat 0.000 0.001 2.9% 1.22E-06
Holiday 0.001 0.002 6.4% 4.46E-06
Month & YearJ an '05 3.70E-16 0.001 3.2% 1.71E-06Feb '05 4.29E-16 0.001 3.8% 2.34E-06Mar '05 9.56E-16 0.001 3.7% 2.13E-06Apr '05 2.71E-16 0.001 4.1% 2.98E-06
May '05 4.90E-16 0.001 4.2% 2.64E-06J un '05 1.15E-16 0.001 3.6% 1.86E-06J ul '05 1.91E-16 0.001 3.0% 1.29E-06
Aug '05 4.56E-17 0.001 2.5% 1.16E-06Sep '05 3.47E-16 0.001 3.8% 2.36E-06Oct '05 1.13E-15 0.001 4.0% 2.51E-06
Nov '05 7.19E-16 0.002 5.6% 5.06E-06Dec '05 2.71E-16 0.002 5.4% 4.36E-06
Year 4.45E-16 0.001 3.9% 2.53E-06
Fraction Difference
Fraction Difference
Average Daily Fraction DifferencesAbs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
Abs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMFWESTFWEST
ERCOTERCOTLoad Research Sample to Load Research Sample to Profile Comparison Profile Comparison
July 24, 2006
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
Reflecting Prospective 2006 Reflecting Prospective 2006 AV Profile ID ChangesAV Profile ID Changes
77
Distribution of Sample PrecisionDistribution of Sample Precision
90% Confidence
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Percent Accuracy
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
78
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
1 Day of lowest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 11/24/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
1
(Thursday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
79
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
2 Day of 25th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 03/14/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
2
(Monday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
80
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
3 Day of median total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 10/24/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
3
(Monday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
81
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
4 Day of 75th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 09/24/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
4
(Saturday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
82
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 08/24/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Wednesday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
83
Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled LRSLRS
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 08/24/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Scaled Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Wednesday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
84
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
Monthly kWh
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan '05 Feb '05 Mar '05 Apr '05 May '05 Jun '05 Jul '05 Aug '05 Sep '05 Oct '05 Nov '05 Dec '05
kW
h
Profile Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
85
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of Absolute kWh Differences
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
kWh Range
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
86
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
<= 0.06 0.07 - 0.08 0.09 - 0.10 0.11 - 0.12 0.13 - 0.14 0.15 - 0.16 0.17 - 0.18 0.19 - 0.20 > 0.20
Sample kWh Range
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
87
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
88
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profilefor 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kWh
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
89
Differences for 1Differences for 1stst Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
90
Differences for 2Differences for 2ndnd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
91
Differences for 3Differences for 3rdrd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
92
Differences for 4Differences for 4thth Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
93
Profile and Unscaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Unscaled Sample Differences
(Unscaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-180
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
94
Profile and Scaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Scaled Sample Differences
(Scaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
95
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of kWh Percent Differences[(sample - profile) / sample]
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Percent Difference
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
96
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 66.0% 67.0%Feb '05 63.3% 72.4%Mar '05 59.4% 75.6%Apr '05 60.7% 61.3%
May '05 61.3% 59.3%J un '05 68.9% 64.3%J ul '05 65.0% 64.9%
Aug '05 71.2% 65.8%Sep '05 72.1% 61.0%Oct '05 63.7% 61.9%
Nov '05 61.1% 66.3%Dec '05 68.2% 60.2%
Year 56.4% 52.1%
ProfileLRSLoad Factor
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
97
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 267 308 550 510 48.5% 60.4%Feb '05 223 263 477 438 46.8% 60.0%Mar '05 258 310 462 410 55.8% 75.7%Apr '05 206 263 481 424 42.9% 62.0%
May '05 250 304 527 473 47.5% 64.2%J un '05 341 412 585 514 58.3% 80.1%J ul '05 286 349 680 617 42.2% 56.5%
Aug '05 373 446 625 552 59.6% 80.7%Sep '05 314 384 634 564 49.5% 68.2%Oct '05 255 313 518 460 49.2% 68.2%
Nov '05 244 295 482 431 50.5% 68.4%Dec '05 253 297 572 528 44.2% 56.2%
Year 3,270 3,943 6,594 5,921 49.6% 66.6%
Note: On-Peak is 7 a.m. to 10 p.m., non-holiday weekdays.
