epidemics and management decisions kari arnold, a.j. campbell, neil mcroberts
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Epidemics and Management Decisions
Kari Arnold, A.J. Campbell, Neil McRoberts
Concerns in Leafroll Management• Is leafroll spreading in California?
– Yes, Golino et. al. 2008, Oakville study (GLRaV-3)• How is it spreading?
– Patterns, rate, epidemiology– Mealybugs, scale insects
• Late 1980’s, initial discovery, now more real than ever• Can we control the vector? • Where are they coming from?• If I remove and replace a block, how quickly will it become re-infected?
• Certified stock– Why invest in certified wood if my block will just become re-
infested?• Region Based Management
– What if I decide to control leafroll, but my neighbors don’t?
Biology Impacts Epidemiological Characteristics of a Disease
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• Vectors– Acquisition/transmission/
persistence– Life cycles – Mode of travel
(crawling/flying/nematodes)
• Spores– Wind spread/rain splash– Life cycles
• Humans– Machinery/clothing– Grafting
• Weather Patterns– Wind/Rain/Drought– Temperature
• Point of entry on host– Seed borne– Soil borne– Susceptible tissue
• Monocyclic/Polycyclic– Primary inoculum sources– Secondary inoculum sources
The Importance of Mapping
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“An epidemic is the progress of disease in TIME and SPACE”
Kranz, J. 1990. Epidemics, their mathematical analysis and modeling: An introduction. In: Epidemics of Plant Diseases: Mathematical Analysis and Modeling, 2nd Edn. Springer, Berlin.
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1 1 2 3 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 1 5 5 0 5 3 5 5 2 1 3 0 2 1 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 02 5 2 5 5 5 5 0 2 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 3 5 2 3 5 3 3 1 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 5 0 5 5 3 5 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 0 0 0 3 3 5 1 0 5 3 5 5 5 5 1 1 2 5 2 3 3 5 5 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 53 5 1 3 5 5 5 5 2 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 5 2 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 5 2 2 2 5 2 2 3 2 5 5 5 0 0 3 2 2 3 3 2 1 2 1 0 2 2 3 1 3 2 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 5 3 5 5 0 0 5 1 1 3 1 1 3 0 0 0 3 5 0 3 5 0 0 0 05 5 2 5 3 2 3 5 2 5 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 3 3 3 3 2 1 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 5 2 5 2 3 5 5 5 0 0 3 0 2 2 5 1 2 2 1 2 3 5 2 1 2 5 3 0 5 0 0 2 0 5 5 0 1 3 5 5 0 5 1 3 5 1 2 2 3 0 2 5 5 0 2 0 0 0 0 02 5 1 5 2 3 2 2 2 5 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 3 5 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 5 2 3 5 2 2 2 5 5 0 0 3 5 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 5 3 3 1 3 3 5 2 3 0 0 3 0 0 5 0 2 3 5 0 0 5 1 5 5 1 2 2 0 0 2 3 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 03 5 1 3 2 5 2 5 2 5 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 5 2 2 2 1 0 5 5 0 1 5 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 5 0 2 2 1 2 5 3 2 3 0 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5 years of census data*
The Importance of Mapping
5 2 0 0 0 0 5 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 5 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 4 1 3 0 5 0 0 2 0 5 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 4 5 4 4 3 0 5 5 5 3 4 5 5 0 3 2 2 2 0 5 0 5 0 4 0 42 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 5 3 2 3 1 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 5 3 3 5 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 2 3 5 0 0 0 2 0 5 1 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 0 0 0 3 5 4 5 5 3 5 5 5 0 3 5 5 5 0 3 2 2 2 0 3 0 5 0 3 0 05 0 5 2 0 0 0 5 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 5 3 2 3 3 3 3 5 2 2 2 2 1 3 5 2 2 5 5 5 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 1 5 1 3 0 0 5 5 1 0 4 3 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 0 3 4 5 4 5 5 0 5 2 0 0 5 0 5 1 2 2 2 5 2 0 2 4 0 02 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 5 4 5 2 2 1 2 4 3 3 3 3 0 4 5 5 5 0 0 2 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 