emerging issues in food safety - webinar archive

Emerging Issues in Food SafetyWhere will we be in 2020?

Serban Teodoresco

February 4, 2010

Serban TeodorescoPresident, Preventa

Ed LonerganPresident & CEO

Agenda

Introduction

Objectives

Process

Results

Bob GravaniCornell University

John LambThe World Bank

Dave EdwardsNSF - CMI

Key Team Members

Catherine Francois

Charles Seaman

Consumer Goods Forum

Diversey

Jessica Wigram Consumer Goods Forum

Mike Thomas NSF-CMI

Objectives

Provide the opportunity and framework to the largest possible number of experts to share ideas on emerging issues in Food Safety in 2020

Celebrate past achievements (GFSI 10 years) … perfect opportunity to look into the next 10 years Celebrate past achievements (GFSI 10 years) … perfect opportunity to look into the next 10 years

The Need

HIGH RISK

HIGH IMPACT

INDUSTRY AT FULL CAPACITY(Avg. industry sectors at 60%-70%)

COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT

The Process

““””

Underestimating the future is a time-honored tradition.

The Process

ESTABLISH A FRAMEWORK (KEY DRIVERS)ESTABLISH A FRAMEWORK (KEY DRIVERS)

SCENARIO PLANNINGSCENARIO PLANNING22

The Framework (Key Drivers)

Environment Technology

Political &Economical

Industry Associations

Food SafetyFood Safety

Regulation

Socio-Cultural(consumers)

The Survey

37 questions

9% response rate(3% -5% as benchmark for non incentivized surveys)

Sent to 3,900 people

SURVEY RESULTS

Demographics by Industry

Manufacturer – 25%

Consultant – 11%

Retailer – 24%

NGO – 8%

Certification Body– 16%

Accreditation Body – 5%

Government – 3%

Food Service – 4%

Academia – 4%

Demographics by Job Position

Manager – 41%

CEO/Exec Level – 18%

Senior Executive – 32%

Other/Not Specified – 9%

Demographics by Region

Western Europe – 41%

North America – 28%

Latin America – 4%

Eastern Europe –5%

Asia/Australia – 17%

Africa/Middle East – 5%

SURVEY QUESTION #4What will be the top 3 Food Safety Issues in 2020?

1. Biological Risks / Microbial Safety

3. Contaminants / Chemical & Physical

2. Supply Chain

SURVEY QUESTION #5Where will problems occur?

SURVEY QUESTION #11Will food safety become integral to sustainability?

SURVEY QUESTION #14Bar codes and RFID will enable food industry to collect extensive data.Sharing this information will reduce food safety incidents.

SURVEY QUESTION #15Will consumers reject nanotechnologies and ask for regulations?

SURVEY QUESTION #18Consumers will have full access to regulatory inspections / ratings.

Question 27: How will consumers rank the following

SURVEY QUESTION #27How will consumers rank the following:

1. Food Safety

3. Health & Wellness

2. Food Prices

4. Environment

5. Food Security

SURVEY QUESTION #28Resistance to pay premium for organic and fair trade.

SURVEY QUESTION #29Food industry should pro-actively address obesity, nutrition, food security.

SURVEY QUESTION #32Intentional incidents will have a bigger impact than unintentional.

SURVEY QUESTION #34Availability and access to safe food will be a major political and economic threat to international security

SURVEY QUESTION #35Increased competition for raw materials, supplies and market share will increase frequency of food fraud.

Summary

Food Safety and Sustainability will merge.Food Safety and Sustainability will merge.11

Difficult to predict the impact of new technologies before they are tested in the market place.Difficult to predict the impact of new technologies before they are tested in the market place.