On-Peak and Off-Peak kWh
Profile LRS ProfileLRS Profile LRS
On-Peak / Off-PeakOn-Peak kWh Off-Peak kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
98
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
LRS ProfileJ an '05 8.5% 8.3%Feb '05 7.4% 7.1%Mar '05 7.7% 7.3%Apr '05 7.1% 7.0%
May '05 7.9% 7.9%J un '05 8.8% 9.4%J ul '05 9.3% 9.8%
Aug '05 9.4% 10.1%Sep '05 9.1% 9.6%Oct '05 8.1% 7.8%
Nov '05 7.7% 7.4%Dec '05 8.8% 8.4%
Monthly kWh as a Percentage of the Year
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
99
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of Week Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSESun 0.022 0.048 18.0% 0.003Mon -0.008 0.071 26.4% 0.006Tue -0.007 0.072 26.2% 0.006Wed -0.009 0.069 25.2% 0.006Thu -0.007 0.070 25.6% 0.006Fri -0.005 0.071 26.1% 0.006Sat 0.011 0.061 24.2% 0.004
Holiday 0.015 0.065 26.2% 0.005
Month & Year Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSEJ an '05 -2.13E-15 0.053 21.5% 0.004Feb '05 -2.23E-15 0.056 23.4% 0.004Mar '05 5.93E-16 0.058 25.6% 0.004Apr '05 2.23E-15 0.065 28.3% 0.005
May '05 2.30E-15 0.066 25.9% 0.005J un '05 7.19E-16 0.079 24.5% 0.007J ul '05 -8.08E-16 0.077 23.8% 0.007
Aug '05 -1.17E-15 0.075 22.4% 0.007Sep '05 -5.08E-17 0.087 26.8% 0.009Oct '05 1.08E-15 0.064 25.8% 0.005
Nov '05 -8.82E-16 0.054 23.3% 0.004Dec '05 -3.08E-15 0.058 23.3% 0.004
Year -2.79E-16 0.066 24.5% 0.005
Net Difference
Net Difference
Mean Scaled kWh Differences BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
100
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of WeekSun 0.003 0.003 8.7% 7.97E-06Mon -0.001 0.001 3.6% 2.20E-06Tue -0.001 0.001 3.3% 1.89E-06Wed -0.001 0.001 3.7% 2.44E-06Thu -0.001 0.001 4.0% 3.01E-06Fri -0.001 0.001 3.2% 1.78E-06Sat 0.001 0.001 4.5% 2.88E-06
Holiday 0.002 0.002 8.1% 9.09E-06
Month & YearJ an '05 -3.92E-16 0.001 3.4% 2.02E-06Feb '05 -3.29E-16 0.001 4.0% 3.34E-06Mar '05 3.36E-19 0.001 4.1% 2.83E-06Apr '05 2.73E-16 0.002 5.3% 4.47E-06
May '05 4.40E-16 0.001 4.6% 3.36E-06J un '05 2.26E-17 0.001 3.0% 1.37E-06J ul '05 -4.19E-17 0.001 4.2% 2.38E-06
Aug '05 -1.92E-16 0.001 3.9% 2.11E-06Sep '05 6.30E-17 0.001 4.4% 2.78E-06Oct '05 7.45E-17 0.002 5.8% 4.94E-06
Nov '05 -2.18E-16 0.002 6.2% 5.76E-06Dec '05 -2.36E-16 0.002 5.1% 4.28E-06
Year -4.32E-17 0.001 4.5% 3.30E-06
Fraction Difference
Fraction Difference
Average Daily Fraction DifferencesAbs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
Abs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNCENTNCENT
ERCOTERCOTLoad Research Sample to Load Research Sample to Profile Comparison Profile Comparison
July 24, 2006
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
Reflecting Prospective 2006 Reflecting Prospective 2006 AV Profile ID ChangesAV Profile ID Changes
102
Distribution of Sample PrecisionDistribution of Sample Precision
90% Confidence
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Percent Accuracy
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
103
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
1 Day of lowest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 05/15/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
1
(Sunday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
104
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
2 Day of 25th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 03/31/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
2
(Thursday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
105
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
3 Day of median total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 11/22/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
3
(Tuesday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
106
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
4 Day of 75th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 09/08/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
4
(Thursday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
107
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 12/09/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
108
Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled LRSLRS
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 12/09/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Scaled Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
109
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
Monthly kWh
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan '05 Feb '05 Mar '05 Apr '05 May '05 Jun '05 Jul '05 Aug '05 Sep '05 Oct '05 Nov '05 Dec '05
kW
h
Profile Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
110
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of Absolute kWh Differences
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
kWh Range
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