3 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 3 5 0 0 5 5 1 2 2 2 5 3 0 0 0 0 02 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 2 1 1 2 2 2 5 4 4 1 3 1 3 3 3 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 4 5 4 5 2 0 5 5 5 5 5 0 3 1 5 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 3 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 0 0 3 1 2 1 5 4 0 0 5 0 4 4 5 5 0 1 5 3 2 2 2 5 2 0 2 1 0 00 2 0 5 0 0 5 5 2 1 1 2 2 2 4 5 4 1 3 1 3 4 2 5 5 5 5 2 2 3 5 5 4 3 3 5 5 5 0 4 0 5 2 2 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 5 4 0 0 3 2 2 2 5 2 5 2 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 2 4 2 5 5 0 0 5 2 01 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 4 3 5 4 5 3 1 2 2 5 5 4 2 4 0 5 5 5 4 5 5 1 2 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 5 3 5 2 5 0 0 5 5 0 0 5 2 2 5 0 2 5 2 0 2 0 0 00 2 0 3 0 0 0 4 2 1 2 2 2 4 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 5 5 3 5 5 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 2 5 5 3 5 5 4 0 5 2 2 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 5 2 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 0 4 3 3 2 5 2 4 2 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 5 5 3 4 0 2 5 2 0 2 0 0 10 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 2 3 2 3 2 5 3 2 3 3 2 5 5 2 5 5 5 2 2 3 4 5 5 4 5 3 5 4 5 3 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 5 0 1 0 5 3 1 3 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 4 2 0 4 5 5 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 5 5 2 5 0 2 0 2 2 1 0 0 20 0 0 3 0 0 5 2 2 1 2 2 4 4 2 5 4 2 4 2 3 5 3 3 5 5 4 2 2 2 3 5 5 5 3 1 5 5 0 2 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 5 3 1 3 0 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 0 0 0 0 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 0 2 5 5 5 0 0 5 5 1 5 0 2 2 5 0 1 0 0 00 2 0 4 0 0 5 2 2 2 2 3 4 2 4 5 5 4 3 4 2 4 2 2 5 5 5 2 1 2 4 5 5 5 3 2 5 3 5 2 0 0 5 0 3 5 0 5 3 0 0 5 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 5 4 5 3 5 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 00 2 0 5 0 5 0 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 5 2 2 4 3 4 2 3 1 2 5 5 5 2 1 2 4 5 4 3 5 3 5 2 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 2 4 0 0 5 3 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 4 1 0 5 00 0 0 5 0 5 0 5 2 2 2 4 2 5 5 2 3 5 5 5 4 2 1 2 4 5 5 2 2 2 5 5 5 0 0 4 5 3 5 5 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 5 3 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 4 0 5 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 5 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 4 1 5 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 2 2 4 2 5 2 3 5 3 4 4 4 1 2 3 4 5 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 5 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 5 0 0 0 5 0 5 5 4 5 0 5 0 2 0 5 2 2 0 5 2 3 3 50 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 2 2 4 2 2 4 5 3 3 4 4 2 1 1 2 3 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 3 1 2 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 0 0 0 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 3 5 5 0 1 2 0 4 2 2 0 3 2 2 2 00 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 2 2 4 2 2 2 5 4 4 2 3 3 1 1 2 2 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5 4 0 5 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 5 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 2 3 0 4 2 2 5 5 2 5 5 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 2 5 4 2 2 0 2 4 1 2 50 2 0 0 0 5 5 2 3 2 2 1 2 5 2 2 5 4 4 3 3 5 1 1 1 2 5 5 2 5 5 0 5 4 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 1 1 4 5 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 4 3 4 0 3 0 3 5 3 4 4 5 0 5 0 5 1 0 0 4 5 4 0 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 00 0 0 0 0 5 5 2 3 2 1 2 2 0 2 2 5 5 4 4 2 5 1 1 1 3 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 4 5 5 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 1 3 4 0 0 4 0 0 4 2 3 5 0 5 0 0 5 2 0 0 5 4 5 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 0
TIME and SPACE
Epidemiology
TIME
% I
NCI
DEN
CE
