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Energy Systems Laboratory p. 1
Jeff Haberl, Bahman Yazdani, Charles CulpEnergy Systems Laboratory
Texas Engineering Experiment StationTexas A&M University System
STATEWIDE AIR EMISSIONS CALCULATIONS FROM ENERGY
EFFICIENCY, WIND AND RENEWABLES
May 2008
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 2
Electricity Production from Wind Farms (2002-2007)
• Installed capacity of wind turbines was 3,026 MW (March 2007).• Announced new project capacity is 3,125 MW by 2010. • Lowest electricity period occurs during Ozone Season Period.
Texas Wind Power Generation (Source: ERCOT & PUC)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Sep-01
Dec-01
Mar-02
Jun-02
Sep-02
Dec-02
Mar-03
Jun-03
Sep-03
Dec-03
Mar-04
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Win
d Po
wer
Gen
erat
ion
(MW
H)
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity (M
W)
Ercot Data - MWH Ercot Data - MW
Total Installed Capacity in Ercot Area by 2006 Total Installed Capacity in Texas by 2006
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 3
Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms
What issues did TCEQ ask ESL to resolve to calculate OSP NOx reductions from wind farms in the base year?
Capacity Factors Using NOAA Daily Models
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Capa
city F
acto
r
Measured CF (Oct 01 to Sep 02) 1999 CF2000 CF 2001 CF2002 CF 2003 CF2004 CF 2005 CFAverage CF (1999-2005)
OSP
Large variations in measured power vs base year power production in the OSP.
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 4
Next, looked at hourly electricity produced vs NOAA wind data.
Issue: too much scatter.
Hourly Turbine Power vs. Wind Speed (On-site)
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50On-site Wind Speed (MPH)
Tu
rbin
e P
ow
er
(kW
h/h
)
Hourly Turbine Power vs. Wind Speed (NOAA)
0
10
20
30
40
50
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0
NOAA Wind Speed (MPH)
Tu
rbin
e P
ow
er
(kW
h/h
)
Hourly electricity produced vs on-site wind data acceptable for hourly modeling.
Issue: hourly on-site data not always available.
Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 5
Next, compared daily on-site wind data vs daily NOAA data
Result: Daily data was acceptable when frequency of occurrence was similar.
Daily Wind Speed (10/2001-9/2002)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
On-Site Wind Speed (MPH)
Avera
ge D
aily N
OA
A W
ind
Sp
eed
(MP
H)
Wind Speed Distribution (Oct. 2001 to Sep. 2002)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Wind Speed (MPH)
Freq
uenc
y of
Occ
urre
nce
On-site Wind Speed
NOAA Wind Speed
Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 6
Next, compared NOAA and on-site daily models to see how well the predicted OSP electricity production. (Result: acceptable).
Capacity Factors Using Daily Models
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 J an-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 J un-02 J ul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02
Month
Cap
acit
y F
acto
r
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ave
rag
e D
aily
Win
d
Sp
eed
Per
Mo
nth
(m
ph
)
Measured CF NOAA Daily Model CFOn-site Daily Model CF On-site Wind Speed
NOAA Wind SpeedOSP
Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 7
OSD MWh Savings (Preliminary Estimates)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
MW
h/O
SD
Final Issue: TCEQ asked ESL to develop an integrated tool to project NOx reductions from wind farms through 2020 by county, using eGRID, including:
+ discount,
+ degradation,
+ T&D losses &
+ growth.
Energy savings summary: (program wise)
Base year 1999Projection year 2020
Adjustment factors
Annual degradation
factor5 5.00%
T&D loss 0.00%Initial discount
factor625.00%
Growth factorAccording to SB 20, section 39.904
Calculating NOx Reductions from Wind Farms
OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2005 Cum.2006
Cum.2007
Cum.2008
Cum.2009
Cum.2010
Cum.2011
Cum.2012
Cum.2013
Cum.2014
Cum.2015
Cum.2016
Cum.2017
Cum.2018
Cum.2019
Cum.2020
To
ns/O
zon
e S
easo
n D
ay
ESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program)SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal BuildingsFurnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-Multifamily
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 8
Upgrade ImpactUse NOx Avg.Life Factor
Industries: 60% 23% 5 – 20 yr 1 – 5Vehicles: 19% 54% 7 – 10 yr 4 – 5Buildings: 21% 22% 25 – 50 yr 5 – 11
Buildings substantially impact emissions!