Food Safety will remain the #1 concern for consumers. Food Safety will remain the #1 concern for consumers. 33

Panel Perspective

Industry Perspective

Geographic Perspective

Job PositionPerspective

Bob GravaniCornell University

Industry Perspective

NY Yankees Baseball Hall of Fame catcher Yogi Berra once

““””

It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the Future

In 2020, I think the following three food safety issues will dominate the activities of the food

system throughout the world

Industry Sector Choice #1 Choice #2 Choice #3

Manufacturers Biological Risk Contaminants(Chem/Phys)

Supply Chain

Retailers Biological Risk Supply Chain Contaminants(Chem/Phys)

Government Biological Risk Supply Chain GFSI/Standards

NGOs Biological Risk Food Security Contaminants(Chem/Phys)

QUESTION #5In 2020, where do you think food safety problems are MOST likely to occur?

QUESTION #32By 2020, bioterrorism (intentional incidents) will have a bigger impact on the food industry than unintentional food safety incidents.

The poisoner’s Handbook

QUESTION #32By 2020, bio-terrorism (intentional incidents) will have a bigger impact on the food industry than unintentional food safety incidents.

Take Home Messages

Build a culture of food safety in your organizationBuild a culture of food safety in your organization

Supply chain management is key; build a partnership with your suppliers

Harmonization of standards, audits & auditor competence are essential

Strengthen GAPs, GMPs & HACCP Strengthen GAPs, GMPs & HACCP

John LambThe World Bank

Geographic Perspective

John E. Lamb, Agribusiness Team Leader,John E. Lamb, Agribusiness Team Leader,Agriculture and Rural Development DepartmentAgriculture and Rural Development Department

World Bank, Washington, DCWorld Bank, Washington, DC

Emerging Issues in Food Safety:Emerging Issues in Food Safety:A Geographic PerspectiveA Geographic Perspective

Global Food Safety Conference Consumer Goods Forum Global Food Safety Conference Consumer Goods Forum Washington DC – 4 February 2010Washington DC – 4 February 2010

Why might geography matter?Why might geography matter? The nature, incidence and severity of food The nature, incidence and severity of food

safety challenges will be influenced by shifts safety challenges will be influenced by shifts in:in: DemographicsDemographics Economic growthEconomic growth InnovationInnovation Industry structure and conduct Industry structure and conduct Public policyPublic policy Resource constraintsResource constraints Climate changeClimate change

DemographicsDemographics

Population—absolute population as starting Population—absolute population as starting point, then rate of changepoint, then rate of change

Geographic shifts—rural/urban breakdown, Geographic shifts—rural/urban breakdown, rate of urbanizationrate of urbanization

Ethnic composition--diversity Ethnic composition--diversity Age distribution—youth bulge vs. elderly, Age distribution—youth bulge vs. elderly,

economically active portioneconomically active portion

Economic GrowthEconomic Growth Point of departure—size of overall and food Point of departure—size of overall and food

economyeconomy Rate of growth—per capita GDP, food consumption Rate of growth—per capita GDP, food consumption Structure of growth—goods vs services, role of Structure of growth—goods vs services, role of

agriculture, degree of concentrationagriculture, degree of concentration Disposable income—food share of household Disposable income—food share of household

budgetbudget Eating at home vs. awayEating at home vs. away Dietary upgrading—bulk vs packaged, starchy foods Dietary upgrading—bulk vs packaged, starchy foods

vs. proteins and produce, staples to snacks. shelf vs. proteins and produce, staples to snacks. shelf stable vs. freshstable vs. fresh

InnovationInnovation Changes in productivity –e.g. high-yielding or Changes in productivity –e.g. high-yielding or

resistant varieties, changes in systems of production resistant varieties, changes in systems of production or processingor processing

New product developmentNew product development Value additionValue addition Transport, handling and distribution technologyTransport, handling and distribution technology IT advances IT advances Traceability systemsTraceability systems Adoption of GAP, GMP, GDP, GLP, HACCPAdoption of GAP, GMP, GDP, GLP, HACCP Detection methods for pathogens, Detection methods for pathogens,

adulterants, additivesadulterants, additives

Industry Structure and ConductIndustry Structure and Conduct

Degree of concentrationDegree of concentration Procurement practicesProcurement practices Arms-length sourcingArms-length sourcing Length and complexity of supply chainsLength and complexity of supply chains Use of standards, certification, benchmarkingUse of standards, certification, benchmarking Interindustry collaborationInterindustry collaboration Private-public cooperationPrivate-public cooperation