5 2 0 0 0 0 5 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 5 3 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 4 1 3 0 5 0 0 2 0 5 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 4 5 4 4 3 0 5 5 5 3 4 5 5 0 3 2 2 2 0 5 0 5 0 4 0 42 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 5 3 2 3 1 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 5 3 3 5 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 2 3 5 0 0 0 2 0 5 1 5 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 0 0 0 3 5 4 5 5 3 5 5 5 0 3 5 5 5 0 3 2 2 2 0 3 0 5 0 3 0 05 0 5 2 0 0 0 5 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 5 3 2 3 3 3 3 5 2 2 2 2 1 3 5 2 2 5 5 5 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 1 5 1 3 0 0 5 5 1 0 4 3 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 5 0 3 4 5 4 5 5 0 5 2 0 0 5 0 5 1 2 2 2 5 2 0 2 4 0 02 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 5 4 5 2 2 1 2 4 3 3 3 3 0 4 5 5 5 0 0 2 1 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 3 4 3 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 3 5 0 0 5 5 1 2 2 2 5 3 0 0 0 0 02 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 2 1 1 2 2 2 5 4 4 1 3 1 3 3 3 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 4 5 4 5 2 0 5 5 5 5 5 0 3 1 5 0 0 5 0 0 4 0 3 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 0 0 3 1 2 1 5 4 0 0 5 0 4 4 5 5 0 1 5 3 2 2 2 5 2 0 2 1 0 00 2 0 5 0 0 5 5 2 1 1 2 2 2 4 5 4 1 3 1 3 4 2 5 5 5 5 2 2 3 5 5 4 3 3 5 5 5 0 4 0 5 2 2 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 5 4 0 0 3 2 2 2 5 2 5 2 0 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 2 4 2 5 5 0 0 5 2 01 2 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 4 3 5 4 5 3 1 2 2 5 5 4 2 4 0 5 5 5 4 5 5 1 2 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 5 3 5 2 5 0 0 5 5 0 0 5 2 2 5 0 2 5 2 0 2 0 0 00 2 0 3 0 0 0 4 2 1 2 2 2 4 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 5 5 3 5 5 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 2 5 5 3 5 5 4 0 5 2 2 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 5 2 1 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 4 0 4 3 3 2 5 2 4 2 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 5 5 3 4 0 2 5 2 0 2 0 0 10 2 0 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 2 3 2 3 2 5 3 2 3 3 2 5 5 2 5 5 5 2 2 3 4 5 5 4 5 3 5 4 5 3 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 5 0 1 0 5 3 1 3 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 4 2 0 4 5 5 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 5 5 2 5 0 2 0 2 2 1 0 0 20 0 0 3 0 0 5 2 2 1 2 2 4 4 2 5 4 2 4 2 3 5 3 3 5 5 4 2 2 2 3 5 5 5 3 1 5 5 0 2 0 0 0 5 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 5 3 1 3 0 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 0 0 0 0 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 0 2 5 5 5 0 0 5 5 1 5 0 2 2 5 0 1 0 0 00 2 0 4 0 0 5 2 2 2 2 3 4 2 4 5 5 4 3 4 2 4 2 2 5 5 5 2 1 2 4 5 5 5 3 2 5 3 5 2 0 0 5 0 3 5 0 5 3 0 0 5 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 5 4 5 3 5 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 2 00 2 0 5 0 5 0 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 5 2 2 4 3 4 2 3 1 2 5 5 5 2 1 2 4 5 4 3 5 3 5 2 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 2 4 0 0 5 3 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 4 1 0 5 00 0 0 5 0 5 0 5 2 2 2 4 2 5 5 2 3 5 5 5 4 2 1 2 4 5 5 2 2 2 5 5 5 0 0 4 5 3 5 5 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 5 3 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 4 0 5 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 5 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 4 1 5 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 2 2 4 2 5 2 3 5 3 4 4 4 1 2 3 4 5 2 2 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 5 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 5 0 0 0 5 0 5 5 4 5 0 5 0 2 0 5 2 2 0 5 2 3 3 50 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 2 2 4 2 2 4 5 3 3 4 4 2 1 1 2 3 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 3 1 2 2 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 0 0 0 5 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 3 5 5 0 1 2 0 4 2 2 0 3 2 2 2 00 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 2 2 4 2 2 2 5 4 4 2 3 3 1 1 2 2 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5 