111
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
<= 0.06 0.07 - 0.08 0.09 - 0.10 0.11 - 0.12 0.13 - 0.14 0.15 - 0.16 0.17 - 0.18 0.19 - 0.20 > 0.20
Sample kWh Range
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
112
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
113
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profilefor 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kWh
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
114
Differences for 1Differences for 1stst Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
115
Differences for 2Differences for 2ndnd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
116
Differences for 3Differences for 3rdrd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
117
Differences for 4Differences for 4thth Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
118
Profile and Unscaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Unscaled Sample Differences
(Unscaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-200
-180
-160
-140
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
119
Profile and Scaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Scaled Sample Differences
(Scaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
120
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of kWh Percent Differences[(sample - profile) / sample]
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Percent Difference
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
121
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 57.3% 64.5%Feb '05 55.4% 71.6%Mar '05 56.0% 72.4%Apr '05 60.0% 65.1%
May '05 48.7% 59.6%J un '05 55.2% 60.0%J ul '05 53.1% 61.9%
Aug '05 55.4% 64.3%Sep '05 52.1% 62.5%Oct '05 51.7% 61.9%
Nov '05 53.9% 70.0%Dec '05 56.1% 59.7%
Year 46.5% 53.7%
ProfileLRSLoad Factor
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
122
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 335 314 510 531 65.8% 59.1%Feb '05 277 268 435 444 63.7% 60.4%Mar '05 315 313 417 419 75.4% 74.8%Apr '05 249 252 425 421 58.6% 59.9%
May '05 299 303 464 459 64.4% 66.0%J un '05 405 407 494 492 82.1% 82.7%J ul '05 349 345 591 595 59.2% 58.0%
Aug '05 440 443 536 533 82.0% 83.2%Sep '05 362 367 537 533 67.4% 68.8%Oct '05 298 302 458 454 65.0% 66.6%
Nov '05 283 293 443 433 63.9% 67.7%Dec '05 314 309 539 545 58.3% 56.6%
Year 3,926 3,916 5,848 5,859 67.1% 66.8%
Note: On-Peak is 7 a.m. to 10 p.m., non-holiday weekdays.
On-Peak and Off-Peak kWh
Profile LRS ProfileLRS Profile LRS
On-Peak / Off-PeakOn-Peak kWh Off-Peak kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
123
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
LRS ProfileJ an '05 8.7% 8.6%Feb '05 7.5% 7.3%Mar '05 7.5% 7.5%Apr '05 6.7% 6.9%
May '05 7.8% 7.8%J un '05 9.2% 9.2%J ul '05 9.9% 9.6%
Aug '05 10.2% 10.0%Sep '05 9.3% 9.2%Oct '05 7.5% 7.7%
Nov '05 7.2% 7.4%Dec '05 8.5% 8.7%
Monthly kWh as a Percentage of the Year
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
124
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of Week Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSESun -0.004 0.025 11.6% 0.001Mon 0.000 0.030 10.2% 0.001Tue 0.006 0.030 9.8% 0.002Wed 0.006 0.031 10.1% 0.002Thu 0.004 0.031 10.3% 0.002Fri -0.002 0.029 10.3% 0.002Sat -0.009 0.026 11.4% 0.001
Holiday -0.001 0.029 12.8% 0.001
Month & Year Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSEJ an '05 -2.61E-15 0.034 12.0% 0.002Feb '05 -2.12E-15 0.027 10.0% 0.001Mar '05 6.76E-16 0.021 8.8% 0.001Apr '05 2.29E-15 0.023 9.9% 0.001
May '05 2.92E-15 0.029 11.7% 0.002J un '05 1.13E-15 0.030 10.1% 0.001J ul '05 -4.83E-17 0.032 10.6% 0.002
Aug '05 6.32E-16 0.028 9.2% 0.001Sep '05 1.32E-15 0.032 10.9% 0.002Oct '05 -5.87E-16 0.024 9.8% 0.001
Nov '05 -2.70E-16 0.029 11.6% 0.002Dec '05 -2.71E-15 0.035 12.1% 0.002
Year 5.84E-17 0.029 10.6% 0.001
Net Difference
Net Difference
Mean Scaled kWh Differences BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
125
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of WeekSun 0.000 0.001 5.6% 4.00E-06Mon 0.000 0.001 4.3% 3.58E-06Tue 0.001 0.002 4.2% 3.96E-06Wed 0.001 0.002 5.1% 5.33E-06Thu 0.000 0.002 4.2% 3.86E-06Fri 0.000 0.001 4.1% 3.43E-06Sat -0.001 0.001 5.1% 2.91E-06
Holiday 0.000 0.002 7.3% 5.66E-06
Month & YearJ an '05 -3.21E-16 0.002 7.7% 8.79E-06Feb '05 -3.16E-16 0.002 4.6% 3.85E-06Mar '05 4.00E-17 0.001 3.7% 1.96E-06Apr '05 2.67E-16 0.001 3.3% 2.15E-06
May '05 2.93E-16 0.002 5.1% 3.72E-06J un '05 1.51E-16 0.001 4.0% 2.99E-06J ul '05 4.85E-17 0.002 5.4% 4.08E-06
Aug '05 5.83E-17 0.001 3.3% 1.64E-06Sep '05 1.22E-16 0.001 3.8% 2.27E-06Oct '05 1.31E-17 0.001 2.8% 1.70E-06
Nov '05 -9.31E-17 0.002 5.7% 4.72E-06Dec '05 -3.54E-16 0.002 7.3% 8.90E-06
Year -6.36E-18 0.002 4.7% 3.91E-06
Fraction Difference
Fraction Difference