SOURCE: Statewide Use: USDOE/EIA, 1999 Statewide Emissions: TNRCC 2000
IntroductionEnergy Emissions and Impact Factor
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 9
Total OSD NOx Emissions Reductions
(SF, MF and Commercial Buildings)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
HA
RR
IST
AR
RA
NT
CO
LL
IND
AL
LA
SB
EX
AR
TR
AV
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EN
TO
NW
ILL
IAM
SO
NE
L P
AS
OM
ON
TG
OM
ER
GA
LV
ES
TO
NB
RA
ZO
RIA
CO
MA
LR
OC
KW
AL
LH
AY
SN
UE
CE
SF
OR
T B
EN
DE
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ISJO
HN
SO
NG
UA
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LU
PE
KA
UF
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MIT
HB
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EG
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WE
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WIL
SO
NH
AR
DIN
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ISO
NW
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RU
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HU
RR
US
KH
OO
DH
UN
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HID
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GO
CA
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RO
NB
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LW
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BB
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PR
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JIM
WE
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SC
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AG
OR
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NA
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AM
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BR
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ITU
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BO
RD
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County
OS
D N
Ox
Em
issi
on
s R
edu
ctio
ns
(To
ns/
yr)
Single Family Houses Multifamily House Commercial Buildings Natural Gas (SF+MF+Commercial)
Non-attainment and Affected Counties Other ERCOT Counties
NOx emissions reductions calculated from new residential and commercial construction using EPA’s eGRID and AP-42 (Result: 10.75 tons/OSD).
Energy Efficiency Reporting
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 10
ESL-single family (MWh/county)
ESL-multifamily (MWh/county)
PUC-SB7 (MWh/PCA)
PUC-SB5 (MWh/PCA)
SECO (MWh/PCA)
Wind-ERCOT (MWh/PCA)
Energy Savings Summary
2007 Annual eGrid (25%)
2007 OSD eGrid (25%)
NOx emissions reduction by
program
NOx emissions reduction by SIP
area
NOx emissions reduction by
county
NOx emissions reduction by
program
NOx emissions reduction by SIP
area
NOx emissions reduction by
county
ESL-single family (MWh/county)
ESL-multifamily (MWh/county)
PUC-SB7 (MWh/PCA)
PUC-SB5 (MWh/PCA)
SECO (MWh/PCA)
Wind-ERCOT (MWh/PCA)
Energy Savings Summary
2007 Annual eGrid (25%)
2007 OSD eGrid (25%)
NOx emissions reduction by
program
NOx emissions reduction by SIP
area
NOx emissions reduction by
county
NOx emissions reduction by
program
NOx emissions reduction by SIP
area
NOx emissions reduction by
county
In 2005 the TCEQ initiated a program to determine integrated NOx emissions savings (2013 and beyond) to allow for savings to be reported to the EPA
State Agencies included:– TEES/ESL, – PUC, – SECO, – ERCOT/Wind
Savings Integration allows:– Annual, OSD savings– By County– By SIP– By Program– Integration tool = Adjustable Discount, Degradation, T&D losses
Integrated NOx Savings
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 11
OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
2005 Cum.2006
Cum.2007
Cum.2008
Cum.2009
Cum.2010
Cum.2011
Cum.2012
Cum.2013
Cum.2014
Cum.2015
Cum.2016
Cum.2017
Cum.2018
Cum.2019
Cum.2020
To
ns/
Ozo
ne
Sea
son
Day
ESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program)SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal BuildingsFurnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-Multifamily
Cumulative NOx emissions reductions calculated across state programs (2013)
Code Compliance (10.75 tons/day)Federal Buildings (0.81 tons/day)Furnace Pilot Lights (0.32
tons/day)PUCs SB7,SB5 programs (4.78
tons/day)SECO Political Sub. (0.84
tons/day)Green Power (Wind) (12.32
tons/day)SEER 13 Retrofits (11.03 tons/day)Total (40.86 tons/day)
Integrated NOx Savings: Results
Annual Reporting to the TCEQ, papers, QAPP, etc.
OSD NOx Reduction Levels (All ERCOT)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2005 Cum.2006
Cum.2007
Cum.2008
Cum.2009
Cum.2010
Cum.2011
Cum.2012
Cum.2013
Cum.2014
Cum.2015
Cum.2016
Cum.2017
Cum.2018
Cum.2019
Cum.2020
To
ns/O
zon
e S
eas
on
Da
y
ESL-Single Family ESL-Multifamily PUC (SB7) PUC (SB5 grant program)SECO Wind-ERCOT ESL-Commercial Federal BuildingsFurnace Pilot Light Program SEER13-Single Family SEER13-Multifamily
Energy Systems Laboratory p. 12
ESL CONTACT INFORMATION
Jeff Haberl: jeffhaberl@tees.tamus.edu
Bahman Yazdani: bahmanyazdani@tees.tamus.edu
Charles Culp: charlesculp@tees.tamus.edu
http://eslsb5.tamu.edu
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