4 0 5 0 0 5 2 0 0 0 5 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 3 2 3 0 4 2 2 5 5 2 5 5 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 2 5 4 2 2 0 2 4 1 2 50 2 0 0 0 5 5 2 3 2 2 1 2 5 2 2 5 4 4 3 3 5 1 1 1 2 5 5 2 5 5 0 5 4 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 5 5 0 0 0 5 1 1 4 5 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 4 3 4 0 3 0 3 5 3 4 4 5 0 5 0 5 1 0 0 4 5 4 0 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 00 0 0 0 0 5 5 2 3 2 1 2 2 0 2 2 5 5 4 4 2 5 1 1 1 3 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 4 5 5 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 1 3 4 0 0 4 0 0 4 2 3 5 0 5 0 0 5 2 0 0 5 4 5 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 0
Random Introduction of Infection Events (Wind, machinery etc) neighboring blocks matter*
0%-5% 1
1
Aggregation Stage, spread is predominantly within the block, with small levels of random infection events
25%-50%+ 2 22 2 2
3 2 31 2 32 2
22 2 2
3 2 22 3 3 3
2 31 2 2 2
Random Infections and Aggregated Infections less successful*, great source of inoculum
70%+2 2 3 32 2 2 5 2 5 53 2 2 3 5 2 5 3 52 1 2 1 2 2 2 2
2 1 2 3 1 1 35 1 2 2 1 3 3 25 5 1 1 2 3 2 23 2 3 3 2 1 2 35 2 5 2 2 1 2 25 5 5 5 2 3 2 1 2 35 5 5 3 1 2 3 1 2 2
Quality and disease supply chains in the wine industry
FPSNurseriesor othersources
Production Consumers
$
Supply of quality
Disease
Disease increases production costs, reduces efficiencyof supply of quality per unit effort along the chain
Disease supply chain interactions in maintaining vine block health
I
R
H
r
C
β
FPSNurseriesor othersources
Production Consumers
r c
Some things areonly controlled inproduction
β
Some things areonly controlled byinteractions
Interaction model of block health
I
R
H
r
C
β
RRHcIdt
dR
IHrHRdt
dH
IRcIrHdt
dI
)1(
)1(
Production Chain
Baseline prediction using leafroll group guesstimates of parameter values
From low initial infection,system stabilizes with:
66% Infected blocks28% Healthy blocks (no LR)6% blocks in rotation
What is the effect of keeping blocks out of production for longer?
Fallow cleared blocks for oneseason:
62% Infected blocks27% Healthy blocks (no LR)11% blocks in rotation
3-3.5% reduction in Infected blocks1.5% reduction in Healthy blocks5% increase in blocks in rotation
Net gain (?) because blocks coming out of rotation are more likely to be healthy
Decrease inter-block spread?
57% Infected blocks37% Healthy blocks (no LR)6% blocks in rotation
10% reduction in Infected blocks10% increase in Healthy blocks<1% decrease in blocks in rotation
Big gain in healthy blocks (10% compared with baseline). Is it feasible?
Production
Where is it coming from?The predominant reason for reinfection and spread is…
…NEARBY INFECTED BLOCKS.
My neighbor’s leafroll is my leafroll….
My leafroll is my neighbor’s leafroll….
My leafroll is my leafroll….
What if I do, but Others Don’t?
Is there a tipping point for area wide disease management in terms of GLRaV-3?
Analysis of subjectivities about leafroll disease management among California grape growers and winemakers
Analysis/Results• Initial PCA via MVSP (37 individuals)• Approx. 16% similarity– Approx. 84% different– 37 people, 37 distinctly different opinions (Grp.1)
-4 -2 0 2 4
-4-2
02
4
Axis 1 [%Variance=14.1]
Axi
s 2
[%V
aria
nce
=9.1
]
-4 -2 0 2 4
-4-2
02
4
A
-4 -2 0 2 4
-4-2
02
4
Axis 3 [%Variance=8.5]
Ax
is 2
[%
Va
ria
nc
e=
9.1
]
-4 -2 0 2 4
-4-2
02
4
B
Certified Wood
EUREKA!EVERYONE FEELS
STRONGLY ABOUT THE CERTIFICATION
PROCESS AND VIRUS TESTING…YEAH!
Bridging the GapInitial group, production side
Second group, predominantly nursery growers
-20 -10 0 10 20
-20
-10
010
20
Axis 1
Axi
s 2
-20 -10 0 10 20
-20
-10
010
20
A
-20 -10 0 10 20
-20
-10
010
20
Axis 3
Axi
s 2
-20 -10 0 10 20
-20
-10
010
20
B
Bridging the Gap
Nurseries feel strongly about these issuesAND concerns differ based on your business goals
-20 -10 0 10 20
-20
-10
010
20
Axis 1
Axi
s 2
-20 -10 0 10 20
-20
-10
010
20
A
-20 -10 0 10 20
-20
-10
010
20
Axis 3
Axi
s 2
-20 -10 0 10 20
-20
-10
010
20
B
These 6 statements enforced the importance of virus testing and the certification program in
terms of leafroll management
Bridging the Gap
Try to see the world from the other person’s perspective.