Average Daily Fraction DifferencesAbs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
Abs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMNORTHNORTH
ERCOTERCOTLoad Research Sample to Load Research Sample to Profile Comparison Profile Comparison
July 24, 2006
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
Reflecting Prospective 2006 Reflecting Prospective 2006 AV Profile ID ChangesAV Profile ID Changes
127
Distribution of Sample PrecisionDistribution of Sample Precision
90% Confidence
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Percent Accuracy
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
128
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
1 Day of lowest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 03/12/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
1
(Saturday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
129
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
2 Day of 25th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 03/09/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
2
(Wednesday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
130
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
3 Day of median total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 11/10/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
3
(Thursday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
131
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
4 Day of 75th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 03/16/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
4
(Wednesday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
132
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 09/23/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
133
Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled LRSLRS
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 09/23/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Scaled Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
134
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
Monthly kWh
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan '05 Feb '05 Mar '05 Apr '05 May '05 Jun '05 Jul '05 Aug '05 Sep '05 Oct '05 Nov '05 Dec '05
kW
h
Profile Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
135
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of Absolute kWh Differences
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
kWh Range
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
136
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
<= 0.06 0.07 - 0.08 0.09 - 0.10 0.11 - 0.12 0.13 - 0.14 0.15 - 0.16 0.17 - 0.18 0.19 - 0.20 > 0.20
Sample kWh Range
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
137
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
138
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profilefor 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kWh
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
139
Differences for 1Differences for 1stst Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
140
Differences for 2Differences for 2ndnd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
141
Differences for 3Differences for 3rdrd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
142
Differences for 4Differences for 4thth Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
143
Profile and Unscaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Unscaled Sample Differences
(Unscaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
144
Profile and Scaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Scaled Sample Differences
(Scaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
145
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of kWh Percent Differences[(sample - profile) / sample]
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Percent Difference
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
146
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 46.4% 61.5%Feb '05 54.3% 66.1%Mar '05 52.3% 73.2%Apr '05 45.8% 63.3%
May '05 46.7% 62.1%J un '05 53.1% 62.4%J ul '05 51.7% 60.2%
Aug '05 53.0% 64.9%Sep '05 50.0% 60.7%Oct '05 51.6% 62.4%
Nov '05 51.9% 71.5%Dec '05 44.6% 53.1%
Year 42.8% 52.0%
ProfileLRSLoad Factor
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
147
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 295 302 565 559 52.2% 54.0%Feb '05 253 261 493 485 51.3% 53.8%Mar '05 282 311 481 452 58.7% 68.7%Apr '05 226 263 503 465 45.0% 56.6%
May '05 273 303 540 510 50.6% 59.4%J un '05 368 405 585 547 62.9% 74.0%J ul '05 319 349 684 654 46.7% 53.3%
Aug '05 423 451 621 592 68.1% 76.2%Sep '05 365 386 631 610 57.9% 63.2%Oct '05 298 309 519 509 57.3% 60.7%
Nov '05 293 299 490 483 59.7% 62.0%Dec '05 285 292 585 577 48.8% 50.7%
Year 3,680 3,931 6,696 6,445 55.0% 61.0%
Note: On-Peak is 7 a.m. to 10 p.m., non-holiday weekdays.