Public PolicyPublic Policy

Prioritization for public investment Prioritization for public investment Food safety philosophyFood safety philosophy Balance between technical analysis and Balance between technical analysis and

political economy considerationspolitical economy considerations Global versus sovereign viewpointGlobal versus sovereign viewpoint Regulatory approach chosenRegulatory approach chosen Public-private cooperationPublic-private cooperation

Resource ConstraintsResource Constraints

Scarcity of productive landScarcity of productive land Soil degradationSoil degradation Water scarcity and qualityWater scarcity and quality Competition for scarce public and donor Competition for scarce public and donor

resourcesresources

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Rise of global mean surface temperatureRise of global mean surface temperature Increased frequency and severity of extreme Increased frequency and severity of extreme

weather eventsweather events Nature of impactsNature of impacts Distribution of impactsDistribution of impacts Degree of resilienceDegree of resilience Adaptation measures Adaptation measures

What can be said about geography What can be said about geography in the Survey Results?in the Survey Results?

There is no consistent pattern of responses There is no consistent pattern of responses associated with geography, howeverassociated with geography, however

There is an apparent consensus across There is an apparent consensus across regions and countries biological/microbial regions and countries biological/microbial hazards are the greatest concernhazards are the greatest concern

And that supply chain considerations such as And that supply chain considerations such as traceability and use of GFSI will continue to be traceability and use of GFSI will continue to be crucial crucial

..this is because…..this is because…

The nature, incidence and severity of food The nature, incidence and severity of food safety challenges will be influenced by shifts in: safety challenges will be influenced by shifts in: (1) demographics; (2) economic growth; (3) (1) demographics; (2) economic growth; (3) innovation; (4) industry structure and conduct; innovation; (4) industry structure and conduct; (5) public policy; (6) resource constraints; and (5) public policy; (6) resource constraints; and (7) climate change(7) climate change

These major influencing factors interact with each These major influencing factors interact with each other in complex ways, the relative importance of other in complex ways, the relative importance of each one will vary by context, and they will not each one will vary by context, and they will not respect borders, so it is not feasible to forecast their respect borders, so it is not feasible to forecast their relative importance without a complex modeling relative importance without a complex modeling exercise, that may exceed the bounds of available exercise, that may exceed the bounds of available data and understanding of causal linkages or even data and understanding of causal linkages or even correlationscorrelations

Dave EdwardsNSF-CMI

Job Position Perspective

Nanotechnologies are rapidly emerging as the “new” GMO and raising concerns with consumers. By 2020, consumers will reject the nanotechnologies and ask for strict regulations.

Consumer Crisis Prediction Framework

Management Team

Surveillance

Prerequisites

Newsworthy

Plausibility

Ubiquitous*

Political

BLOCKERS

PUSHERS

Media Triggers

• Media Triggers– Conflict– Blame– Cover up– Human interest– High profile

organisations or personalities

– Signal value (what next?)

– Visual impact– Links to sex/crime

Consumer Reaction

• Fright Factors– Affects me– Unknown effects– Involuntary– New/novel– Inescapable– Manmade– Hidden and

irreversible– Children or

pregnant women (future generations)

Issue in technical area.

Not mediaSome media interest Major media attention Scare

‘trigger event’

Source: NSF International

By 2020, in the retail and restaurant sectors, it will be the norm for consumers to have full access to regulatory inspection reports and customer ratings.

Summary

48% of CEOs currently believe nanotechnologies will be a difficult “sell” to consumers… They are right.48% of CEOs currently believe nanotechnologies will be a difficult “sell” to consumers… They are right.

If the industry believes there are benefits to be had then address the “fear factors” and be transparent and honest

A freedom of information culture (regulatory) may well transfer to private standards by 2020.. Are you ready for that debate ?

QUESTIONS & ANSWERS

emerging issues in food safety - webinar archive

survey question

food industry

food safety issues

food safety incidents

food system

safe food

food service

food safetywhere

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