Build good relationships within the supply chain, and nurture those relationships. Work with each other.
Honesty is a good thing.
Remember* you may not realize what you have, until it’s gone….
Leafroll Symptoms (depending on grape variety and leafroll type)
Red fall color in red varietiesGreen vein banding
Rolling under of leaves in some varieties
Reduced vigorReduced yieldIrregular/delayed ripening of fruitReduced sugar content in fruit
Don’t be fooled…Potassium deficiency?Girdling?J rooting?Pierce’s disease?Other viruses?…
Leafroll…
How can I be sure?
Diagnostic Tests Sampling Structures
COMPOSITE SAMPLE vs. INDIVIDUAL SAMPLEEx. 5 vines per sample *1 vine per sample Benefit:More field coverage
Set back:Not a good estimate of disease incidence in field
Benefit:Better estimate of disease incidence in field
Set back:Less field coverage
Ask yourself:What do I want to know about my block?
What do I intend to sample?
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 10 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 00 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
COMPOSITE SAMPLE vs. INDIVIDUAL SAMPLEEx. 5 vines per sample *1 vine per sample Benefit:More field coverage
Set back:Not a good estimate of disease incidence in field
Benefit:Better estimate of disease incidence in field
Set back:Less field coverage
Sampling StructuresWhat do I want to know about my block?
What do I intend to sample?
Symptom Based vs. “Blind” Sampling• Verification of visual
symptoms in red varieties in the “fall”
• If assessing incidence (%) without mapping entire block, make sampling plan prior to entering block to avoid positive bias*
• Many white varieties• Sauvignon blanc?
• Need an estimate of incidence or knowledge of infested areas prior to symptom expression
Sampling in the Real World• Large Cabernet Block• Blind Sample*
needed an estimate of disease incidence in January
• Wanted to know disease incidence and locations of leafroll-3 and red blotch to help in deciding on block removal
How do we sample for something we know so little about?
Red Blotch
Enter Neil and A.J. – assess what we do know
• Data collection, going to the field: what are we looking for?
• Vineyard maps: what is the current situation?
• Epidemiological analysis: what does it all mean?
• Recommendations: what can we advise based on the data?
Learning symptoms and making maps
• Analyze data covering multiple years to obtain a clearer picture of virus “spread”
• Characterize Red Blotch patterns statistically to allow sample size/reliability calculations
What do we want to know?
Rate of Increase
*based on initial data; a more accurate picture may emerge with more information
Potential development of Red Blotch epidemics over time based on parameters gathered from Cab. Sauv. blocks at Oakville station
Potential Disease Progress Curves
Data collected in 3 blocks over 3 year period
Characterizing patchiness – the key to sampling efficiency
• Develop best management plans for different types/sizes of vineyard operations to facilitate use of sampling
How Many Samples Do I Take?
Mean disease incidenceDisease patchiness index
Group size (composite size)Desired confidenceinterval
nNumber of samples
It depends on your goals
Sampling at the Vine LevelCanes
Petioles
*At least 2 samples, 1 from each cordon (more is better)
Talk to your diagnostics lab….
Visual sampling can be accurate and people can quickly become proficient
Disease Ratings PCR result0 neg0 neg0 neg1 neg1 neg1 neg2 neg2 neg2 pos3 pos3 pos3 pos4 pos4 pos4 pos5 pos5 pos5 neg
Visual ratings against PCR resultsin 12 Zinfandel vines
Visual rating PCR- PCR+<=2 8 1>2 1 8
0.9 0.10.1 0.9
True Negative Proportion
False Positive Proportion = 1-TNP
True Positive Proportion
False Negative Proportion = 1-TPP
LR+= 8LR-= 0.125
For decision-making under uncertainty, the likelihoodratios are important
¿Want more details?
http://qbelab.plantpathology.ucdavis.edu/working-papers/
Acknowledgements• American Viticulture Foundation• Dominus Estates• Study participants and Workgroup members• FPS, Deborah Golino, Michael Anderson, Neil
McRoberts, Bob Gilbertson, QBE lab colleagues• Mark Lubell and the Environmental Pol. Lab• Monica Cooper with UCCE• Current and past Plant Path grads• Grapevines, mealybugs, and leafroll • VIRUSES!!
http://qbelab.plantpathology.ucdavis.eduQuestions/Concerns/Comments?
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