On-Peak and Off-Peak kWh
Profile LRS ProfileLRS Profile LRS
On-Peak / Off-PeakOn-Peak kWh Off-Peak kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
148
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
LRS ProfileJ an '05 8.6% 8.3%Feb '05 7.1% 7.2%Mar '05 7.5% 7.3%Apr '05 7.0% 7.0%
May '05 7.8% 7.8%J un '05 9.2% 9.2%J ul '05 9.5% 9.7%
Aug '05 9.7% 10.1%Sep '05 9.4% 9.6%Oct '05 8.3% 7.9%
Nov '05 7.4% 7.5%Dec '05 8.5% 8.4%
Monthly kWh as a Percentage of the Year
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
149
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of Week Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSESun 0.011 0.032 12.6% 0.002Mon -0.015 0.043 15.9% 0.003Tue 0.000 0.049 15.9% 0.004Wed -0.001 0.052 16.6% 0.004Thu -0.005 0.046 15.3% 0.003Fri -0.005 0.047 15.6% 0.004Sat 0.014 0.043 14.5% 0.004
Holiday -0.003 0.032 14.2% 0.002
Month & Year Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSEJ an '05 -1.85E-15 0.047 17.4% 0.004Feb '05 -6.33E-15 0.036 13.8% 0.002Mar '05 -3.69E-15 0.043 18.4% 0.003Apr '05 -3.72E-16 0.046 18.9% 0.003
May '05 -2.65E-15 0.045 16.6% 0.003J un '05 -1.12E-15 0.056 16.3% 0.005J ul '05 -2.59E-15 0.050 14.1% 0.004
Aug '05 -2.16E-15 0.048 13.3% 0.004Sep '05 -3.98E-15 0.054 15.3% 0.005Oct '05 -4.64E-15 0.037 13.1% 0.003
Nov '05 -3.53E-15 0.034 12.4% 0.002Dec '05 -2.45E-15 0.035 12.3% 0.002
Year -2.93E-15 0.044 15.2% 0.003
Net Difference
Net Difference
Mean Scaled kWh Differences BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
150
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of WeekSun 0.001 0.002 6.1% 5.18E-06Mon -0.002 0.002 6.1% 5.62E-06Tue 0.000 0.002 5.0% 4.22E-06Wed 0.000 0.002 5.2% 4.95E-06Thu -0.001 0.002 5.1% 5.08E-06Fri -0.001 0.002 5.8% 5.62E-06Sat 0.002 0.002 7.6% 9.15E-06
Holiday 0.000 0.001 4.9% 2.70E-06
Month & YearJ an '05 -3.35E-16 0.003 8.8% 1.06E-05Feb '05 -7.19E-16 0.002 5.4% 5.43E-06Mar '05 -4.94E-16 0.002 7.5% 8.84E-06Apr '05 -1.54E-16 0.002 5.5% 5.00E-06
May '05 -3.84E-16 0.002 6.3% 6.10E-06J un '05 -1.12E-16 0.002 5.6% 4.65E-06J ul '05 -1.29E-16 0.002 5.9% 5.21E-06
Aug '05 -1.13E-16 0.001 3.5% 2.44E-06Sep '05 -2.92E-16 0.001 3.8% 2.20E-06Oct '05 -5.50E-16 0.002 4.9% 3.70E-06
Nov '05 -3.55E-16 0.002 5.5% 5.03E-06Dec '05 -1.59E-16 0.002 7.1% 8.25E-06
Year -3.14E-16 0.002 5.8% 5.64E-06
Fraction Difference
Fraction Difference
Average Daily Fraction DifferencesAbs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
Abs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSCENTSCENT
ERCOTERCOTLoad Research Sample to Load Research Sample to Profile Comparison Profile Comparison
July 24, 2006
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
Reflecting Prospective 2006 Reflecting Prospective 2006 AV Profile ID ChangesAV Profile ID Changes
152
Distribution of Sample PrecisionDistribution of Sample Precision
90% Confidence
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Percent Accuracy
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
153
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
1 Day of lowest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 02/26/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
1
(Saturday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
154
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
2 Day of 25th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 10/08/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
2
(Saturday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
155
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
3 Day of median total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 04/13/05
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
3
(Wednesday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
156
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
4 Day of 75th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 07/09/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
4
(Saturday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
157
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 09/16/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
158
Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled LRSLRS
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 09/16/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Scaled Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
159
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
Monthly kWh
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan '05 Feb '05 Mar '05 Apr '05 May '05 Jun '05 Jul '05 Aug '05 Sep '05 Oct '05 Nov '05 Dec '05
kW
h
Profile Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
160
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of Absolute kWh Differences
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
kWh Range
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
161
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
<= 0.06 0.07 - 0.08 0.09 - 0.10 0.11 - 0.12 0.13 - 0.14 0.15 - 0.16 0.17 - 0.18 0.19 - 0.20 > 0.20
Sample kWh Range
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
162
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
163
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profilefor 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kWh
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
164
Differences for 1Differences for 1stst Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
165
Differences for 2Differences for 2ndnd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
166
Differences for 3Differences for 3rdrd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
167
Differences for 4Differences for 4thth Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
168
Profile and Unscaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Unscaled Sample Differences
(Unscaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-450
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
169
Profile and Scaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Scaled Sample Differences
(Scaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
170
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of kWh Percent Differences[(sample - profile) / sample]
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Percent Difference
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
171
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 40.0% 71.5%Feb '05 36.1% 73.3%Mar '05 28.4% 72.4%Apr '05 34.8% 73.2%
May '05 38.0% 73.4%J un '05 38.5% 80.1%J ul '05 41.5% 75.4%
Aug '05 37.7% 78.4%Sep '05 25.1% 76.0%Oct '05 24.1% 69.4%
Nov '05 38.8% 69.2%Dec '05 25.6% 66.2%
Year 21.5% 65.0%
ProfileLRSLoad Factor
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
172
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 266 280 521 508 51.1% 55.1%Feb '05 226 245 484 464 46.6% 52.8%Mar '05 294 307 482 469 61.1% 65.3%Apr '05 286 281 514 520 55.7% 54.0%
May '05 328 306 545 567 60.2% 54.0%J un '05 432 398 560 594 77.2% 66.9%J ul '05 358 335 674 697 53.1% 48.1%
Aug '05 488 442 586 631 83.3% 70.1%Sep '05 473 364 533 643 88.6% 56.6%Oct '05 395 311 472 557 83.5% 55.8%
Nov '05 305 285 472 492 64.7% 57.9%Dec '05 262 257 527 531 49.7% 48.5%
Year 4,113 3,810 6,369 6,673 64.6% 57.1%
Note: On-Peak is 7 a.m. to 10 p.m., non-holiday weekdays.
On-Peak and Off-Peak kWh
Profile LRS ProfileLRS Profile LRS
On-Peak / Off-PeakOn-Peak kWh Off-Peak kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
173
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
LRS ProfileJ an '05 7.2% 7.5%Feb '05 7.5% 6.8%Mar '05 7.1% 7.4%Apr '05 7.6% 7.6%
May '05 8.3% 8.3%J un '05 9.5% 9.5%J ul '05 9.6% 9.8%
Aug '05 9.5% 10.2%Sep '05 9.4% 9.6%Oct '05 8.3% 8.3%
Nov '05 7.6% 7.4%Dec '05 8.5% 7.5%
Monthly kWh as a Percentage of the Year
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
174
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of Week Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSESun -0.018 0.046 20.8% 0.004Mon 0.002 0.073 23.3% 0.014Tue 0.014 0.075 22.2% 0.016Wed 0.019 0.084 23.9% 0.019Thu -0.009 0.061 21.7% 0.006Fri -0.007 0.064 22.8% 0.007Sat -0.002 0.057 21.4% 0.006
Holiday 0.001 0.054 22.0% 0.005
Month & Year Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSEJ an '05 -2.78E-15 0.057 22.9% 0.006Feb '05 -2.17E-15 0.060 24.5% 0.006Mar '05 -3.30E-15 0.045 18.6% 0.004Apr '05 -3.57E-15 0.045 16.6% 0.004
May '05 3.11E-15 0.048 17.2% 0.004J un '05 6.69E-16 0.067 20.2% 0.008J ul '05 1.43E-15 0.059 17.1% 0.007
Aug '05 1.25E-16 0.065 18.4% 0.007Sep '05 2.66E-16 0.112 31.2% 0.034Oct '05 -1.60E-15 0.098 31.7% 0.024
Nov '05 -2.92E-15 0.071 27.1% 0.011Dec '05 -2.87E-15 0.058 22.2% 0.006
Year -1.12E-15 0.065 22.3% 0.010
Net Difference
Net Difference
Mean Scaled kWh Differences BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
175
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of WeekSun -0.002 0.003 12.8% 1.59E-05Mon 0.000 0.003 8.6% 1.42E-05Tue 0.001 0.003 8.4% 1.63E-05Wed 0.002 0.004 10.4% 3.17E-05Thu -0.001 0.003 8.7% 1.42E-05Fri -0.001 0.003 9.6% 1.91E-05Sat 0.000 0.004 11.3% 2.48E-05
Holiday 0.000 0.003 10.4% 1.39E-05
Month & YearJ an '05 -3.09E-16 0.003 10.1% 1.98E-05Feb '05 -2.26E-16 0.005 12.4% 3.20E-05Mar '05 -4.78E-16 0.002 5.4% 5.28E-06Apr '05 -3.75E-16 0.001 4.5% 3.04E-06
May '05 3.64E-16 0.001 4.2% 2.85E-06J un '05 6.65E-17 0.002 7.2% 7.61E-06J ul '05 4.51E-16 0.002 6.2% 5.89E-06
Aug '05 4.79E-17 0.002 7.1% 8.86E-06Sep '05 -8.99E-17 0.006 18.4% 4.95E-05Oct '05 -1.65E-16 0.006 18.7% 4.31E-05
Nov '05 -3.44E-16 0.005 14.9% 3.75E-05Dec '05 -2.79E-16 0.004 11.3% 1.96E-05
Year -1.10E-16 0.003 10.0% 1.94E-05
Fraction Difference
Fraction Difference
Average Daily Fraction DifferencesAbs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
Abs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMSOUTHSOUTH
ERCOTERCOTLoad Research Sample to Load Research Sample to Profile Comparison Profile Comparison
July 24, 2006
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
Reflecting Prospective 2006 Reflecting Prospective 2006 AV Profile ID ChangesAV Profile ID Changes
177
Distribution of Sample PrecisionDistribution of Sample Precision
90% Confidence
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Percent Accuracy
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
178
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
1 Day of lowest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 03/13/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
1
(Sunday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
179
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
2 Day of 25th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 08/06/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
2
(Saturday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
180
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
3 Day of median total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 01/21/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
3
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
181
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
4 Day of 75th percentile total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 09/07/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
4
(Wednesday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
182
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 07/01/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
183
Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled Profile and Sample Comparison: Scaled LRSLRS
5 Day of highest total absolute kWh difference for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
Comparison for 07/01/05
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
Interval
kW
h
Scaled Sample Profile Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit
5
(Friday)
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
184
Profile and Sample ComparisonProfile and Sample Comparison
Monthly kWh
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan '05 Feb '05 Mar '05 Apr '05 May '05 Jun '05 Jul '05 Aug '05 Sep '05 Oct '05 Nov '05 Dec '05
kW
h
Profile Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
185
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of Absolute kWh Differences
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
kWh Range
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
186
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
<= 0.06 0.07 - 0.08 0.09 - 0.10 0.11 - 0.12 0.13 - 0.14 0.15 - 0.16 0.17 - 0.18 0.19 - 0.20 > 0.20
Sample kWh Range
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
187
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Statistically Significant Differences
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
188
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profilefor 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kWh
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
189
Differences for 1Differences for 1stst Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
190
Differences for 2Differences for 2ndnd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
191
Differences for 3Differences for 3rdrd Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
192
Differences for 4Differences for 4thth Quarter 2005 Quarter 2005
Median Differences -- Scaled Sample minus Profile
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
kW
h
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Hol
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
193
Profile and Unscaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Unscaled Sample Differences
(Unscaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
194
Profile and Scaled Sample DifferencesProfile and Scaled Sample Differences
(Scaled Sample minus Profile) vs. Profile for 01/01/05 thru 12/31/05
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Profile Interval kWh
Pe
rce
nt
Dif
fere
nc
e
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression on Profile kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
195
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Distribution of kWh Percent Differences[(sample - profile) / sample]
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Percent Difference
Inte
rva
l Co
un
t
Unscaled Sample Scaled Sample
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
196
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 57.4% 52.0%Feb '05 52.7% 55.3%Mar '05 47.2% 57.8%Apr '05 57.0% 57.5%
May '05 58.2% 54.8%J un '05 62.4% 59.4%J ul '05 58.7% 61.0%
Aug '05 59.1% 63.0%Sep '05 56.0% 57.5%Oct '05 55.5% 60.9%
Nov '05 46.2% 54.4%Dec '05 48.9% 46.3%
Year 45.0% 45.1%
ProfileLRSLoad Factor
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
197
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
J an '05 282 334 555 502 50.8% 66.4%Feb '05 244 294 499 449 48.8% 65.5%Mar '05 273 343 484 413 56.3% 83.0%Apr '05 237 286 474 425 49.9% 67.3%
May '05 265 323 518 459 51.0% 70.4%J un '05 344 411 563 495 61.0% 83.1%J ul '05 287 352 675 610 42.4% 57.7%
Aug '05 357 427 581 510 61.5% 83.7%Sep '05 306 380 604 531 50.6% 71.5%Oct '05 265 325 514 454 51.6% 71.4%
Nov '05 255 324 497 428 51.4% 75.8%Dec '05 256 332 612 537 41.9% 61.8%
Year 3,369 4,131 6,576 5,814 51.2% 71.1%
Note: On-Peak is 7 a.m. to 10 p.m., non-holiday weekdays.
On-Peak and Off-Peak kWh
Profile LRS ProfileLRS Profile LRS
On-Peak / Off-PeakOn-Peak kWh Off-Peak kWh
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
198
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
LRS ProfileJ an '05 8.3% 8.4%Feb '05 7.7% 7.5%Mar '05 7.1% 7.6%Apr '05 6.9% 7.2%
May '05 8.0% 7.9%J un '05 9.2% 9.1%J ul '05 10.1% 9.7%
Aug '05 9.3% 9.4%Sep '05 9.5% 9.2%Oct '05 7.6% 7.8%
Nov '05 7.4% 7.6%Dec '05 8.9% 8.7%
Monthly kWh as a Percentage of the Year
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
199
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of Week Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSESun 0.027 0.068 27.9% 0.006Mon -0.005 0.094 35.1% 0.011Tue -0.005 0.092 33.8% 0.011Wed -0.008 0.094 35.0% 0.011Thu -0.009 0.096 36.3% 0.012Fri -0.016 0.105 41.5% 0.014Sat 0.012 0.079 32.6% 0.008
Holiday 0.023 0.087 37.3% 0.009
Month & Year Absolute Diff Absolute % Diff RMSEJ an '05 2.75E-15 0.091 36.0% 0.011Feb '05 4.18E-15 0.085 33.0% 0.010Mar '05 7.17E-15 0.087 37.2% 0.010Apr '05 4.65E-15 0.081 35.3% 0.008
May '05 2.84E-15 0.073 29.7% 0.007J un '05 8.96E-16 0.093 30.7% 0.011J ul '05 -1.70E-15 0.089 28.5% 0.011
Aug '05 3.44E-16 0.090 29.5% 0.010Sep '05 3.16E-15 0.092 30.5% 0.011Oct '05 8.09E-15 0.085 36.7% 0.009
Nov '05 4.63E-15 0.094 41.6% 0.011Dec '05 2.53E-15 0.115 46.7% 0.017
Year 3.29E-15 0.090 34.6% 0.010
Net Difference
Net Difference
Mean Scaled kWh Differences BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
200
Profile and Sample DifferencesProfile and Sample Differences
Day of WeekSun 0.003 0.003 10.1% 1.63E-05Mon -0.001 0.002 5.3% 4.63E-06Tue -0.001 0.002 5.1% 5.74E-06Wed -0.001 0.002 5.7% 6.00E-06Thu -0.001 0.002 6.4% 7.41E-06Fri -0.002 0.002 7.6% 7.88E-06Sat 0.001 0.002 7.1% 9.94E-06
Holiday 0.003 0.003 8.9% 8.08E-06
Month & YearJ an '05 2.81E-16 0.002 6.3% 7.32E-06Feb '05 5.06E-16 0.004 10.6% 2.02E-05Mar '05 9.47E-16 0.003 9.6% 1.39E-05Apr '05 5.91E-16 0.002 4.7% 4.12E-06
May '05 5.04E-16 0.002 5.7% 4.43E-06J un '05 1.77E-16 0.002 5.1% 3.99E-06J ul '05 -1.79E-16 0.002 7.0% 1.02E-05
Aug '05 1.46E-16 0.002 6.3% 5.74E-06Sep '05 3.98E-16 0.002 7.0% 8.15E-06Oct '05 9.31E-16 0.002 5.7% 7.07E-06
Nov '05 5.64E-16 0.002 6.6% 6.64E-06Dec '05 2.95E-16 0.002 7.3% 8.58E-06
Year 4.29E-16 0.002 6.8% 8.30E-06
Fraction Difference
Fraction Difference
Average Daily Fraction DifferencesAbs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
Abs. Fraction Diff Abs. % Fraction Diff RMSE
BUSNODEMBUSNODEMWESTWEST
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